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Monday, April 25, 2011

Joe Gerth: Five Things To Know About Campaign Fundraising Filings.

Five things to know about campaign fundraising filings
Written by Joseph Gerth

The complaint you most often hear from underfunded candidates this time of year is, “Why is the media so obsessed with fundraising?”

In fact, most days last week, this newspaper ran stories about how much money Kentucky gubernatorial candidates have coerced from their supporters.

And the next thing you often hear is, “It shouldn't matter how much I raise, whether I get elected or not. People should cast their votes on my positions.”

This is where the disconnect lies.

In politics, it's not the money in the bank that matters. It's the money that is being spread among the state's television and radio stations and other media that matters.

The bottom line is this: If you can't afford to tell voters what your positions are, they aren't going to know enough about you to vote for you.

That said, let's look at five things you should know about the fundraising filings last week:

Beshear's amount raised impressive

So far in the election, Beshear has raised $4.8 million. That's the most any gubernatorial candidate has raised in a primary since Kentucky's campaign finance law went into effect following the 1991 election.

That is four times as much as the $1.2 million Senate President David Williams has reported raising since he jumped into the race in August.

Williams makes the points that he didn't start raising money until after the November election, then was severely hampered in his ability to do that once this year's legislative session began. There is validity to that.

What's less valid is the Williams campaign point that he has raised more than Beshear did by this time in 2007.

That doesn't matter. Beshear was raising money against three Democratic slates that raised significant amounts of money, while Williams' Republican opponents have barely made a ripple.

What's more, because the Republican nominee then, Gov. Ernie Fletcher, also faced serious primary opposition in the form of former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, both Beshear and Fletcher started the general election with little money.

Beshear, who has no primary opposition, now holds a 4-1 cash advantage over Williams, and that advantage is likely to grow.

Beshear, Williams totals may not matter

With only three other governor's races in the country this year, you can expect a lot of interest from national parties, which likely will send millions of dollars into the state.

On top of that, the U.S. Supreme Court has made it possible for businesses to sink unlimited money into races, meaning outside money could dwarf the amount of money the candidates can raise and spend.

Beshear has angered large portions of the coal industry and at least one key road builder who might see a chance to exact their revenge on him in the 2011 election.

We're going to assume here that Williams will be the GOP nominee because it doesn't appear that his opponents, Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw and Louisville businessman Phil Moffett, have raised enough money to overcome his lead in the polls.

And, if Williams can convince power brokers in Washington he can beat Beshear, they'll likely pony up more than enough for him to be competitive.

Whatever happens, rest assured both Williams and Beshear will have more than enough money to get their message out to voters.

Some incumbents could be in trouble

Since Kentucky began allowing statewide officers to succeed themselves beginning with those elected in 1995, only one person running for a second term has lost.

That was Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who succumbed to Beshear in 2007 largely because of a hiring scandal that dogged his administration and lost him the support of many Republicans.

But if fundraising is any indication, a couple of incumbent Democrats could be in trouble.

Attorney General Jack Conway, who was damaged in his U.S. Senate race last year, posted lackluster numbers last week, raising only $129,858 during his first quarter of raising money. That's his total for the election.

By contrast, his Republican opponent, Todd P'Pool, reported raising $79,482, pushing his total to $352,132.

The good news for Conway is that he has almost universal name recognition from the Senate race, and won't have to spend money to introduce himself to voters like P'Pool will. The bad news is that he lost the Senate race and in the process alienated a significant number of voters who thought his campaign was sophomoric and mean-spirited.

The other Democrat who looks to face a tough challenge is state Treasurer Todd Hollenbach, who was outraised by his Republican opponent.

Hollenbach has reported raising $48,009, while Republican K.C. Crosbie, a member of the Lexington-Fayette County Urban County Council, has reported raising $52,810.

Young candidates raised big money

Both parties have candidates they see as future stars, and you can tell who they are by the big money they've raised their first time out.

For the Democrats, state auditor candidate Adam Edelen and secretary of state candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes stand out.

Edelen is unopposed in the Democratic primary, but never the less reported raising a whopping $417,605 for the primary. It's the most any Democrat other than Beshear has raised.

Grimes weighted in with a more-than-respectable $303,283 in her race against former Bowling Green Mayor Elaine Walker, who was appointed by Beshear to finish Republican Trey Grayson's term.

On the Republican side, P'Pool and state Rep. Jamie Comer, who is running for agriculture commissioner, posted noteworthy numbers.

P'Pool's $352,132 is more than any Republican candidate not named David Williams. With no primary opposition, he is in a strong position to challenge Conway.

Comer has raised more than $180,000, a load of money for an agriculture commissioner office that generally isn't seen as a major job or even a stepping stone to higher office.

Candidate a day late, but not dollars short

One candidate was late in filing her campaign finance report: Republican secretary of state candidate Hilda Legg.

Legg said her campaign just didn't leave enough time to enter all the contributors into the computer, but she promised it would not happen again.

“I very much regret that we didn't make the deadline,” she said. “It's not acceptable and it's not the standard of performance that I expect.”

Legg said she ultimately reported raising $119,000, about four times as much as her primary opponent, Bill Johnson, took in.

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