Al Cross: GOP Wave Ran Deep In Local Elections.
GOP wave ran deep in local elections
By Al Cross
From a national perspective, the shellacking that President Barack Obama said Democrats took in Tuesday's election wasn't that bad in Kentucky. Both Democratic congressmen held on to their seats, though Ben Chandler must await a Friday recanvass to confirm his 649-vote lead in the 6th District. And the open Senate seat won by Rand Paul was already held by a fellow Republican, Jim Bunning. (More later on Democratic nominee Jack Conway.)
So, Kentucky's congressional landscape is pretty much where it was in 1994-98, when the last Republican wave and Sen. Mitch McConnell's strategy and tactics helped the GOP take three of the state's six House seats and Democratic icon Wendell Ford's Senate seat. But under the federal radar Tuesday, it was a very bad day for Kentucky Democrats and a historic one for Kentucky Republicans.
The GOP's working majority in the state Senate grew to the three-fifths needed to pass budget legislation in next year's short session and approve constitutional amendments in any regular session, strengthening Senate President David Williams' hand as he runs for governor.
Conversely, in the House, the ruling Democrats lost their supermajority, as Republicans gained seven seats to make the partisan count 58 Ds and 42 Rs — probably close enough to get anti-abortion bills to the floor.
The legislative numbers reflected a national trend. Across the country, Republicans gained 680 seats, a modern record, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
But the Republican wave went deeper. In Kentucky, the biggest surprises of the night came in local elections, which had long been insulated from national and state partisan influence.
In the 1994 Republican landslide, no regular local elections were on the ballot, but the state was moving to a new schedule that put most local elections in even-numbered, non-presidential years. Every county and a few cities held partisan elections Tuesday, and Republicans surely wish they hadn't allowed so many local Democrats to run unopposed. It was a good day to be on the ballot under the log cabin, and a bad day to run with the rooster.
In races for county judge-executive, Republicans had a net gain of nine seats, giving them the top job in 52 of the state's 120 counties, probably a record. They will now preside over such traditionally Democratic counties as Bath, Gallatin, Lyon and Todd.
The results were most striking in Western Kentucky, where conservative Democrats have been turning Republican since the 1960s. The trend accelerated Tuesday. For example, in normally Democratic Hopkins County, the GOP gained courthouse seats and Republican David Jackson defeated Madisonville Mayor Will Cox, who had seemed successful and popular.
Cox, who lost by just over 1 percent of the vote, said he was hurt by Conway's poor performance at the top of the ticket — only 41 percent of the vote, three points less than statewide.
Retiring state Rep. Eddie Ballard of Madisonville, who watched his seat go Republican, told me Conway's shortfall was “bound to have had some bearing” on Cox. “If I really got a surprise in the elections, it was his race. This Rand Paul thing was really big.”
In this space last week, Chandler said of Conway, “We all know that how he does affects everybody up and down the ticket.” He said that a few days before the election, when many Democrats had concluded Conway's cause was lost because he ran a television commercial that implicitly questioned Paul's religion.
Conway continues to insist that he wasn't questioning Paul's faith, and he scoffs at the suggestion that he hurt his party. “I reject that outright,” he told me. “The national mood was really bitter toward Democrats and this ad did not drag down the ticket.”
He argued that his strong performance in his Louisville base probably helped Greg Fischer keep the mayor's office Democratic. (He should share credit with Bill Clinton's election-eve visit.) Conway said “the real story” of his race is that he was outspent 5 to 1 by outside, Republican-allied groups, which attacked him with mail, radio and TV.
Conway was vulnerable to such attacks because he hadn't established a strong identity with voters. He had an easy race for attorney general in 2007 and has a shy streak that kept him from building a broad, strong following at the grass roots. In Madisonville, “Jack did not draw any crowds to speak of and it was mostly the same people” each time, Ballard said.
Conway had an authenticity problem. In debates with Paul, he often came across as tense and manufactured, spitting out sound-bite talking points while Paul was calmer, cooler and more conversational, with a clearer, simpler message.
So, with little more than two weeks to go, Conway was clearly behind. To win, he needed a game-changer to make the election a referendum on the unusual Paul, not on the unpopular Obama, whom Republicans had wrapped around his neck.
