Ronnie Ellis: "An Odd Primary" At Hand.
‘An odd primary’ at hand
By Ronnie Ellis CNHI News Service
Frankfort — FRANKFORT — Scott Jennings is the campaign manager for the Republican gubernatorial slate of David Williams and Richie Farmer. He’s likely never bored in that job.
Last week, as the campaign kicked off its “Lead, follow or get out of the way tour,” Jennings mused that this “is an odd primary. I’ve never seen a primary like this one.”
Part is because little in the campaign has gone as Jennings or Williams anticipated. The first thing that went awry was the way the regular and special legislative sessions ended with rare miscalculations by Williams who was outfoxed by House Speaker Greg Stumbo and Gov. Steve Beshear. Then came a haymaker: Jennings and Williams apparently learned Farmer was being sued for divorce only several days after his wife filed her petition. Farmer has since been the subject of a stream of negative press accounts about his initial refusal to take unpaid furloughs, questionable spending on travel and accommodations, and his use of state vehicles. (Oh to be a fly on the wall of the bus between campaign stops.)
Williams probably thought his decade-long political mastery of the state Senate during which he repeatedly thwarted the aims of the Democratic House, gambling proponents and, for three years, Beshear and, especially his support of Rand Paul last year, would provide his conservative bona fides to his party’s base. Instead, Williams is attacked by some associated with the Tea Party movement as a big-government, big-spending Republican. But, according to polls, neither Phil Moffett nor Bobbie Holsclaw appears to pose any real threat to Williams on May 17.
CN/2 Politics released a poll last week which seemed to confirm an earlier Bluegrass Poll by The Courier-Journal showing Williams with a large lead in the primary. But in that race and in other Republican down ticket contests the CN/2 poll showed a whole lot of undecided Republican voters. That indicates a lack of name recognition for some of those other candidates and probably shows voters haven’t begun to focus on the primary election. But it also likely portends a very low turnout.
Some are predicting turnout will be as low as 15 percent and in such elections there can be surprises, though they’re more likely to occur in lesser-watched races. In the 2003 primary, low turnout played a role in both parties’ nominations for attorney general, which turned out to have serious consequences. On the Republican side, Jack Wood upset the respected Tim Feeley, dashing Republican hopes for a general election win. On the Democratic side, Stumbo defeated Ed Hatchett, but by a narrower margin than expected. Had either race gone the other way, Ernie Fletcher conceivably could be winding up his second term. And Democrats shouldn’t forget that the other David (Lynn) Williams, a perennial sideshow candidate, actually won the 2007 Democratic primary for commissioner of agriculture. He’s running in the same race this year and should he win this time, it won’t be the previously untouchable Farmer waiting in the fall. That could put the Kentucky Democratic Party in the uncomfortable position of hoping a Republican wins in the fall.
Turnout might be affected by another factor — the heavy flooding in western Kentucky. That’s likely to affect turnout in that region and if flood waters don’t recede quickly, it may also force temporary changes to voting locations which could further depress turnout.
But this is Kentucky where, as James Mulligan wrote 100 years ago, “Politics (are) the damndest.” Why should Jennings be surprised — or ever bored?
Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/
By Ronnie Ellis CNHI News Service
Frankfort — FRANKFORT — Scott Jennings is the campaign manager for the Republican gubernatorial slate of David Williams and Richie Farmer. He’s likely never bored in that job.
Last week, as the campaign kicked off its “Lead, follow or get out of the way tour,” Jennings mused that this “is an odd primary. I’ve never seen a primary like this one.”
Part is because little in the campaign has gone as Jennings or Williams anticipated. The first thing that went awry was the way the regular and special legislative sessions ended with rare miscalculations by Williams who was outfoxed by House Speaker Greg Stumbo and Gov. Steve Beshear. Then came a haymaker: Jennings and Williams apparently learned Farmer was being sued for divorce only several days after his wife filed her petition. Farmer has since been the subject of a stream of negative press accounts about his initial refusal to take unpaid furloughs, questionable spending on travel and accommodations, and his use of state vehicles. (Oh to be a fly on the wall of the bus between campaign stops.)
Williams probably thought his decade-long political mastery of the state Senate during which he repeatedly thwarted the aims of the Democratic House, gambling proponents and, for three years, Beshear and, especially his support of Rand Paul last year, would provide his conservative bona fides to his party’s base. Instead, Williams is attacked by some associated with the Tea Party movement as a big-government, big-spending Republican. But, according to polls, neither Phil Moffett nor Bobbie Holsclaw appears to pose any real threat to Williams on May 17.
CN/2 Politics released a poll last week which seemed to confirm an earlier Bluegrass Poll by The Courier-Journal showing Williams with a large lead in the primary. But in that race and in other Republican down ticket contests the CN/2 poll showed a whole lot of undecided Republican voters. That indicates a lack of name recognition for some of those other candidates and probably shows voters haven’t begun to focus on the primary election. But it also likely portends a very low turnout.
Some are predicting turnout will be as low as 15 percent and in such elections there can be surprises, though they’re more likely to occur in lesser-watched races. In the 2003 primary, low turnout played a role in both parties’ nominations for attorney general, which turned out to have serious consequences. On the Republican side, Jack Wood upset the respected Tim Feeley, dashing Republican hopes for a general election win. On the Democratic side, Stumbo defeated Ed Hatchett, but by a narrower margin than expected. Had either race gone the other way, Ernie Fletcher conceivably could be winding up his second term. And Democrats shouldn’t forget that the other David (Lynn) Williams, a perennial sideshow candidate, actually won the 2007 Democratic primary for commissioner of agriculture. He’s running in the same race this year and should he win this time, it won’t be the previously untouchable Farmer waiting in the fall. That could put the Kentucky Democratic Party in the uncomfortable position of hoping a Republican wins in the fall.
Turnout might be affected by another factor — the heavy flooding in western Kentucky. That’s likely to affect turnout in that region and if flood waters don’t recede quickly, it may also force temporary changes to voting locations which could further depress turnout.
But this is Kentucky where, as James Mulligan wrote 100 years ago, “Politics (are) the damndest.” Why should Jennings be surprised — or ever bored?
Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/
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