Al Cross: Top Of Ticket's Struggles Spell Trouble For State GOP Hopes.
Top of ticket's struggles spell trouble for state GOP hopes
Written by Al Cross
With the economy sputtering and President Obama more unpopular than ever, there should be much buzz among Kentucky Republicans about taking back the governorship that Democrat Steve Beshear took from their scandal-hobbled Ernie Fletcher four years ago.
But with eight weeks left in the race, the only buzz in the GOP about state Senate President David Williams comes from dismay and questions about his campaign. That has some Republicans, including Fletcher, helping new talent down the ballot. But Williams has thrown such a wet blanket on the party that it’s unlikely to have any success Nov. 8.
For five weeks in August and September, Williams was off television while Beshear ran positive ads and a shadowy pro-Beshear group ran spots tearing Williams down. His rating in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, Aug. 25-28, was well over 2 to 1 negative. The poll showed him trailing Beshear 55 percent to 28 percent, with independent Gatewood Galbraith getting 10 percent.
Meanwhile, Williams’ website displayed his previous ad with a plea to give $50 to “keep” the spot on the air, though it had vanished long before. Those sorts of things happen when you lose your campaign manager and don’t replace him. That also happened in August.
When Williams finally returned to TV last week, it was not in the major markets of Louisville and Lexington, but in the generally less expensive markets. It’s apparent he did not get what he had hoped from the Aug. 25 fundraiser in Louisville with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
And the ad itself, a combined attack on Beshear with an anti-Obama, pro-coal pitch from Williams, is short on facts. Most of the 100,000 jobs that it says were lost under Beshear have been recouped, and the ad repeats the red-herring line about Kentucky being the “worst managed state,” a rating by a non-authoritative website that relied more on long-term trends than short-term issues related to Beshear. Our bad management goes back to the period right after the Civil War.
Williams has issues to talk about, such as tax reform, but he trails so badly that Beshear feels free to continue his non-engagement strategy with impunity and pull out of a candidates’ forum in Louisville today.
Williams’ campaign is like a wagon with wheels in both ditches and axles dragging. Tea-party elements dislike his votes for taxes, and the GOP’s moderate, largely urban voters just don’t care for him personally and apparently won’t listen to his arguments. His personality, or the perception thereof, probably precludes persuasion, and the polls leave Republicans dispirited.
Williams hoped having Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer as his running mate would be the sugar to stanch his vinegar, but Farmer’s series of foibles have turned him from a basketball hero who was Kentucky’s most popular politician to one with a net negative rating in the poll.
With the top of the ticket in such trouble, some Republicans are turning their attention to down-ballot races: agriculture commissioner, attorney general, auditor, secretary of state and treasurer. I believe no Republican has ever won initial election to one of those offices when a Democrat won the governorship, but party labels mean less and less to voters, giving Republicans hope.
The Great GOP Hope of the moment is the attorney-general nominee, Hopkins County Attorney Todd P’Pool, with secondary attention to ag-commissioner nominee James Comer, who may have a better shot.
P’Pool is challenging Jack Conway, who hurt himself in last fall’s U.S. Senate race. Conway’s poll ratings have improved, but almost as many voters view him negatively as positively, and he has allowed P’Pool to introduce himself to voters on TV without running any ads of his own, making Democrats scratch their heads and worry. Conway says he's keeping close track and has seen no gains by P'Pool to warrant ads yet.
More than any other candidate, P’Pool is running an anti-Obama campaign, aligning himself with coal and vowing to join Republican attorney generals’ lawsuit against “Obamacare.” That’s a meaningless promise, but P’Pool will appeal to some voters who want to cast a protest vote against the current situation and incumbents from Obama on down, but can’t bring themselves to be for Williams.
The latest poll had Conway ahead by only 47-36, putting P’Pool in striking distance if he can raise the money for a strong TV campaign. He took a step toward that last week at a fundraiser featuring Fletcher, the former governor’s first political foray since he was ousted. (Don’t look for Fletcher to help Williams, who said during the hiring scandal that Fletcher couldn’t be re-elected.)
Not only would Republicans like a Republican attorney general to keep check on a Democratic governor, if Conway were to win a second statewide race, that would secure his place as a Democrat to be reckoned with in the future. If he lost a second race in a row, his political career might be over. That may be one reason Sen. Mitch McConnell’s former field man, Larry Cox, is P’Pool’s campaign chairman.
Comer, a farmer and state representative from Tompkinsville, was the only Republican ahead in the poll, leading public-relations man Bob Farmer of Louisville 37-36. That’s not a real lead, but Farmer may be losing the argument that a farm background is not necessary for the job. Go to mycn2.com to see his 9-minute interview with Ryan Alessi, and www.ket.org to watch his face-off with Comer last week on “Kentucky Tonight.” On that show, Comer twice voted to “improve morale” in Richie Farmer’s department; he knows the air is out of that basketball.
Comer and P’Pool have talked about doing a joint “Corn and Coal” tour. To win, they must awaken a snoozing GOP base. Williams has led his party to historic legislative victories, but relatively few Republicans seem to be rallying around him now. And the fate of the ticket usually depends on the top.
