Robert Novak: A Zogby Poll Showing McCain Ahead By Five Points Should Not Be Taken To Indicate He Is The Front-runner.
Below is the rest of the piece:
To: Our Readers
PUBLISHER'S NOTE: For the next two weeks as we cover the conventions-the Democrats in Denver and the Republicans in St. Paul-we will have a different publishing schedule, sending you ENPR twice a week: on Mondays and Fridays. On Monday, August 25, you'll get our preview of the Democratic convention, including an analysis of Obama's running mate and a new Electoral College breakdown. On Friday, Aug. 29, we'll send you a recap of the Dem. Convention. From St. Paul, it will be the same thing: a GOP preview on Monday, September 1, and a recap on Friday, 9/5. After that, we'll return to normal.
________________________________________
Outlook
1. The Democratic National Convention and buzz over Sen. Barack Obama's running mate comes at the perfect time to halt Sen. John McCain's momentum.
2. The broad pessimism about GOP chances has, in recent weeks, found justifiable solace in Obama's inability to pull away. Recent Obama missteps on discussing his record (see below) together with his sub-par performance in the "Civic Forum" over the weekend (see below) have compounded Democrats' worry.
3. A Zogby poll showing McCain ahead by five points should not be taken to indicate he is the front-runner, but it certainly helps puncture the notion that Obama is way ahead.
3. Obama and McCain enter the conventions in a legitimate dead-heat, with most national polls showing a statistical tie, and the Electoral College count coming down to a few razor-close states such as New Mexico and Nevada.
4. McCain is walking on thin ice by flirting with a pro-choice running mate. Even in this economy-dominated election with Iraq as Obama's top theme, abortion will matter.
5. Falling oil prices, leveling gas prices, and war in the Caucasus have shifted some voter concern from the economy to foreign policy. This is a boon for McCain. There is no reason to believe, however, that the economy is actually improving, which means economic worries could once again dominate.
Editor's comment: I am NOT sure why there are two number 3s, but I pretty much agree with Novak's "outlook".
To: Our Readers
PUBLISHER'S NOTE: For the next two weeks as we cover the conventions-the Democrats in Denver and the Republicans in St. Paul-we will have a different publishing schedule, sending you ENPR twice a week: on Mondays and Fridays. On Monday, August 25, you'll get our preview of the Democratic convention, including an analysis of Obama's running mate and a new Electoral College breakdown. On Friday, Aug. 29, we'll send you a recap of the Dem. Convention. From St. Paul, it will be the same thing: a GOP preview on Monday, September 1, and a recap on Friday, 9/5. After that, we'll return to normal.
________________________________________
Outlook
1. The Democratic National Convention and buzz over Sen. Barack Obama's running mate comes at the perfect time to halt Sen. John McCain's momentum.
2. The broad pessimism about GOP chances has, in recent weeks, found justifiable solace in Obama's inability to pull away. Recent Obama missteps on discussing his record (see below) together with his sub-par performance in the "Civic Forum" over the weekend (see below) have compounded Democrats' worry.
3. A Zogby poll showing McCain ahead by five points should not be taken to indicate he is the front-runner, but it certainly helps puncture the notion that Obama is way ahead.
3. Obama and McCain enter the conventions in a legitimate dead-heat, with most national polls showing a statistical tie, and the Electoral College count coming down to a few razor-close states such as New Mexico and Nevada.
4. McCain is walking on thin ice by flirting with a pro-choice running mate. Even in this economy-dominated election with Iraq as Obama's top theme, abortion will matter.
5. Falling oil prices, leveling gas prices, and war in the Caucasus have shifted some voter concern from the economy to foreign policy. This is a boon for McCain. There is no reason to believe, however, that the economy is actually improving, which means economic worries could once again dominate.
Editor's comment: I am NOT sure why there are two number 3s, but I pretty much agree with Novak's "outlook".
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