A New Bluegrass Poll Shows Rand Paul Leading Trey Grayson By 12 Percent (Mongiardo Leads Conway By 7%). Rand Paul's Internal Polling Shows Same Lead!
Kentucky Poll: Paul holds commanding lead; Mongiardo ahead
By Jack Brammer
A new Kentucky Poll shows novice political candidate Rand Paul with a commanding 12 point lead over Trey Grayson, the Republican Party establishment’s choice in the GOP race for U.S. Senate in Kentucky.
The state’s Democratic primary to replace U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning is closer, with Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo holding a 7 point lead over Attorney General Jack Conway, says the poll conducted on behalf of the Lexington Herald-Leader, WKYT in Lexington and WAVE in Louisville.
With less than two weeks to go before the May 18 election, Conway remains within striking distance of Mongiardo, who leads 39 percent to 32 percent — a result that is within the poll’s plus or minus 4.5 percentage points margin of error. Another 17 percent remain undecided and 12 percent favor three lesser-known candidates in the race.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a lock by any stretch but I would rather be in Mongiardo’s situation than Conway’s,” said Del Ali, president of Research 2000 in Olney, Md., who conducted the poll May 2-4. “I think it’s a close race that could end up with the winner grabbing a victory margin of only 3 to 4 percentage points.”
Among Republicans, Paul holds a 44 percent to 32 percent lead over Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Another 17 percent remain undecided and 7 percent favor three lesser-known candidates.
“It’s Paul’s race to lose,” pollster Ali said. “Grayson’s best hope is for Paul to self-destruct.”
The statewide telephone poll surveyed 500 Democratic and 500 Republicans who are likely to vote on May 18.
Democratic primary
With the Democratic primary too close to call, the candidates will likely continue flooding the state with TV ads that attack each other, said said Joe Gershtenson, director of Eastern Kentucky University’s Institute of Public Governance and Civic Engagement.
“I’d say the race is too close to call, but Mongiardo definitely has the advantage at this point,” Gershtenson said. “I think it will come down to who can get their voters out.”
The poll shows Mongiardo leading Conway among male voters — 43 percent to 29 percent — while each captured 35 percent of the female vote.
“That’s surprising,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Attorneys general generally do better with males because of their crime-fighting image.”
Gershtenson noted that many of Mongiardo’s TV ads show him in hunting garb.
“That resonates with men, and I think Mongiardo’s support of coal helps him with men,” Gershtenson said.
White voters favored Mongiardo 40 percent to 32 percent, but blacks sided with Conway, 33 percent to 29 percent.
“It’s hard to say how motivated blacks will be to get out and vote,” Ali said. “It looks like a low turnout will hurt Conway. The best bet for Conway is to motivate women and minorities to come out and vote.”
Mongiardo led in most age groups, particularly among those voters 60 and over. In that age group, which is more likely to vote in a primary election, Mongiardo had 41 percent of the vote to Conway’s 34 percent.
Both candidates attracted 35 percent of voters in the age group of 18 to 29.
Three other Democratic candidates in the race showed only slight support in the poll.
Former U.S. Customs agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price of Whitley City garnered 6 percent of the vote, Henderson physician James Buckmaster got 4 percent and Louisville businessman Maurice Sweeney received 2 percent.
Republican primary
In the Republican race, Grayson finds himself “in a position you don’t want to be,” Ali said.
A strong point for Paul is his support among people 60 and over, where he leads 53 percent to 27 percent.
“That’s fantastic news for Paul,” Sabato said. “Grayson is supposed to be the establishment candidate but here he trails badly among older voters. That’s not a very good sign.”
Although Grayson has tried to woo older voters with ads touting his support for continuing Social Security, members of the Tea Party movement who generally favor Paul mostly are over 50, said University of Louisville political science professor Laurie Rhodebeck.
Paul also led in all other age groups, but only 40 percent to Grayson’s 36 percent in voters 45 to 49.
Among men, Paul grabbled 45 percent of the vote to Grayson’s 33 percent. Paul also led Grayson among women voters, 42 percent to 31 percent. Grayson is hoping that an endorsement earlier this week by U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Louisville, will spur his campaign.
But pollster Ali said he thinks McConnell’s endorsement is offset by an earlier endorsement for Paul by Bunning, R-Southgate, who decided not to seek re-election this year.
“I don’t think McConnell’s endorsement does anything for Grayson,” Ali said.
Three other candidates in the Republican primary drew scant support in the poll.
Former Superintendent of Public Instruction John Stephenson of Ft. Mitchell, who has entered other political contests, got 3 percent of the vote. So did Gurley Martin, an 86-year-old World War II veteran of Owensboro. Jon J. Scribner of Gray in Knox County got 1 percent of the vote.
Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2010/05/05/1253317/kentucky-poll-paul-holds-commanding.html#ixzz0n698gZHr
Editor's note: View the poll results here.
Editor's comment: I received an automated telephone call this morning from Mitch McConnell asking me to vote for Trey Grayson.
I am still waiting for one from Jim Bunning on behalf of Rand Paul.
