Senator Mitch McConnell, Republicans And Scott Brown's 41st Senate Vote.

With 41st vote, McConnell has new power in the Senate
By James R. Carroll

WASHINGTON — Thanks to Scott Brown, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell once again has what he calls “the power to be relevant” in the U.S. Senate.

Brown, a Republican, won a surprise victory in Tuesday’s Massachusetts special election to replace the late Edward Kennedy — handing McConnell and his fellow Senate Republicans a 41st vote in their minority caucus.

And that means McConnell, R-Ky., now has the procedural muscle he needs to reshape or block the Democratic Senate’s — and President Barack Obama’s — agenda.

“Forty-one is the magic number in the Senate that gives you power to be relevant,” McConnell said in an interview.”

The rules in the 100-member Senate require 60 votes to cut off debate on a measure. That means if Republicans stick together they can filibuster and prevent Democratic initiatives from coming to a vote.

Senate Republicans obviously are elated at their good fortune in a heavily Democratic state. When Brown walked into a party luncheon Thursday, he was greeted with a standing ovation.

But the other reality for McConnell and his GOP colleagues is that, Brown notwithstanding, they remain undermanned for any legislative offensive.

“He can’t get anything passed, but he can stop things from happening,” said Larry Sabato, professor of politics and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “That actually fits Republicans. I don’t know that they’re anxious to get legislation passed.”

The risk is that “the party of ‘no’ can have that obstructionist veneer,” Sabato said.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., acknowledged in a statement that Brown’s election “changes the political math in the Senate, but it doesn’t change our focus in the Senate.”

The Democrats, he said, will push for a stronger economy, more jobs and health care for all Americans.

“The real change should occur with the Republican caucus — now they have no excuse to continue their strategy of delay, deny and derail,” Reid said. “Now, more than ever, they have to come to the table with ideas for solving our common problems, or the American people will hold them accountable.”

McConnell countered that the majority, regardless of party, always accuses the minority of obstructionism. And the argument didn’t work in Massachusetts or other recent gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, where Republicans also were victorious.

Only weeks ago, it appeared McConnell and his band of GOP senators would be stuck at 40 seats at least until the midterm elections in November.

Not only could they not impede any united Democratic efforts to pass legislation, but they complained that they were not included in negotiations on most bills — and certainly not on health-care reform. The major Democratic initiative has been staunchly opposed by McConnell and his Republican colleagues in Congress.

Brown’s election changed the dynamics of the health-care debate instantly. House and Senate negotiations over a final compromise bill — talks involving only Democrats — were suspended and the future of health care reform is now uncertain.

“Scott Brown is (McConnell’s) new best friend,” said Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

Obama and the Democrats acknowledge that the political ground has shifted and are looking for a new path to passing not only health-care legislation but also their other top priorities, including a climate-change bill.

“I've got to admit, we had a little bit of a buzzsaw this week,” Obama said in an appearance Friday in Elyria, Ohio.

But the president insisted he still was going to battle for health-care reform and job-creation programs.

“I didn't take this on to score political points,” he said of his health-care reform effort. “I know there are some folks who think, ‘If Obama loses, we win.’ But you know what? I think that I win when you win.”

McConnell expects that Obama’s State of the Union address on Wednesday will signal how the White House and the Democrats are recalibrating. But the key, he said, is that his 41 votes can be “used to have a seat at the table and negotiate for your position.”

If the Senate GOP had had 41 votes at the start of health-care deliberations, “I think we would have been able to be true negotiating partners.”

Input is what the Republicans say they have wanted all along.

“Perhaps now that we have 41 votes … the Democrats and the president will seriously sit down with us, rather than dictate to us and expect to try to pick off one or two (Republicans),” Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., told reporters Thursday as he met with Brown. “Let’s start all over, let’s sit down and have bipartisan negotiations and work together.”

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee that helped engineer Brown’s come-from-behind win, said the message from Massachusetts voters was “they are simply fed up and tired of being shut out of the process.”

Now, Cornyn said, “they got a seat at the table.”

The reality of the new Senate math is that McConnell “might get invited to a few more meetings,” Sabato said. “He may get reacquainted with the West Wing” of the White House.

McConnell said he has not been invited to the White House since Tuesday’s election, “but I wouldn’t read anything into that.”

Duffy said that while McConnell reclaims his status as the last line of defense against Democratic measures Republicans oppose, the Senate GOP leader has to be strategic about using his 41 votes and the filibuster.

Overusing what is, in effect, McConnell’s veto power would play into the hands of the Democrats, who have portrayed the GOP as unwilling to help solve problems.

“It was a pretty potent message (for Democrats) in 2007 and 2008,” Duffy said.

McConnell’s advantage at the moment is mostly psychological, said Norman Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.

Once the Democrats get over their panic and disarray after Massachusetts, the next six months could change the political atmosphere, Ornstein said.

“The more the word gets out there that the Republicans are omnipotent, the better it is for the Democrats,” he said.

McConnell also must deal with the fact that he has just acquired another New England Republican, who tend to be somewhat independent. Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, both Republicans, have been known for voting with Democrats on some issues.

“Scott Brown in part is going to want to show on a whole host of issues other than health care that he wants to be cooperative,” Ornstein said. “If Obama plays it right, he can have somebody willing to provide votes from time to time.”

McConnell said problems with party unity can be applied to the Democrats as well.

“They can’t count on everybody with 60 (votes),” he said. “Nobody is in lock step about everything all the time.”

In any case, McConnell wants Obama and the Democrats to know that he is serious about trying to negotiate and come to agreements on legislation, even though it is an election year.

For precedent, McConnell cited the welfare reform agreement struck by then-President Bill Clinton and the Republican majority in the Congress in 1996 — a presidential election year.

McConnell reiterated what he said a year ago as the Obama presidency began: “If the president wants to go to the middle, we’ll meet him there.”

Reporter James R. Carroll can be reached at (202) 906-8141.