Rowan County, Kentucky, Clerk And Voters.

Kentucky voters are divided on whether Kim Davis should resign

Kentucky voters are split on whether lawmakers should remove Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis from office, but a majority say the procedure for marriage licenses should be reworked to either accommodate religious clerks or take them out of the process.

The latest Bluegrass Poll, released Thursday, found that 47 percent of registered voters believe Davis should remain in office while 46 percent want her removed. Another 7 percent were not sure.

That falls within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning that voters are evenly divided.

“I’m a Christian, and I believe that a marriage is between a man and a woman,” said Iona O’Banion, one respondent in the poll.. “But she’s the county clerk. It is her job to issue marriage licenses. And if it is the law of the land, then that’s what she is supposed to do.”

O’Banion, a 78-year-old retiree in Owen County, said the attention Davis has brought to Kentucky has been “awful,” and she believes the clerk is only basking in the limelight.

“Everybody looks on us like we don’t have shoes and teeth,” she said. “I just feel like she is enjoying herself to the hilt.”

But David Smith, a Southern Baptist who lives in Richmond, said Davis should be allowed to continue serving without being forced to sign a document that conflicts with her Apostolic Christian religion.

“She has stood up for her religious beliefs, and I think there ought to be accommodations made to allow her to do that,” he said. “There are other officeholders that feel the same way, and this is going to be a problem from now on.”

Smith said he favors creating an online system for marriage licenses that removes county clerks from the process. However, he doubts the legislature will take the issue up next year out of political correctness.

Thursday’s poll found that 31 percent of registered voters believe the state should create an online system for marriage licenses.

Another 29 percent say county clerks who oppose same-sex marriage should be allowed to remove their names from the forms.

Meanwhile, 34 percent of those surveyed said lawmakers should leave the system alone and require clerks to issue licenses to all couples, regardless of personal beliefs.

Conducted by SurveyUSA, the Bluegrass Poll is a joint effort by The Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-11 and WKYT-TV. It gauged the opinions of 1,016 registered voters from Oct. 23-26.

Davis received some of her biggest support from conservatives, voters over the age of 65 and those who live in rural areas. Those groups also were more likely to favor accommodations for religious clerks.

Liberals, younger voters, people with a four-year degree and those living in more urban areas tended to believe that Davis should be removed from office. Political moderates also favored removal 58 percent to 30 percent.

As an elected official, Davis can only be removed from office through impeachment. The Kentucky House of Representatives would have to charge her with an impeachable offense, and the Senate would then try her. But that’s viewed as unlikely given Kentucky’s political makeup.

Regarding licenses, at least two bills have been pre-filed for the 2016 General Assembly.

One would move licensing duties from county clerks to the state registrar of vital statistics. The other would specify that forcing someone to issue or record a marriage license over their religious objections would violate the state’s religious freedom law.

Chris Hartman, director of the Fairness Campaign, said Thursday that the plurality of voters are right in opposing changes to the license process.

“There is no need to make changes, and the state legislature doesn’t need to waste taxpayer dollars and time debating a system that is not broken,” he said.

He said using an online system would create problems verifying people’s identity and that allowing clerks to remove their names would open the door to a never-ending cycle of exemptions. He, likewise, argues that the Kim Davis situation will be resolved without intervention from the legislature.

“She will either be compelled by the court to follow the law, or she is going to have to resign,” Hartman said.

Still, the Rev. Randy Smith, an evangelist in Rowan County who supports Davis, said he was encouraged that 60 percent of respondents are calling for some type of action to help county clerks.

He said that Kentucky should not even be in the position of needing legislation to prop up the First Amendment and that the Beshear administration should have anticipated issues.

“If we don’t have religious liberty, we don’t have a nation,” Smith said. “I would be willing to pay all of my tax dollars to this very subject to preserve religious liberty.”

Smith also said that responses to the question on removing Davis would have reflected more support for the clerk if poll respondents had more answers to choose from.

“If people understood more about the importance and the value of religious liberty, even into local as well as state and federal levels, I think they would be more in favor of religious liberty,” he said.

New SurveyUSA Poll Finds A Recurrent Statistical Dead Heat, With Jack Conwa Leading By 5%.

Bluegrass Poll: Jack Conway maintains edge over Matt Bevin with just days to go
BY SAM YOUNGMAN

With just days remaining in the race to be Kentucky's next governor, Democrat Jack Conway continues to hold a slight advantage over Republican Matt Bevin, according to the latest Bluegrass poll.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington and the Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV in Louisville, showed Conway leading Bevin 45 percent to 40 percent with independent candidate Drew Curtis pulling 6 percent.

The poll surveyed 798 likely Kentucky voters on their home phone or electronic device from Oct. 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which means the race for governor technically remains a statistical toss-up.

Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, said that "we have seen enough polls favoring Conway, run by different groups using different methods, that it's decreasingly likely the results are a fluke."