Conway said his consultants produced a “greatest hits” ad with six to 10 of Paul's most controversial statements, but didn't run it because it made so many points they thought it wouldn't cut through the clutter of ads on TV. He said the material on Paul's anti-religious activity in college polled better than anything else, “and when we gamed it out with his likely response, we still came out ahead.”
He said the ad's script was tested with polling, but the ad itself was not shown to a small, representative “focus group” of voters — or to his part-time campaign chairperson, state Auditor Crit Luallen. He said she was not on the final conference call when the decision was made, but he described the ad to her.
“He told me he was very uncomfortable with it,” Luallen said. “My advice was to rely on his own personal instinct….. If he was uncomfortable, that should be a significant factor.”
On the conference call that followed, Conway said his consultants told him, “If you want to win this race you have to run the ad.” He summed up his decision for me this way: “When everyone around you tells you to pull the trigger, you go ahead and do it.”
But “everyone” did not include Luallen or anyone else with her level of experience in Kentucky politics, and Conway clearly needed that. He may have “an incredible intellect,” as Luallen says, but when it comes to the gut instinct that is so important in politics, he either lacks a full measure of it, full confidence in it, or both.
Conway reiterated that he has no regrets about the decision, despite the collective wisdom that it, and Paul's skillful responses, effectively ended the race. Paul's final response ad ran until Election Day, indicating that his polls showed knew the controversy was cutting his way.
Conway did say he was surprised by the criticism from “many of the more liberal types,” some of whom appeared in that last response ad. “It was a risky move for a Democrat to throw a right hook,” he said.
But there was more at risk than the outcome of one election, such as the fate of other Democratic candidates and Conway's political future. One poll showed he ended the race with a majority of voters viewing him negatively, which could attract significant opposition as he seeks re-election as attorney general next year.
Did Conway wonder, as he pondered the decision, if it would hurt him in future races? “Maybe a little bit,” he said. “It's one of those things, you're just so focused on winning the race.” And so were his consultants, who relied too heavily on polls and not enough on real people. And he relied too heavily on the consultants.
Al Cross, former Courier-Journal political writer, is director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in the School of Journalism and Telecommunications at the University of Kentucky. His e-mail address is al.cross@uky.edu. His views are his own, not those of the University of Kentucky.
By Al Cross
From a national perspective, the shellacking that President Barack Obama said Democrats took in Tuesday's election wasn't that bad in Kentucky. Both Democratic congressmen held on to their seats, though Ben Chandler must await a Friday recanvass to confirm his 649-vote lead in the 6th District. And the open Senate seat won by Rand Paul was already held by a fellow Republican, Jim Bunning. (More later on Democratic nominee Jack Conway.)
So, Kentucky's congressional landscape is pretty much where it was in 1994-98, when the last Republican wave and Sen. Mitch McConnell's strategy and tactics helped the GOP take three of the state's six House seats and Democratic icon Wendell Ford's Senate seat. But under the federal radar Tuesday, it was a very bad day for Kentucky Democrats and a historic one for Kentucky Republicans.
The GOP's working majority in the state Senate grew to the three-fifths needed to pass budget legislation in next year's short session and approve constitutional amendments in any regular session, strengthening Senate President David Williams' hand as he runs for governor.
Conversely, in the House, the ruling Democrats lost their supermajority, as Republicans gained seven seats to make the partisan count 58 Ds and 42 Rs — probably close enough to get anti-abortion bills to the floor.
The legislative numbers reflected a national trend. Across the country, Republicans gained 680 seats, a modern record, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
But the Republican wave went deeper. In Kentucky, the biggest surprises of the night came in local elections, which had long been insulated from national and state partisan influence.
In the 1994 Republican landslide, no regular local elections were on the ballot, but the state was moving to a new schedule that put most local elections in even-numbered, non-presidential years. Every county and a few cities held partisan elections Tuesday, and Republicans surely wish they hadn't allowed so many local Democrats to run unopposed. It was a good day to be on the ballot under the log cabin, and a bad day to run with the rooster.
In races for county judge-executive, Republicans had a net gain of nine seats, giving them the top job in 52 of the state's 120 counties, probably a record. They will now preside over such traditionally Democratic counties as Bath, Gallatin, Lyon and Todd.
