BROKERED CONVENTION UNLIKELY
The two great "never happens again" in presidential politics are the Electoral College/House finale and the "brokered" nominating convention where the delegates actually go in not knowing who will win.
We have come close lately though, on the first count, with the contested 2000 election, which almost qualified- George Bush didn't get the majority of the raw vote, and then one elector from DC bailed out on Gore.
But we have not had a truly "up for grabs" convention in either party since 1976 and the Reagan/Ford contest.
This time around I expect the Democrats will quickly decide on either Hillary or Barack and their convention will be a snoozer.
For a Republican convention to be wide open, there needs to be a bunch of candidates hanging around and picking up delegates, but not taking charge. With Rudy Giuliani and his big swoon of late, I don't see that happening. He doesn't have any chance to win a primary soon, or even do well until too late in the process. That said, we will see a quick winnowing out. If Romney holds off Huckabee in Iowa, he cruises into New Hampshire and Michigan, then South Carolina, and the race is between him and whoever his nearest rival is there. If Romney is bumped off in Iowa and then McCain wins New Hampshire, he's out and again, it's the top two guys in South Carolina. (Thompson might at least come in second in South Carolina in some scenarios).
No matter how it plays out, I think it comes down as it did 8 years ago to South Carolina, and then Super Tuesday voters will be looking at just the two top vote getters.
Some pundits have said it would be constructive to have a wide open convention- it would be a sort of coming out party for the new blood of activists in the GOP. I see just the opposite. There doesn't seem to be a new generation of Republicans emerging yet. Much of that has to do with the Bush family and how it hasn't opened up positions to young Republican leaders. The VP position has been wasted on the goofy Dan Quayle and the tough minded Dick Cheney,an insider with no further ambitions. The most well known cabinet appointments, Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice, were RINO bureaucrats never interested in running for office. And there are simply too many Alberto Gonzales/Harriet Miers people running around the Bush White House.
Congressional Republicans have not been much better. If you are a hotshot Senator or Representative, instead of sitting in your Beltway comfort zone you should set aside your safe seat and get a civilian appointment to Iraq or Afghanistan and make a difference (and get noticed!). But that, of course, is not going to happen as we have too many careerists and not enough leaders. Things may start changing, but not anytime too soon.
We have come close lately though, on the first count, with the contested 2000 election, which almost qualified- George Bush didn't get the majority of the raw vote, and then one elector from DC bailed out on Gore.
But we have not had a truly "up for grabs" convention in either party since 1976 and the Reagan/Ford contest.
This time around I expect the Democrats will quickly decide on either Hillary or Barack and their convention will be a snoozer.
For a Republican convention to be wide open, there needs to be a bunch of candidates hanging around and picking up delegates, but not taking charge. With Rudy Giuliani and his big swoon of late, I don't see that happening. He doesn't have any chance to win a primary soon, or even do well until too late in the process. That said, we will see a quick winnowing out. If Romney holds off Huckabee in Iowa, he cruises into New Hampshire and Michigan, then South Carolina, and the race is between him and whoever his nearest rival is there. If Romney is bumped off in Iowa and then McCain wins New Hampshire, he's out and again, it's the top two guys in South Carolina. (Thompson might at least come in second in South Carolina in some scenarios).
No matter how it plays out, I think it comes down as it did 8 years ago to South Carolina, and then Super Tuesday voters will be looking at just the two top vote getters.
Some pundits have said it would be constructive to have a wide open convention- it would be a sort of coming out party for the new blood of activists in the GOP. I see just the opposite. There doesn't seem to be a new generation of Republicans emerging yet. Much of that has to do with the Bush family and how it hasn't opened up positions to young Republican leaders. The VP position has been wasted on the goofy Dan Quayle and the tough minded Dick Cheney,an insider with no further ambitions. The most well known cabinet appointments, Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice, were RINO bureaucrats never interested in running for office. And there are simply too many Alberto Gonzales/Harriet Miers people running around the Bush White House.
Congressional Republicans have not been much better. If you are a hotshot Senator or Representative, instead of sitting in your Beltway comfort zone you should set aside your safe seat and get a civilian appointment to Iraq or Afghanistan and make a difference (and get noticed!). But that, of course, is not going to happen as we have too many careerists and not enough leaders. Things may start changing, but not anytime too soon.
Labels: Democratism, Politics, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by frank friday at 6:49 PM
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