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Friday, February 20, 2009

"Republicans Are Faced With A Dilemma."

Two Governors and the GOP Future
Republicans are faced with a dilemma.

By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL

South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford is mooted as a GOP presidential contender. During the stimulus debate he told President Barack Obama, to his face, that the Palmetto State wanted no part of a spending blowout that would be harmful to the economy, to taxpayers, and to the dollar. He even traveled to Capitol Hill to stiffen Senate Republicans against the plan.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is mooted as a GOP presidential contender. During the stimulus debate, he made clear the Sunshine State couldn't wait to get its hands on the stimulus booty and joined Democratic governors to push the bill. He even campaigned with Mr. Obama in support of the $787 billion extravaganza.

As contrasts go, it doesn't get better than this. The Republican Party is locked in a debate over how it ever fell so low and what it needs to become in the future. Mr. Sanford and Mr. Crist vividly capture the divide. They also capture how the economic downturn is already forcing Republicans to choose a side.

The 48-year-old South Carolina governor is of the party wing that believes it failed in its core promise of fiscal responsibility, and in tackling the bread-and-butter issues (education, health care) that worry voters today. He's made his name partly by confronting his own party, which runs the legislature.

Nearly every year since he was elected in 2002, Mr. Sanford has proposed to cap spending at state population growth plus inflation. His state senate has ignored him. He's used his line-item veto more than 500 times, usually on pork projects. The legislature routinely overrides. Far from diminishing his standing, these lost battles have made him popular in the state.

His policies have made South Carolina more competitive. In 2005, the state passed its first-ever cut in marginal tax rates for businesses, and in 2007 broader tax relief. He's shepherded tort reform, and crafted incentives to encourage property insurers to remain in the state after a spate of hurricanes. South Carolina still has problems (in particular, education), though since 2003 it has had the 16th fastest job growth in the nation. Its unemployment rate -- the third highest in the country -- has been exacerbated by record growth in the state's labor force.

South Carolina is hurting, but Mr. Sanford argues a stimulus primarily designed to grow government will only cause sustained economic pain. He blames much of his state's budget deficit on the fact that his legislature grew spending 40% from 2004 to 2008, and he rejects a bailout that would facilitate those excesses. That thinking outraged the state's Democratic Congressman Jim Clyburn, who responded with a provision in the House version of the stimulus giving legislatures the right to circumvent fiscally responsible governors.

Mr. Crist comes from the GOP wing that believes it needs to reach new voters with "centrist" solutions. Praised by the media as a "new breed" of GOP governor (think Arnold Schwarzenegger), Mr. Crist has reached out to Democrats, and frets over such issues as global warming. His tenure has been defined by a certain economic populism, and big approval ratings (at least for now).

Elected in 2005, Mr. Crist inherited a growing state from predecessor Jeb Bush. Florida was the job-creation story of this decade, in part because of Bush policies that cut taxes and spending, unleashing private industry. One of Mr. Crist's first acts was nonetheless to demonize private insurers in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, which has caused many to flee and left the state as the primary home insurer. That's earned him love from Floridians who've enjoyed artificially low premiums, though at some point (say, when the next big one hits) the bill will come due.

To Mr. Crist's credit, he has not raised taxes, while the downturn (which hit Florida early) has forced some budget cuts. Then again, Mr. Crist's growing problem is that while government programs might sound good, they cost money and hurt business. The governor recently crafted a high-profile deal to lay out $1.3 billion to buy out a sugar company -- part of a popular commitment to restore the Everglades. It could cost thousands of jobs.

This governor, too, is having problems with his GOP legislature -- just a different sort. Last month he vetoed $365 million in spending cuts it had sent him, as it struggled to close a budget gap. Mr. Crist delayed his own budget request so he'd have time to factor in federal stimulus dollars, which will allow him to keep funding his favored programs and to avoid tax increases he had been considering.

Congressional Republicans appear to have registered an early vote in this divide, when all but three voted against the stimulus. California, where Mr. Schwarzenegger is feeling the consequences of spending and overregulation, has got many in the GOP wondering if Florida is embarking down a similar road.

Meanwhile, don't think the two governors haven't themselves noted the differences, and responded in form. Faced with GOP criticism for his support of the stimulus, Mr. Crist explained he was just trying to help "the most vulnerable in our society." Asked about Mr. Crist, Mr. Sanford was more direct. "I don't think that a lot of people down here would call him a fiscal conservative."

Write to kim@wsj.com

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