Politico:FEC scorecard: 10 election insights.
FEC scorecard: 10 election insights
By JOSH KRAUSHAAR & CHARLES MAHTESIAN
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) warned that his first quarter fundraising was 'lousy.' It turns out he was right.
Now that congressional candidates have filed their first-quarter Federal Election Commission fundraising reports, a clearer picture of the 2010 election cycle is developing.
The following is POLITICO’s list of the top 10 insights gleaned from the first round of fundraising — and what they reveal about the 2010 landscape.
1. The Bunning soap opera. Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) warned that his first-quarter fundraising was “lousy.” It turns out he was right.
Despite the prospect of a tough reelection in 2010, Bunning reported raising just $263,000 — well behind the pace set by Democratic Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo.
While Bunning has some fundraising events in the works, his dismal first-quarter numbers have accelerated discussions among Kentucky GOP insiders about the end game: either a tough primary challenge or Bunning himself privately acknowledging his predicament and dictating the circumstances surrounding his retirement.
2. The senator from elsewhere. Embattled Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd, whose Senate Banking Committee chairmanship enables him to raise as much money as he needs, raised a respectable $1 million in the first quarter.
The problem is that nearly all of it came from outside the state, which doesn’t reflect well on Dodd as he attempts to reconnect with voters in the aftermath of controversies surrounding his personal finances and his role in the dust-up related to American International Group bonuses.
According to a Connecticut Post analysis, Dodd raised just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while collecting $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state.
3. Mr. Burris goes to Washington. The Illinois Senate saga just keeps getting weirder and weirder: A campaign spokesman for appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) announced Thursday that Burris raised just $845 in the first quarter.
Apparently Burris is also saddled with more than $111,000 in debts from defending himself against allegations of perjury. With virtually no money and controversy still swirling about him — not to mention the candidacy of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who raised more than $1.1 million — it hardly needs to be said that Burris will find it difficult to win a full six-year term in 2010.
4. The closer. Even for a prodigious fundraiser like House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), his first-quarter haul was something to behold. Cantor rolled up $964,000 in receipts — more than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) combined. Sure, $226,000 came in the form of a transfer from a joint fundraising committee, but even without it he still raised more money than Pelosi and Boehner together.
Cantor’s blistering clip is especially welcome news for vulnerable House Republicans. Since Cantor appears to have a solid hold on his district, he’ll be able to parcel out a good chunk of his money to endangered colleagues in 2010.
5. Congressman Cao, we hardly knew ye. Nearly everything about freshman Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-La.) is refreshing, including his inability — or refusal — to recognize the precariousness of his position. But given his status as a little-known Republican representing one of the most Democratic congressional districts in the nation, Cao simply can’t afford to be underfunded. And that’s exactly what he is after raising just $143,000.
Barring a party switch or a dramatic spike in his fundraising, it’s hard to see how Cao wins a second term in Congress.
6. Senate standouts. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has reason to celebrate, as 10 of their leading candidates raised more than $1 million in the first quarter compared with just two Republicans who reached the same level.
On the Republican side, only former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman ($1.7 million) and Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania ($1.3 million) reached the million-dollar plateau.
Not all the news was rosy for Democrats, however. The most notable Democratic Senate laggard? Rep. Paul Hodes, a frontrunner for New Hampshire’s open seat who generated much fanfare in announcing his candidacy. He raised $265,000 for the quarter.
That total isn’t much more than he raised for his House campaigns — indeed, many targeted House Democrats outraised him for the quarter. He now has $254,000 cash on hand, leaving the opportunity for a Republican challenger to reach financial parity with him.
7. House hamlets. The first-quarter fundraising numbers always offer clues to which House candidates are seriously considering a promotion to the Senate and which ones are merely bluffing.
Surprisingly, one of the more serious prospective Senate candidates is Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), who is now sitting on a $3.3 million warchest after raising $550,000 in the first quarter.
