John David Dyche: Believe It Or Not, Beshear Looks Like A Shoo-in.
Believe it or not, Beshear looks like a shoo-in
By John David Dyche
Gov. Steve Beshear is not merely the favorite in the 2011 gubernatorial race. He may be a shoo-in. Republicans, who won the office a mere six years ago, could have trouble fielding a credible candidate. This is an incredible state of affairs considering the circumstances.
Beshear has failed miserably at his only significant campaign promise — to bring expanded gambling to Kentucky. He has made drastic budget cuts that mainstream media would have assailed as heartless and mean-spirited if done by a Republican.
His hand-picked lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, apparently hates him. His hand-picked choice to succeed Mongiardo, Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, is fleeing from a Louisville legacy of corruption (Metro Housing), failure (library tax), incompetence (storm debris) and arrogance of power (Cordish and the Downtown Development Corp.).
Beshear's throwback administration has settled into the sort of petty Democratic patronage, partisanship and good old boy politics that produced this state's pervasive mediocrity, over which he seems content to passively preside. He has articulated no animating reason for seeking re-election, nor any vision — much less an inspiring one — for Kentucky's future.
Bad as Beshear's situation may be, that of Kentucky's Republicans is worse. The commonwealth's GOP is crucifying itself on a cross of gambling.
State Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville, has enjoyed considerable political success by keeping his caucus unified. But his hard-line posture and strong-arm tactics on gambling are counterproductive.
The gambling issue exposes a fundamental fault line between libertarians and social conservatives that bedevils the Republican coalition from time to time. By denying gambling bills a fair hearing, Williams has put several GOP legislators in difficult political positions and opened the door for Beshear — in a rare display of political dexterity — to pick off others by appointing them to plum, pension-enhancing posts.
Republicans will have a hard time getting back to topics on which they can make political hay until they put gambling behind them — preferably by letting the public vote on a constitutional amendment. Williams and his socially conservative allies could very well win that fight with superior fiscal and moral arguments, but the most important thing is to liberate pro-gambling Republicans and move the political discussion back to topics around which the whole party can rally.
Until then, GOP insiders harbor little hope of beating Beshear, who ought to be very vulnerable but is not. Few believe that either of U.S. Reps. Ed Whitfield or Geoff Davis will make the race. Former National Republican Chairman Mike Duncan would be a good governor, but will face flak for his service on erstwhile Gov. Ernie Fletcher's ill-starred transition if he tries for it.
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Richie Farmer is popular, but nowhere near ready for political prime time. Williams has high, though not necessarily insurmountable, negatives, but is hemorrhaging goodwill with urban Republicans and independents upset over his intransigence on gambling.
The party of Lincoln may muster nothing better than to trot out Secretary of State Trey Grayson if he loses his U.S. Senate bid next year. But needing someone to lose statewide hardly constitutes a rational gubernatorial plan.
Meanwhile, Grayson's primary race with Rand Paul for the senatorial nomination presents a microcosm of the divisions driving the national GOP's identity crisis.
Grayson personifies the kind of policy-driven pragmatism that intellectual commentators like David Brooks and David Frum deem essential to electoral success amid dramatically changing demographics. Paul is a poster child for the populist fury and ideological purity peddled by clever but intemperate talkers like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, respectively.
So Kentucky has become a battleground in the debate between those believing conservatives must evolve to survive and those convinced that fidelity to a few fundamentals principles will produce a renaissance of Reaganesque popularity for the party.
There is some truth and value in both perspectives. Reagan's genius was in blending them and putting a pleasant persona on the diverse varieties of the Republican experience.
John David Dyche is a Louisville attorney who writes a political column from time to time in Forum. He is the author of “Republican Leader: A Political Biography of Senator Mitch McConnell.” His views are his own, not those of the law firm in which he practices. Read him on-line at www.courier-journal.com; e-mail: jddyche@yahoo.com.
Editor's comment: I must confess that JDD has this piece "on the money", particularly with the portions about the GOP, which suggests that the party may be "pissing in the wind" on the issue of expanded gambling by blocking a DESIRED and NEEDED popular vote by the people.
