Very Reliable SurveyUSA Poll Finds That On Tuesday, David Williams Will Head The GOP Gubernatorial Ticket With Richie Farmer. It's All Over, Folks!

Bluegrass Poll: David Williams still has big lead in GOP Kentucky governor's race
By Joe Gerth.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, found Williams, of Burkesville, and Farmer, the state agriculture commissioner, with a lead in every demographic group. It was conducted May 4 through Tuesday, after a series of news reports about Farmer and the way he has run his office. ...

Williams enjoys his largest lead in Eastern Kentucky — Farmer’s home turf — where he holds a 53-percentage point advantage over Moffett, his nearest competitor.

He was strongest among men, voters age 35-49, those who consider themselves moderate Republicans and those who said they are not college graduates. ...

Senate President David Williams continues to hold a commanding lead in the Republican primary for governor just days before next Tuesday’s election, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

But Louisville businessman Phil Moffett has begun to chip away at Williams’ lead, going from a 3-1 disadvantage last month to a 2-1 disadvantage now.

The third candidate in the race, Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw, has picked up no additional support since last month’s Bluegrass Poll.

The survey of 500 likely Republican voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, found Williams with 47 percent of the vote, Moffett with 21 percent and Holsclaw with 12 percent. Twenty-one percent were still undecided. ...

Republican political consultant Ted Jackson said the poll’s results simply confirm what people have suspected for a long time.

“It’s over,” he said. “It’s been over for a long time. … Those numbers continue to bear out the fact that this race was over before it started and David is going to be the nominee. I don’t see a scenario for any other result.”

Jackson said both Moffett and Holsclaw were doomed the minute it became apparent that they couldn’t raise the money they needed to wage a full-scale media campaign. Williams has raised about $1.3 million, compared to slightly more than $100,000 for Moffett and $26,000 for Holsclaw.

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington, agreed that the race is “all over but the counting.”

She said that Moffett couldn’t sell himself as the next Rand Paul, a tea party favorite who won a surprise victory in last year’s U.S. Senate race in Kentucky. And Holsclaw had neither the campaign organization nor the money needed to compete with Williams, she said.

Both were relatively unknown when they entered the race and without money to boost their name identification were bound to lose, Duffy said.

Some candidates have overcome that by building strong grassroots campaigns, but Holsclaw and Moffett didn’t do that, she said.

“If either Moffett or Holsclaw had done it, we’d see it by now,” she said.

In the Nov. 8 general election, the winner of the Republican primary will face Gov. Steve Beshear, who did not have a Democratic primary challenger.

Editor's note: to read the whole piece, follow linked caption.

Editor's comment: Even if Phil Moffett received all the votes of all of the undecideds, he'll still lose the election come Tuesday.

As for Bobbie Holsclaw, she was not even in contention, probable because she came out so late, and may have given Phil Moffett reason to call her a spoiler for him.