Meanwhile, I await SurveyUSA's very accurate polling, which I suspect, will show the same results.
Stay tuned.
By Jack Brammer
A new Kentucky Poll shows novice political candidate Rand Paul with a commanding 12 point lead over Trey Grayson, the Republican Party establishment’s choice in the GOP race for U.S. Senate in Kentucky.
The state’s Democratic primary to replace U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning is closer, with Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo holding a 7 point lead over Attorney General Jack Conway, says the poll conducted on behalf of the Lexington Herald-Leader, WKYT in Lexington and WAVE in Louisville.
With less than two weeks to go before the May 18 election, Conway remains within striking distance of Mongiardo, who leads 39 percent to 32 percent — a result that is within the poll’s plus or minus 4.5 percentage points margin of error. Another 17 percent remain undecided and 12 percent favor three lesser-known candidates in the race.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a lock by any stretch but I would rather be in Mongiardo’s situation than Conway’s,” said Del Ali, president of Research 2000 in Olney, Md., who conducted the poll May 2-4. “I think it’s a close race that could end up with the winner grabbing a victory margin of only 3 to 4 percentage points.”
Among Republicans, Paul holds a 44 percent to 32 percent lead over Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Another 17 percent remain undecided and 7 percent favor three lesser-known candidates.
“It’s Paul’s race to lose,” pollster Ali said. “Grayson’s best hope is for Paul to self-destruct.”
The statewide telephone poll surveyed 500 Democratic and 500 Republicans who are likely to vote on May 18.
Democratic primary
With the Democratic primary too close to call, the candidates will likely continue flooding the state with TV ads that attack each other, said said Joe Gershtenson, director of Eastern Kentucky University’s Institute of Public Governance and Civic Engagement.
“I’d say the race is too close to call, but Mongiardo definitely has the advantage at this point,” Gershtenson said. “I think it will come down to who can get their voters out.”
The poll shows Mongiardo leading Conway among male voters — 43 percent to 29 percent — while each captured 35 percent of the female vote.
“That’s surprising,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Attorneys general generally do better with males because of their crime-fighting image.”
Gershtenson noted that many of Mongiardo’s TV ads show him in hunting garb.
“That resonates with men, and I think Mongiardo’s support of coal helps him with men,” Gershtenson said.
White voters favored Mongiardo 40 percent to 32 percent, but blacks sided with Conway, 33 percent to 29 percent.
“It’s hard to say how motivated blacks will be to get out and vote,” Ali said. “It looks like a low turnout will hurt Conway. The best bet for Conway is to motivate women and minorities to come out and vote.”
Mongiardo led in most age groups, particularly among those voters 60 and over. In that age group, which is more likely to vote in a primary election, Mongiardo had 41 percent of the vote to Conway’s 34 percent.
Both candidates attracted 35 percent of voters in the age group of 18 to 29.
Three other Democratic candidates in the race showed only slight support in the poll.
Former U.S. Customs agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price of Whitley City garnered 6 percent of the vote, Henderson physician James Buckmaster got 4 percent and Louisville businessman Maurice Sweeney received 2 percent.
Republican primary
In the Republican race, Grayson finds himself “in a position you don’t want to be,” Ali said.
A strong point for Paul is his support among people 60 and over, where he leads 53 percent to 27 percent.
“That’s fantastic news for Paul,” Sabato said. “Grayson is supposed to be the establishment candidate but here he trails badly among older voters. That’s not a very good sign.”
Although Grayson has tried to woo older voters with ads touting his support for continuing Social Security, members of the Tea Party movement who generally favor Paul mostly are over 50, said University of Louisville political science professor Laurie Rhodebeck.
Paul also led in all other age groups, but only 40 percent to Grayson’s 36 percent in voters 45 to 49.
Among men, Paul grabbled 45 percent of the vote to Grayson’s 33 percent. Paul also led Grayson among women voters, 42 percent to 31 percent. Grayson is hoping that an endorsement earlier this week by U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Louisville, will spur his campaign.
But pollster Ali said he thinks McConnell’s endorsement is offset by an earlier endorsement for Paul by Bunning, R-Southgate, who decided not to seek re-election this year.
“I don’t think McConnell’s endorsement does anything for Grayson,” Ali said.
Three other candidates in the Republican primary drew scant support in the poll.
Former Superintendent of Public Instruction John Stephenson of Ft. Mitchell, who has entered other political contests, got 3 percent of the vote. So did Gurley Martin, an 86-year-old World War II veteran of Owensboro. Jon J. Scribner of Gray in Knox County got 1 percent of the vote.
Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2010/05/05/1253317/kentucky-poll-paul-holds-commanding.html#ixzz0n698gZHr
Editor's note: View the poll results here.
Editor's comment: I received an automated telephone call this morning from Mitch McConnell asking me to vote for Trey Grayson.
I am still waiting for one from Jim Bunning on behalf of Rand Paul.
Meanwhile, I await SurveyUSA's very accurate polling, which I suspect, will show the same results.
Stay tuned.
Labels: Democratism, Politics, Polling, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 6:36 PM
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