By John David Dyche
Gov. Steve Beshear is not merely the favorite in the 2011 gubernatorial race. He may be a shoo-in. Republicans, who won the office a mere six years ago, could have trouble fielding a credible candidate. This is an incredible state of affairs considering the circumstances.
Beshear has failed miserably at his only significant campaign promise — to bring expanded gambling to Kentucky. He has made drastic budget cuts that mainstream media would have assailed as heartless and mean-spirited if done by a Republican.
His hand-picked lieutenant governor, Dan Mongiardo, apparently hates him. His hand-picked choice to succeed Mongiardo, Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, is fleeing from a Louisville legacy of corruption (Metro Housing), failure (library tax), incompetence (storm debris) and arrogance of power (Cordish and the Downtown Development Corp.).
Beshear's throwback administration has settled into the sort of petty Democratic patronage, partisanship and good old boy politics that produced this state's pervasive mediocrity, over which he seems content to passively preside. He has articulated no animating reason for seeking re-election, nor any vision — much less an inspiring one — for Kentucky's future.
Bad as Beshear's situation may be, that of Kentucky's Republicans is worse. The commonwealth's GOP is crucifying itself on a cross of gambling.
State Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville, has enjoyed considerable political success by keeping his caucus unified. But his hard-line posture and strong-arm tactics on gambling are counterproductive.
The gambling issue exposes a fundamental fault line between libertarians and social conservatives that bedevils the Republican coalition from time to time. By denying gambling bills a fair hearing, Williams has put several GOP legislators in difficult political positions and opened the door for Beshear — in a rare display of political dexterity — to pick off others by appointing them to plum, pension-enhancing posts.
Republicans will have a hard time getting back to topics on which they can make political hay until they put gambling behind them — preferably by letting the public vote on a constitutional amendment. Williams and his socially conservative allies could very well win that fight with superior fiscal and moral arguments, but the most important thing is to liberate pro-gambling Republicans and move the political discussion back to topics around which the whole party can rally.
Until then, GOP insiders harbor little hope of beating Beshear, who ought to be very vulnerable but is not. Few believe that either of U.S. Reps. Ed Whitfield or Geoff Davis will make the race. Former National Republican Chairman Mike Duncan would be a good governor, but will face flak for his service on erstwhile Gov. Ernie Fletcher's ill-starred transition if he tries for it.
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Richie Farmer is popular, but nowhere near ready for political prime time. Williams has high, though not necessarily insurmountable, negatives, but is hemorrhaging goodwill with urban Republicans and independents upset over his intransigence on gambling.
The party of Lincoln may muster nothing better than to trot out Secretary of State Trey Grayson if he loses his U.S. Senate bid next year. But needing someone to lose statewide hardly constitutes a rational gubernatorial plan.
Meanwhile, Grayson's primary race with Rand Paul for the senatorial nomination presents a microcosm of the divisions driving the national GOP's identity crisis.
Grayson personifies the kind of policy-driven pragmatism that intellectual commentators like David Brooks and David Frum deem essential to electoral success amid dramatically changing demographics. Paul is a poster child for the populist fury and ideological purity peddled by clever but intemperate talkers like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, respectively.
So Kentucky has become a battleground in the debate between those believing conservatives must evolve to survive and those convinced that fidelity to a few fundamentals principles will produce a renaissance of Reaganesque popularity for the party.
There is some truth and value in both perspectives. Reagan's genius was in blending them and putting a pleasant persona on the diverse varieties of the Republican experience.
John David Dyche is a Louisville attorney who writes a political column from time to time in Forum. He is the author of “Republican Leader: A Political Biography of Senator Mitch McConnell.” His views are his own, not those of the law firm in which he practices. Read him on-line at www.courier-journal.com; e-mail: jddyche@yahoo.com.
Editor's comment: I must confess that JDD has this piece "on the money", particularly with the portions about the GOP, which suggests that the party may be "pissing in the wind" on the issue of expanded gambling by blocking a DESIRED and NEEDED popular vote by the people.
Labels: Democratism, Kentucky politics, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 10:10 AM
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