Earlier in the year, Sestak seemed disinclined to run against Specter, but the possibility that Specter could lose the Republican primary and the unsettled Democratic primary field has apparently prompted him to reconsider.
Pennsylvania Democratic Reps. Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy, also mentioned as prospective Senate candidates, posted solid fundraising numbers but fell far short of Sestak’s total.
Other members who have floated their names for the Senate pale next to Sestak’s performance. Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) raised just $130,500 in the quarter, nowhere near the level necessary to run a campaign in an expensive state like New York.
Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.), who’s made noise about challenging Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) in a primary, also doesn’t seem ready for prime time. She raised $150,000 — less than one-tenth of Gillibrand’s $2.3 million total.
Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) also fell short of demonstrating he has fire in the belly for a Senate run by raising $282,000 in the quarter. But Israel has over $1.7 million in the bank and hired a fundraising consultant — suggesting he’s still harbors statewide ambitions.
Who’s still in the hunt? Manhattan Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), who raised a surprising $425,000 in the first quarter — the best showing of any of Gillibrand's potential challengers.
8. Back in the day, all we needed were palm cards and lawn signs. Most of the House members frequently rumored as possible retirees did little to quell the speculation with their fundraising.
Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.), serving his 20th term in the House, didn’t raise a single dollar during the first three months of the year. While he’s got $412,000 in his campaign account, he’s sitting in a district that’s moving in the wrong direction and it looks like he’s got a serious challenger in Democratic state Sen. Charlie Justice.
And maybe it’s true that Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) is considering running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in 2010. But if so, his first-quarter fundraising didn’t signal it. Castle raised just $74,000 in the quarter, though he has a healthy $841,000 in his campaign account.
Rep. Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), who is facing the prospect of a tough primary challenge, did little to scare off the opposition by raising only $24,000. The good news? He’s got $482,000 in his campaign account, most of it held over from his last campaign.
On the Senate side, Oklahoma Republican Tom Coburn, who has said he’s undecided whether he’ll seek a second term, certainly didn’t take any steps suggesting he’s running again. He raised just $17,000 in the quarter and has only $57,000 in the bank.
9. The upstart. There’s always one unexpected member of Congress who raises eyebrows with their fundraising, and this election cycle, it’s Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio). The second-term congressman raised $421,000 in the first three months — his highest quarterly fundraising total since entering Congress.
Space’s figures were boosted by buzz of a possible Senate candidacy, even though he will be running for reelection in the House, according to a spokesman.
Space has reason to keep his coffers well-stocked. Despite coasting to reelection last year, he represents a rural eastern Ohio seat that voted for John McCain.
Ohio’s upcoming redistricting, which will take place after the 2010 elections, is also cause for concern. The possibility that he could get forced into a primary against a sitting Democratic incumbent in 2012 makes it imperative that he keeps a healthy amount of cash at the ready.
10. The straggler caucus. No one expected freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) would be a standout fundraiser, since he self-financed nearly all of his underdog campaign last year. His first-quarter report proved the conventional wisdom was right: He raised $143,000, the second-lowest total among the 40 Democrats on the Frontline program for vulnerable incumbents.
The only Frontline Democrat with a lower total was Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), who’s well-known for her fundraising reticence. She collected $130,000, a figure that undoubtedly brought smiles to faces over at the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is hoping Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta will jump into the race.
Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.), who told POLITICO last month he’d learned from his political near-death experience in 2008, also raised less than $200,000. By reporting just $196,000, he is begging Republicans to target his district.
Republicans have their own problem members. Freshman Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.), who raised $1.6 million to win his seat, appears to be unaware that fundraising is also permitted once you are elected to office — he raised a paltry $74,000.
Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), who was outraised by a former Microsoft executive in 2008 and only narrowly escaped defeat, once again finds himself challenged by a well-funded Microsoft executive who raised more money than him.
This time around it is Suzan Del Bene, who has $293,000 in her campaign account — aided by a $211,000 personal loan — while Reichert has just $140,000 in the bank after raising $195,000.
