Bob Novak: Kentucky leans Fletcher.
Syndicated Columnist and Political Pundit, Robert Novak, who last month leaned Northup, has switched his leaning to Fletcher. This is what he had to say this time:
Kentucky: Despite what we perceived as a promising start, former Rep. Anne Northup (R) has flopped so far, remaining flat in the race for the Republican nomination for governor. Incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) has run ads effective in portraying himself as the victim of Democratic attacks. Northup's ads, which began just recently, have been judged uninspiring.
Fletcher's previously negligible lead has quickly grown by seven points in the most recent local poll, putting him at the all-important 40 percent mark that would allow him to avoid a runoff. Northup has stayed flat at 31 percent. Fletcher's continued poor showing in the polls still holds forth hope for Northup, but he may survive the May 22 primary.
There is little question that he would win the election if it were held today. Leaning Fletcher.
What say ye?
Kentucky: Despite what we perceived as a promising start, former Rep. Anne Northup (R) has flopped so far, remaining flat in the race for the Republican nomination for governor. Incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) has run ads effective in portraying himself as the victim of Democratic attacks. Northup's ads, which began just recently, have been judged uninspiring.
Fletcher's previously negligible lead has quickly grown by seven points in the most recent local poll, putting him at the all-important 40 percent mark that would allow him to avoid a runoff. Northup has stayed flat at 31 percent. Fletcher's continued poor showing in the polls still holds forth hope for Northup, but he may survive the May 22 primary.
There is little question that he would win the election if it were held today. Leaning Fletcher.
What say ye?
Labels: Kentucky politics, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 6:24 PM
7 Comments:
Novak is wrong. It has always been leaning toward Fletcher. When you talk to the voters and not listen to the media bias, Fletcher has been ahead from the start.
As much as I want Anne to win because Fletcher doesn't deserve to be reelected and he can't win in November, Novak is right. I've been disappointed with Anne so far. But I'm still holding out hope that she can pull it out on May 22nd but I think Fletcher will unfortunately get the nomination.
I think Mitch McConnell influenced Novak's preliminary judgment last month. Novak usually does his homework more thoroughly.
Note that this is twice during the past four years that McConnell has flopped in hand-picking a candidate; in 2004 he pushed Alice Kerr ahead of more electable candidates to try to retain the 6th CD after Fletcher vacated the seat to be inaugurated Gov. That race was an embarrassment for the GOP.
Fletcher burned lots of bridges during his first gubernatorial campaign and early tenure in Frnkfort; that is why he had weak support in the face of the all-out partisan attack by Stumbo. However, because KY is culturally conservative and the Dems are still unwilling to remake their liberal image, he still has a 50-50 shot at winning in November if he continues to refine his campaign skills; he is a stubborn learner, but he may save his skin just in time.
Ironically, Fletcher will have this primary warm-up to thank, so he would be wise not to hold grudges. If he does win in November, hopefully he will be a more effective governor in the second term and rally for a true conservative agenda as opposed to mere posturing.
Novak is making the same mistake so many on the Fletcher side have made--they are relying on a single faulty poll. Fletcher got a boost from his ads, no doubt, but he isn't in control of this primary by any means. The governor's own internal poll had him ahead by just 2 points. Novak is off the mark on this one.
Um...what about Billy Harper
I'd like to see Harper win, but he's got to be considered a huge underdog.
Fletcher is a huge ASS.
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