"A Stimulus Plan For Mexican Gangsters."
A Stimulus Plan for Mexican Gangsters
Obama's promise not to crack down on medical-marijuana use raises the stakes for traffickers.
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
Mexico City
Just when you thought the effects of U.S. drug policy couldn't get more pernicious, guess what? That's where we're headed.
Mexico's young democracy is already paying a high price for the lethal combination of prohibition and strong gringo demand for mind-altering substances. Drug violence has escalated as Mexican suppliers intent on satisfying appetites across the border have tangled with each other and law enforcement. Now the U.S. is getting ready to raise the incentives for gangsters.
Suspected members of a crime gang accused of drug trafficking, extortion and kidnapping in the outskirts of Mexico City, Feb. 12, 2009.
At a press conference last week, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder indicated that President Obama would keep a campaign promise by ending federal raids on medical marijuana dispensaries. This means that the weed will remain illegal to transport and sell -- and thus highly profitable for criminals -- but there will be fewer repercussions for those who use it in states with liberal marijuana laws. The administration says it wants to end federal infringement on the rights of states.
But the consequence of the policy change will be stealth legalization -- which will create the worst of all worlds for countries like Mexico that are asked to fight supply.
It seems unlikely that Mexico will welcome this new U.S. policy at a time when it is paying so much in blood and treasure to fight the drug war. In a meeting at his office in Mexico City three weeks ago, Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora filled me in on his three-year-old battle with the cartels. Marijuana is a big part of the problem.
The attorney general rejects the suggestion from the U.S. Joint Forces Command that Mexico is at risk of becoming a failed state. But he acknowledges that the power of organized crime, armed with weapons and drug-trade financing from across the border, continues to be a very serious challenge.
The Americas columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady says Barack Obama is making it harder for Mexican authorities to crack down on drug traffickers. (Mar. 2)
To illustrate how overblown the "failed state" charge is, Mr. Medina Mora cites Colombia, a democracy that has come back from the brink of the ruin it faced in the 1990s. Last year, he notes, it had a murder rate of 33 per 100,000 inhabitants. Mexico, which suffered an especially violent year in 2008, recorded a murder rate of 10 per 100,000 inhabitants.
Life is statistically far more dangerous in the north. This year, 60% of drug-related murders -- just over 1,000 -- have taken place in the states of Chihuahua, Baja California, Sinaloa and Durango. But the attorney general emphasized that murders are down from the last three months of 2008 in all parts of the country except in the city of Juarez.
"We certainly have a problem," Mr. Medina Mora tells me, but he sees the violence as an outgrowth of the revival of the state's authority rather than a sign of looming collapse. He argues that law enforcement has restored order in many areas where the mob previously ruled. As territory has been reclaimed, the cartels have gone to war with each other over their shrinking turf. This is why, he reports, of the 6,616 drug-related murders last year, more than 85% were gangsters killed by gangsters.
"Our objective is to regain for Mexicans the right to live in peace," Mr. Medina Mora says. Again, he cites Colombia, where "the state vis-à-vis the criminal groups now controls the geography and has stopped organized crime from challenging the democracy's authority."
The Americas in the News
Get the latest information in Spanish from The Wall Street Journal's Americas page.
The improvement in Colombia is something to celebrate. Yet the persistent violence there after decades of sacrifice is troubling. Drugs remain ubiquitous in the U.S. and Europe and demand remains inelastic. Coca growing and supply chains may have been altered, but it's safe to say that the Andean region is still active in the business. Venezuela has become a major transit route to the Caribbean and Europe via Africa.
To really change things for the better, Latin American countries need the Americans to cut funding to the bad guys. Mr. Medina Mora estimates that drug consumers north of the Rio Grande put some $10 billion into the pockets of the cartels annually. This is how they either buy, intimidate or annihilate many of those who get in their way.
More interesting is Mexico's estimates that half of all cartel revenue comes from the marijuana business. That means, by my calculation, that if you lift the prohibition on trafficking pot alone, it would cut mob income by half. It also means that if the U.S. adopts a wink-wink policy of tolerating marijuana use but keeps it officially illegal, the thugs are going to get richer.
It is considered politically risky in the U.S. to argue for lifting the ban on marijuana. But that's no excuse for Mr. Obama's policy, which will harm Mexico further. The country has already paid enough for American hypocrisy on drug use.