By JOSH KRAUSHAAR & CHARLES MAHTESIAN
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) warned that his first quarter fundraising was 'lousy.' It turns out he was right.
Now that congressional candidates have filed their first-quarter Federal Election Commission fundraising reports, a clearer picture of the 2010 election cycle is developing.
The following is POLITICO’s list of the top 10 insights gleaned from the first round of fundraising — and what they reveal about the 2010 landscape.
1. The Bunning soap opera. Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) warned that his first-quarter fundraising was “lousy.” It turns out he was right.
Despite the prospect of a tough reelection in 2010, Bunning reported raising just $263,000 — well behind the pace set by Democratic Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo.
While Bunning has some fundraising events in the works, his dismal first-quarter numbers have accelerated discussions among Kentucky GOP insiders about the end game: either a tough primary challenge or Bunning himself privately acknowledging his predicament and dictating the circumstances surrounding his retirement.
2. The senator from elsewhere. Embattled Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd, whose Senate Banking Committee chairmanship enables him to raise as much money as he needs, raised a respectable $1 million in the first quarter.
The problem is that nearly all of it came from outside the state, which doesn’t reflect well on Dodd as he attempts to reconnect with voters in the aftermath of controversies surrounding his personal finances and his role in the dust-up related to American International Group bonuses.
According to a Connecticut Post analysis, Dodd raised just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while collecting $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state.
3. Mr. Burris goes to Washington. The Illinois Senate saga just keeps getting weirder and weirder: A campaign spokesman for appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) announced Thursday that Burris raised just $845 in the first quarter.
Apparently Burris is also saddled with more than $111,000 in debts from defending himself against allegations of perjury. With virtually no money and controversy still swirling about him — not to mention the candidacy of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who raised more than $1.1 million — it hardly needs to be said that Burris will find it difficult to win a full six-year term in 2010.
4. The closer. Even for a prodigious fundraiser like House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), his first-quarter haul was something to behold. Cantor rolled up $964,000 in receipts — more than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) combined. Sure, $226,000 came in the form of a transfer from a joint fundraising committee, but even without it he still raised more money than Pelosi and Boehner together.
Cantor’s blistering clip is especially welcome news for vulnerable House Republicans. Since Cantor appears to have a solid hold on his district, he’ll be able to parcel out a good chunk of his money to endangered colleagues in 2010.
5. Congressman Cao, we hardly knew ye. Nearly everything about freshman Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-La.) is refreshing, including his inability — or refusal — to recognize the precariousness of his position. But given his status as a little-known Republican representing one of the most Democratic congressional districts in the nation, Cao simply can’t afford to be underfunded. And that’s exactly what he is after raising just $143,000.
Barring a party switch or a dramatic spike in his fundraising, it’s hard to see how Cao wins a second term in Congress.
6. Senate standouts. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has reason to celebrate, as 10 of their leading candidates raised more than $1 million in the first quarter compared with just two Republicans who reached the same level.
On the Republican side, only former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman ($1.7 million) and Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania ($1.3 million) reached the million-dollar plateau.
Not all the news was rosy for Democrats, however. The most notable Democratic Senate laggard? Rep. Paul Hodes, a frontrunner for New Hampshire’s open seat who generated much fanfare in announcing his candidacy. He raised $265,000 for the quarter.
That total isn’t much more than he raised for his House campaigns — indeed, many targeted House Democrats outraised him for the quarter. He now has $254,000 cash on hand, leaving the opportunity for a Republican challenger to reach financial parity with him.
7. House hamlets. The first-quarter fundraising numbers always offer clues to which House candidates are seriously considering a promotion to the Senate and which ones are merely bluffing.
Surprisingly, one of the more serious prospective Senate candidates is Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), who is now sitting on a $3.3 million warchest after raising $550,000 in the first quarter.
