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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Kentucky Revenue Receipts In Upswing. Is This Real Or Political "Memorex"?

Kentucky state revenue up in July
Written by Mike Wynn

FRANKFORT, Ky. — Modest economic gains helped revenue in the state's General Fund continue to grow at a steady pace during the first month of the 2012 fiscal year, according to figures released Wednesday.

The state Budget Office issued its monthly revenue report showing that receipts in the General Fund totaled $693.2 million in July, a 6.9 percent increase over July 2010.

The results bolster last week's forecast of a $192 million General Fund surplus this fiscal year.

State Budget Director Mary Lassiter said receipts have improved for the past five quarters thanks to stronger economic activity.

Still, Gov. Steve Beshear must cut $169 million in spending to balance the enacted budget, and federal stimulus money will not be available to shore up expenses next year.

“While we are cautiously optimistic about the revenue outlook, we still have a challenge ahead to balance the budget this fiscal year,” Lassiter warned in a news release.

The current spending plan projects a 1.3 percent increase in revenue for fiscal year 2012, which ends June 30. Budget officials said the General Fund can now meet that goal with only 0.8 percent growth over the remainder of the year.

According to July's report, sales tax revenue increased 6.8 percent, receipts from individual income taxes were up 11.5 percent and corporate tax revenue surged 183.4 percent.

The lottery and the coal severance tax also yielded stronger revenues, but receipts from cigarette and property taxes were down.

“What we believe ... is businesses are returning to profitability,” Lassiter said. “The employment numbers are not coming back as we would expect them to be as the economy recovers, but businesses are paying more business taxes because they are more profitable.”

Revenues in the state Road Fund also gained ground in July. Receipts totaled $104.7 million, an increase of 2.3 percent compared to July 2010.

Lassiter said motor vehicle usage receipts, which rose 9.4 percent, played a key role in July figures. Fuel tax revenue also climbed 3.8 percent.

The Road Fund will meet budgeted projections even if receipts remain flat the rest of the year, the report said.

Last week a group of economic analysts serving on the state Consensus Forecasting Group predicted that Kentucky will collect more than $9 billion in General Fund receipts this year, exceeding the budget's original estimate of $8.87 million.

Among the largest upward revisions, corporations and limited liability entities were projected to exceed original estimates by $95.4 million and $82.2 million respectively.

Economists also predicted that revenue in the Road Fund will exceed original estimates by 83.3 million in fiscal year 2012.

“There is always uncertainty and there may be more uncertainty now than in other periods, but that was the first look of the next biennium of that group,” Lassiter said. “It is what it is for now.”

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