Write to O'Grady@wsj.com
Obama's promise not to crack down on medical-marijuana use raises the stakes for traffickers.
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
Mexico City
Just when you thought the effects of U.S. drug policy couldn't get more pernicious, guess what? That's where we're headed.
Mexico's young democracy is already paying a high price for the lethal combination of prohibition and strong gringo demand for mind-altering substances. Drug violence has escalated as Mexican suppliers intent on satisfying appetites across the border have tangled with each other and law enforcement. Now the U.S. is getting ready to raise the incentives for gangsters.
Suspected members of a crime gang accused of drug trafficking, extortion and kidnapping in the outskirts of Mexico City, Feb. 12, 2009.
At a press conference last week, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder indicated that President Obama would keep a campaign promise by ending federal raids on medical marijuana dispensaries. This means that the weed will remain illegal to transport and sell -- and thus highly profitable for criminals -- but there will be fewer repercussions for those who use it in states with liberal marijuana laws. The administration says it wants to end federal infringement on the rights of states.
But the consequence of the policy change will be stealth legalization -- which will create the worst of all worlds for countries like Mexico that are asked to fight supply.
It seems unlikely that Mexico will welcome this new U.S. policy at a time when it is paying so much in blood and treasure to fight the drug war. In a meeting at his office in Mexico City three weeks ago, Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora filled me in on his three-year-old battle with the cartels. Marijuana is a big part of the problem.
The attorney general rejects the suggestion from the U.S. Joint Forces Command that Mexico is at risk of becoming a failed state. But he acknowledges that the power of organized crime, armed with weapons and drug-trade financing from across the border, continues to be a very serious challenge.
The Americas columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady says Barack Obama is making it harder for Mexican authorities to crack down on drug traffickers. (Mar. 2)
To illustrate how overblown the "failed state" charge is, Mr. Medina Mora cites Colombia, a democracy that has come back from the brink of the ruin it faced in the 1990s. Last year, he notes, it had a murder rate of 33 per 100,000 inhabitants. Mexico, which suffered an especially violent year in 2008, recorded a murder rate of 10 per 100,000 inhabitants.
Life is statistically far more dangerous in the north. This year, 60% of drug-related murders -- just over 1,000 -- have taken place in the states of Chihuahua, Baja California, Sinaloa and Durango. But the attorney general emphasized that murders are down from the last three months of 2008 in all parts of the country except in the city of Juarez.
"We certainly have a problem," Mr. Medina Mora tells me, but he sees the violence as an outgrowth of the revival of the state's authority rather than a sign of looming collapse. He argues that law enforcement has restored order in many areas where the mob previously ruled. As territory has been reclaimed, the cartels have gone to war with each other over their shrinking turf. This is why, he reports, of the 6,616 drug-related murders last year, more than 85% were gangsters killed by gangsters.
"Our objective is to regain for Mexicans the right to live in peace," Mr. Medina Mora says. Again, he cites Colombia, where "the state vis-à-vis the criminal groups now controls the geography and has stopped organized crime from challenging the democracy's authority."
The Americas in the News
Get the latest information in Spanish from The Wall Street Journal's Americas page.
The improvement in Colombia is something to celebrate. Yet the persistent violence there after decades of sacrifice is troubling. Drugs remain ubiquitous in the U.S. and Europe and demand remains inelastic. Coca growing and supply chains may have been altered, but it's safe to say that the Andean region is still active in the business. Venezuela has become a major transit route to the Caribbean and Europe via Africa.
To really change things for the better, Latin American countries need the Americans to cut funding to the bad guys. Mr. Medina Mora estimates that drug consumers north of the Rio Grande put some $10 billion into the pockets of the cartels annually. This is how they either buy, intimidate or annihilate many of those who get in their way.
More interesting is Mexico's estimates that half of all cartel revenue comes from the marijuana business. That means, by my calculation, that if you lift the prohibition on trafficking pot alone, it would cut mob income by half. It also means that if the U.S. adopts a wink-wink policy of tolerating marijuana use but keeps it officially illegal, the thugs are going to get richer.
It is considered politically risky in the U.S. to argue for lifting the ban on marijuana. But that's no excuse for Mr. Obama's policy, which will harm Mexico further. The country has already paid enough for American hypocrisy on drug use.
Write to O'Grady@wsj.com
Labels: POTUS Barack Obama
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