**** SURVEYUSA polls are out: UNDECIDEDS hold key to Republican Primary; Democrats Henry skids and Lunsford soars. ****

The latest SURVEYUSA polls are out for the Governors' races. For Democrats, the poll (view pie chart), with a margin of error of 4.3%, Henry slid off the top spot. He loses 6% points (those news articles about him "fudging the truth" are hurting), and Lunsford surges to 20% -- a gain of 13% from last poll -- at his expense. Other than Gatewood, who gained 2% to climb to 8% and UNDECIDEDS which is STILL large at 13%, the rest of the field lost or stayed the same (Richards by 1% (that session didn't go too well), Hemsley (by 1%), Beshear (0%), and Miller (0%) (I guess the ad didn't change any body's mind). With a foreboding runoff election staring at them, Democrats are going to chase those undecided votes to STOP Lunsford's surge, if they can.
For Republicans, (click to view pie chart), Fletcher gained 7% to 40%, Northup stayed at 31% and Harper flat-lined at near 16% (with a gain of 1%). Fletcher's margin over Northup is above the poll's 4.9% margin of error, meaning that he is leading NOW. UNDECIDEDS, who I predict will determine the election outcome for Republicans, are STILL a large 13%, down from 15%. That means that whoever gets a chunk of this group will pull it off in May. I will further analyze the rest of the polling data later this evening, so check back.

UPDATE: 7:55 PM: I shall only do a limited analysis here. Click complete analysis for more. These poll numbers are very good news for Fletcher and Lunsford. Other than the total numbers, regionally Fletcher lost 1% support in Western Kentucky, but gained in Louisville (1%), North Central (10%) and Eastern (5%). Anne Northup gained in Western Kentucky (8%), but lost in Louisville (8% -- a mystery), North Central (4%) and Eastern Kentucky (9%). Harper, on the other hand, lost ground (1% -- a mystery, also) in Western Kentucky, stayed the same in Louisville (8%), gained (5%) in North Central but lost (5%) in Eastern. Whatever Fletcher and Lunsford did since the last poll was taken in March seems to have worked for them -- Fletcher has run his ad and so has Lunsford. Also Fletcher has sent out glossy (eye catching) mail-outs. It remains to be seen whether those events made the difference for both Fletcher and Lunsford. We won't know that until their opponents run their ads -- Miller, Lunsford's opponent, has recently started running his ad. The next SURVEYUSA poll should answer that question -- provided their opponents ads and mail-outs have gone out by then!

Update #2: I received this response to the poll from the Northup campaign:

Polling Update

WHAS TV has released a new poll today, showing that after 3.5 years of incumbency, 98% name recognition going into this race, and a $1 million barrage of TV ads, mail pieces, and recorded phone calls-- 60% of Republicans are not supporting Ernie Fletcher!
The Northup-Hoover campaign will be up on the air soon and voters will have a chance to hear from Anne Northup, the only Republican that can win this November.

County Visits

As the campaign heats up, so do the busy campaign schedules for Anne and Jeff. When Anne Northup is working her way through one county, running mate Jeff Hoover is making his way through another. Our campaign is covering huge portions of the Commonwealth each week!
Last week, Anne and Jeff made visits to seven different counties- Hardin County, Knox County, Wayne County, Clinton County, Kenton County, Allen County and Monroe County.
This week as the two hit the road, they are expected to visit Fayette County, Pulaski County, Clark County, Jackson County, Estill County, Clay County, Leslie County, Owsley County, Lee County and Rockcastle County.

Be sure to be on the lookout for them as they criss-cross Kentucky.