The results were most striking in Western Kentucky, where conservative Democrats have been turning Republican since the 1960s. The trend accelerated Tuesday. For example, in normally Democratic Hopkins County, the GOP gained courthouse seats and Republican David Jackson defeated Madisonville Mayor Will Cox, who had seemed successful and popular.
Cox, who lost by just over 1 percent of the vote, said he was hurt by Conway's poor performance at the top of the ticket — only 41 percent of the vote, three points less than statewide.
Retiring state Rep. Eddie Ballard of Madisonville, who watched his seat go Republican, told me Conway's shortfall was “bound to have had some bearing” on Cox. “If I really got a surprise in the elections, it was his race. This Rand Paul thing was really big.”
In this space last week, Chandler said of Conway, “We all know that how he does affects everybody up and down the ticket.” He said that a few days before the election, when many Democrats had concluded Conway's cause was lost because he ran a television commercial that implicitly questioned Paul's religion.
Conway continues to insist that he wasn't questioning Paul's faith, and he scoffs at the suggestion that he hurt his party. “I reject that outright,” he told me. “The national mood was really bitter toward Democrats and this ad did not drag down the ticket.”
He argued that his strong performance in his Louisville base probably helped Greg Fischer keep the mayor's office Democratic. (He should share credit with Bill Clinton's election-eve visit.) Conway said “the real story” of his race is that he was outspent 5 to 1 by outside, Republican-allied groups, which attacked him with mail, radio and TV.
Conway was vulnerable to such attacks because he hadn't established a strong identity with voters. He had an easy race for attorney general in 2007 and has a shy streak that kept him from building a broad, strong following at the grass roots. In Madisonville, “Jack did not draw any crowds to speak of and it was mostly the same people” each time, Ballard said.
Conway had an authenticity problem. In debates with Paul, he often came across as tense and manufactured, spitting out sound-bite talking points while Paul was calmer, cooler and more conversational, with a clearer, simpler message.
So, with little more than two weeks to go, Conway was clearly behind. To win, he needed a game-changer to make the election a referendum on the unusual Paul, not on the unpopular Obama, whom Republicans had wrapped around his neck.
Conway said his consultants produced a “greatest hits” ad with six to 10 of Paul's most controversial statements, but didn't run it because it made so many points they thought it wouldn't cut through the clutter of ads on TV. He said the material on Paul's anti-religious activity in college polled better than anything else, “and when we gamed it out with his likely response, we still came out ahead.”
He said the ad's script was tested with polling, but the ad itself was not shown to a small, representative “focus group” of voters — or to his part-time campaign chairperson, state Auditor Crit Luallen. He said she was not on the final conference call when the decision was made, but he described the ad to her.
“He told me he was very uncomfortable with it,” Luallen said. “My advice was to rely on his own personal instinct….. If he was uncomfortable, that should be a significant factor.”
On the conference call that followed, Conway said his consultants told him, “If you want to win this race you have to run the ad.” He summed up his decision for me this way: “When everyone around you tells you to pull the trigger, you go ahead and do it.”
But “everyone” did not include Luallen or anyone else with her level of experience in Kentucky politics, and Conway clearly needed that. He may have “an incredible intellect,” as Luallen says, but when it comes to the gut instinct that is so important in politics, he either lacks a full measure of it, full confidence in it, or both.
Conway reiterated that he has no regrets about the decision, despite the collective wisdom that it, and Paul's skillful responses, effectively ended the race. Paul's final response ad ran until Election Day, indicating that his polls showed knew the controversy was cutting his way.
Conway did say he was surprised by the criticism from “many of the more liberal types,” some of whom appeared in that last response ad. “It was a risky move for a Democrat to throw a right hook,” he said.
But there was more at risk than the outcome of one election, such as the fate of other Democratic candidates and Conway's political future. One poll showed he ended the race with a majority of voters viewing him negatively, which could attract significant opposition as he seeks re-election as attorney general next year.
Did Conway wonder, as he pondered the decision, if it would hurt him in future races? “Maybe a little bit,” he said. “It's one of those things, you're just so focused on winning the race.” And so were his consultants, who relied too heavily on polls and not enough on real people. And he relied too heavily on the consultants.
Al Cross, former Courier-Journal political writer, is director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in the School of Journalism and Telecommunications at the University of Kentucky. His e-mail address is al.cross@uky.edu. His views are his own, not those of the University of Kentucky.
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