Earlier in the year, Sestak seemed disinclined to run against Specter, but the possibility that Specter could lose the Republican primary and the unsettled Democratic primary field has apparently prompted him to reconsider.
Pennsylvania Democratic Reps. Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy, also mentioned as prospective Senate candidates, posted solid fundraising numbers but fell far short of Sestak’s total.
Other members who have floated their names for the Senate pale next to Sestak’s performance. Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) raised just $130,500 in the quarter, nowhere near the level necessary to run a campaign in an expensive state like New York.
Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.), who’s made noise about challenging Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) in a primary, also doesn’t seem ready for prime time. She raised $150,000 — less than one-tenth of Gillibrand’s $2.3 million total.
Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) also fell short of demonstrating he has fire in the belly for a Senate run by raising $282,000 in the quarter. But Israel has over $1.7 million in the bank and hired a fundraising consultant — suggesting he’s still harbors statewide ambitions.
Who’s still in the hunt? Manhattan Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), who raised a surprising $425,000 in the first quarter — the best showing of any of Gillibrand's potential challengers.
8. Back in the day, all we needed were palm cards and lawn signs. Most of the House members frequently rumored as possible retirees did little to quell the speculation with their fundraising.
Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.), serving his 20th term in the House, didn’t raise a single dollar during the first three months of the year. While he’s got $412,000 in his campaign account, he’s sitting in a district that’s moving in the wrong direction and it looks like he’s got a serious challenger in Democratic state Sen. Charlie Justice.
And maybe it’s true that Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) is considering running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in 2010. But if so, his first-quarter fundraising didn’t signal it. Castle raised just $74,000 in the quarter, though he has a healthy $841,000 in his campaign account.
Rep. Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), who is facing the prospect of a tough primary challenge, did little to scare off the opposition by raising only $24,000. The good news? He’s got $482,000 in his campaign account, most of it held over from his last campaign.
On the Senate side, Oklahoma Republican Tom Coburn, who has said he’s undecided whether he’ll seek a second term, certainly didn’t take any steps suggesting he’s running again. He raised just $17,000 in the quarter and has only $57,000 in the bank.
9. The upstart. There’s always one unexpected member of Congress who raises eyebrows with their fundraising, and this election cycle, it’s Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio). The second-term congressman raised $421,000 in the first three months — his highest quarterly fundraising total since entering Congress.
Space’s figures were boosted by buzz of a possible Senate candidacy, even though he will be running for reelection in the House, according to a spokesman.
Space has reason to keep his coffers well-stocked. Despite coasting to reelection last year, he represents a rural eastern Ohio seat that voted for John McCain.
Ohio’s upcoming redistricting, which will take place after the 2010 elections, is also cause for concern. The possibility that he could get forced into a primary against a sitting Democratic incumbent in 2012 makes it imperative that he keeps a healthy amount of cash at the ready.
10. The straggler caucus. No one expected freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) would be a standout fundraiser, since he self-financed nearly all of his underdog campaign last year. His first-quarter report proved the conventional wisdom was right: He raised $143,000, the second-lowest total among the 40 Democrats on the Frontline program for vulnerable incumbents.
The only Frontline Democrat with a lower total was Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), who’s well-known for her fundraising reticence. She collected $130,000, a figure that undoubtedly brought smiles to faces over at the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is hoping Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta will jump into the race.
Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.), who told POLITICO last month he’d learned from his political near-death experience in 2008, also raised less than $200,000. By reporting just $196,000, he is begging Republicans to target his district.
Republicans have their own problem members. Freshman Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.), who raised $1.6 million to win his seat, appears to be unaware that fundraising is also permitted once you are elected to office — he raised a paltry $74,000.
Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), who was outraised by a former Microsoft executive in 2008 and only narrowly escaped defeat, once again finds himself challenged by a well-funded Microsoft executive who raised more money than him.
This time around it is Suzan Del Bene, who has $293,000 in her campaign account — aided by a $211,000 personal loan — while Reichert has just $140,000 in the bank after raising $195,000.
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