Robert Novak: Election Outlook And Overview.
Outlook: The picture is as grim for Sen. John McCain and Republicans as it is for the U.S. financial sector. If the election were today, Sen. Barack Obama would win in a blowout, with huge coattails at the Senate and House level.
1. Fairly or not, the GOP and McCain are bearing the blame for the economy, which right now is more terrifying than horrible for most people. That is, fear about the future is far deeper and more widespread than actual economic suffering.
2. McCain is not the only Republican falling in the polls. On the Senate side, the competitive races have all taken a turn towards the Democrats, and previously favored Republicans have fallen behind in recent polls. Once safe GOP senators now look endangered. Already 2008 was looking bad, but, after the last few weeks, this will be another 2006 unless Republicans somehow turn things around.
3. It's not simply anti-incumbent sentiment dragging down Republicans, either. Vulnerable freshmen House Democrats have seen their poll numbers improve along with Obama's. Democratic House gains, which we predicted last week to be a mere 6 seats, could reach 20 seats if things keep going the way they are now.
Presidential
Overview: Obama, who has been the slight favorite since clinching the nomination, is now the odds-on favorite in an election about to take a turn for the ugly.
1. Republicans may have made a devastating mistake in nominating McCain, whose lack of clarity, conviction, and understanding on the economy has handed the Democrats a win on this issue, where a more economically savvy Republican could have won the day.
2. Obama is poised to win with a clear mandate for his broad message of regulating the economy. McCain has not forced Obama to give specifics — either on which regulations were "shredded" by Republicans and caused this downturn, or on what sort of new regulations Obama wants to create.
3. All is not lost for the GOP, though. The election is four weeks away, and anything can happen in that time. Just what could happen to save McCain and stem the GOP losses, though, is hard to imagine right now.
4. McCain's campaign was foolishly honest — and correct — in admitting that they need to change the subject away from the economy. Today, that looks like a long shot.
5. McCain campaign staffers, before the current troubles, expressed frustration that their efforts to focus on issues like Social Security, spending, judges, and national security got nowhere with a media entranced with Obama's charisma and personality. They concluded that they need to pierce the myth of the Obamessiah in order to have a chance. That conclusion is even more true today.
6. The efforts by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to focus on Obama's alliance with unrepentant radical terrorist Bill Ayers could presage the McCain campaign's late tack.
7. Judging by current polls, Obama would win today in an Electoral College blowout, beating McCain by about 100 electoral votes. As always, though, anywhere both candidates are below 50%, McCain has a very strong shot, even if Obama is ahead.
8. McCain is lucky the election is not today. A comeback should not be ruled out.
1. Fairly or not, the GOP and McCain are bearing the blame for the economy, which right now is more terrifying than horrible for most people. That is, fear about the future is far deeper and more widespread than actual economic suffering.
2. McCain is not the only Republican falling in the polls. On the Senate side, the competitive races have all taken a turn towards the Democrats, and previously favored Republicans have fallen behind in recent polls. Once safe GOP senators now look endangered. Already 2008 was looking bad, but, after the last few weeks, this will be another 2006 unless Republicans somehow turn things around.
3. It's not simply anti-incumbent sentiment dragging down Republicans, either. Vulnerable freshmen House Democrats have seen their poll numbers improve along with Obama's. Democratic House gains, which we predicted last week to be a mere 6 seats, could reach 20 seats if things keep going the way they are now.
Presidential
Overview: Obama, who has been the slight favorite since clinching the nomination, is now the odds-on favorite in an election about to take a turn for the ugly.
1. Republicans may have made a devastating mistake in nominating McCain, whose lack of clarity, conviction, and understanding on the economy has handed the Democrats a win on this issue, where a more economically savvy Republican could have won the day.
2. Obama is poised to win with a clear mandate for his broad message of regulating the economy. McCain has not forced Obama to give specifics — either on which regulations were "shredded" by Republicans and caused this downturn, or on what sort of new regulations Obama wants to create.
3. All is not lost for the GOP, though. The election is four weeks away, and anything can happen in that time. Just what could happen to save McCain and stem the GOP losses, though, is hard to imagine right now.
4. McCain's campaign was foolishly honest — and correct — in admitting that they need to change the subject away from the economy. Today, that looks like a long shot.
5. McCain campaign staffers, before the current troubles, expressed frustration that their efforts to focus on issues like Social Security, spending, judges, and national security got nowhere with a media entranced with Obama's charisma and personality. They concluded that they need to pierce the myth of the Obamessiah in order to have a chance. That conclusion is even more true today.
6. The efforts by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to focus on Obama's alliance with unrepentant radical terrorist Bill Ayers could presage the McCain campaign's late tack.
7. Judging by current polls, Obama would win today in an Electoral College blowout, beating McCain by about 100 electoral votes. As always, though, anywhere both candidates are below 50%, McCain has a very strong shot, even if Obama is ahead.
8. McCain is lucky the election is not today. A comeback should not be ruled out.
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