Written by Al Cross
With the economy sputtering and President Obama more unpopular than ever, there should be much buzz among Kentucky Republicans about taking back the governorship that Democrat Steve Beshear took from their scandal-hobbled Ernie Fletcher four years ago.
But with eight weeks left in the race, the only buzz in the GOP about state Senate President David Williams comes from dismay and questions about his campaign. That has some Republicans, including Fletcher, helping new talent down the ballot. But Williams has thrown such a wet blanket on the party that it’s unlikely to have any success Nov. 8.
For five weeks in August and September, Williams was off television while Beshear ran positive ads and a shadowy pro-Beshear group ran spots tearing Williams down. His rating in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, Aug. 25-28, was well over 2 to 1 negative. The poll showed him trailing Beshear 55 percent to 28 percent, with independent Gatewood Galbraith getting 10 percent.
Meanwhile, Williams’ website displayed his previous ad with a plea to give $50 to “keep” the spot on the air, though it had vanished long before. Those sorts of things happen when you lose your campaign manager and don’t replace him. That also happened in August.
When Williams finally returned to TV last week, it was not in the major markets of Louisville and Lexington, but in the generally less expensive markets. It’s apparent he did not get what he had hoped from the Aug. 25 fundraiser in Louisville with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
And the ad itself, a combined attack on Beshear with an anti-Obama, pro-coal pitch from Williams, is short on facts. Most of the 100,000 jobs that it says were lost under Beshear have been recouped, and the ad repeats the red-herring line about Kentucky being the “worst managed state,” a rating by a non-authoritative website that relied more on long-term trends than short-term issues related to Beshear. Our bad management goes back to the period right after the Civil War.
Williams has issues to talk about, such as tax reform, but he trails so badly that Beshear feels free to continue his non-engagement strategy with impunity and pull out of a candidates’ forum in Louisville today.
Williams’ campaign is like a wagon with wheels in both ditches and axles dragging. Tea-party elements dislike his votes for taxes, and the GOP’s moderate, largely urban voters just don’t care for him personally and apparently won’t listen to his arguments. His personality, or the perception thereof, probably precludes persuasion, and the polls leave Republicans dispirited.
Williams hoped having Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer as his running mate would be the sugar to stanch his vinegar, but Farmer’s series of foibles have turned him from a basketball hero who was Kentucky’s most popular politician to one with a net negative rating in the poll.
With the top of the ticket in such trouble, some Republicans are turning their attention to down-ballot races: agriculture commissioner, attorney general, auditor, secretary of state and treasurer. I believe no Republican has ever won initial election to one of those offices when a Democrat won the governorship, but party labels mean less and less to voters, giving Republicans hope.
The Great GOP Hope of the moment is the attorney-general nominee, Hopkins County Attorney Todd P’Pool, with secondary attention to ag-commissioner nominee James Comer, who may have a better shot.
P’Pool is challenging Jack Conway, who hurt himself in last fall’s U.S. Senate race. Conway’s poll ratings have improved, but almost as many voters view him negatively as positively, and he has allowed P’Pool to introduce himself to voters on TV without running any ads of his own, making Democrats scratch their heads and worry. Conway says he's keeping close track and has seen no gains by P'Pool to warrant ads yet.
More than any other candidate, P’Pool is running an anti-Obama campaign, aligning himself with coal and vowing to join Republican attorney generals’ lawsuit against “Obamacare.” That’s a meaningless promise, but P’Pool will appeal to some voters who want to cast a protest vote against the current situation and incumbents from Obama on down, but can’t bring themselves to be for Williams.
The latest poll had Conway ahead by only 47-36, putting P’Pool in striking distance if he can raise the money for a strong TV campaign. He took a step toward that last week at a fundraiser featuring Fletcher, the former governor’s first political foray since he was ousted. (Don’t look for Fletcher to help Williams, who said during the hiring scandal that Fletcher couldn’t be re-elected.)
Not only would Republicans like a Republican attorney general to keep check on a Democratic governor, if Conway were to win a second statewide race, that would secure his place as a Democrat to be reckoned with in the future. If he lost a second race in a row, his political career might be over. That may be one reason Sen. Mitch McConnell’s former field man, Larry Cox, is P’Pool’s campaign chairman.
Comer, a farmer and state representative from Tompkinsville, was the only Republican ahead in the poll, leading public-relations man Bob Farmer of Louisville 37-36. That’s not a real lead, but Farmer may be losing the argument that a farm background is not necessary for the job. Go to mycn2.com to see his 9-minute interview with Ryan Alessi, and www.ket.org to watch his face-off with Comer last week on “Kentucky Tonight.” On that show, Comer twice voted to “improve morale” in Richie Farmer’s department; he knows the air is out of that basketball.
Comer and P’Pool have talked about doing a joint “Corn and Coal” tour. To win, they must awaken a snoozing GOP base. Williams has led his party to historic legislative victories, but relatively few Republicans seem to be rallying around him now. And the fate of the ticket usually depends on the top.
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posted by KYJurisDoctor at 8:08 AM
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