"Bevin needs a sudden shift in voter preferences if he hopes to win this contest, and he may be dragging down some of his Republican ticket mates as well," Voss said.

Bevin has never led in his race against Conway, and the latest poll results indicate that an unrelenting barrage of ads attacking Bevin's character have had a significant impact on the campaign.

The survey shows Bevin's favorable rating underwater for the first time, with 38 percent of voters holding an unfavorable view of him compared to 32 percent who hold a favorable view. Twenty-one percent were neutral and 9 percent had no opinion.

When the same question was asked in late September, Bevin was still on the plus side, with 35 percent of respondents holding a favorable view and 33 percent holding an unfavorable view.

By contrast, Conway's numbers have stayed just above water. Thirty-six percent of respondents have a favorable view of the Democrat and 32 percent have an unfavorable view. Thirty-two percent said they were either neutral or had no opinion.

Sally Young, a poll respondent from Mayfield who agreed to a follow-up interview, said she is supporting Conway because of the job he has done as the state's attorney general.

"I thought he did good at the other job, and I think he'll make a good governor, as compared to Bevin," Young said. "I'm not voting for [Bevin]."

Curtis remains little known across the state, with 11 percent holding a favorable impression, 9 percent holding an unfavorable view and 80 percent saying they were either neutral or have no opinion.

"Any hope that Drew Curtis might have helped swing the election to Bevin by drawing off left-leaning voters appears to be dwindling," Voss said. "Because both support and opposition to Curtis appears balanced on the two sides of the ideological spectrum."

Adding weight to the notion that Conway has effectively raised questions about Bevin's character, 37 percent of respondents said Conway was the more honest candidate. Only 26 percent said Bevin was more honest, and 10 percent chose Curtis.

Again, that is a change from the Bluegrass Poll conducted in late September, which showed voters almost evenly divided on which candidate was more honest: 30 percent chose Conway, 27 percent picked Bevin and 13 percent said Curtis.

Doyle Berry, a poll respondent from Campbellsville, said he is leaning toward supporting Bevin because he thinks "the parties need to change around every so often."

"I just think we need a change in the politics of Kentucky," Berry said.

Bevin's opposition to the state's Medicaid expansion also appears to be hurting him with registered voters, a majority of which favor maintaining the eligibility expansion that Gov. Steve Beshear implemented two years ago.

Fifty-four percent of voters said they want the state's next governor to maintain the expansion. Only 24 percent said they would like to see the expansion repealed, which Bevin has promised to do if elected. Twenty-two percent were not sure.

Support for maintaining the expanded health insurance program, which serves mostly low-income residents, reaches across the state's different regions and extends to about a third — 34 percent — of Republicans.

Forty-two percent of Republicans said they would like to see the expansion reversed, compared to only 13 percent of Democrats. More than two-thirds of Democrats — 69 percent — said the Medicaid expansion should be maintained.

Both major-party candidates continue to have trouble within their own parties, which has generally been an issue for Democratic candidates but not Republicans in recent elections.

Seventy-one percent of Democrats surveyed said they are supporting Conway, compared to 17 percent who said they will vote for Bevin. Among Republicans, 72 percent backed Bevin and 12 percent picked Conway.

Those numbers get worse for Bevin, who famously ran against U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell last year, upon close inspection.

The poll found that Conway snagged 8 percent of likely voters who identify as "strong Republicans," 10 percent of likely voters who identify as "Republicans" and 15 percent of likely voters who identify as "independents who lean Republican."

Voss noted that "Kentucky still contains more Democratic voters than Republican voters, so the Republican path to victory requires overwhelming support among voters affiliated with the GOP and healthy support among Democrats."

"Instead, Conway seems to enjoy more loyalty from the state's ideologically divided Democratic voters than Bevin has mustered among Republicans," Voss said.

Conway's lead extends to both men and women, with men giving Conway 45 percent support to Bevin's 41 percent and women saying they will back Conway 45 percent to 39 percent.

"Bevin does not have the lead among male voters that a Republican candidate typically needs," Voss said. "And he continues to trail badly among the independents and moderate Democrats who typically determine Kentucky's election outcomes."

Ultimately, less than half of Kentucky's voters are satisfied with their choices for governor this year, but that number is slightly worse for Bevin than it is for Conway.

Forty-four percent of respondents said they are satisfied with their options, while 38 percent said they were unsatisfied and 18 percent said they were unsure.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2015/10/28/4109888_bluegrass-poll-jack-conway-maintains.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy

Editor's note: see poll results in pdf.

for down ticket poll results, click here.

By A Slim Margin, Poll Results Show Voters Want Republicans To Control Kentucky's House Of Representatives.

Bluegrass Poll: Kentucky voters split on which political party should lead the state House

File: See the detailed poll results for right-to-work law, miminum wage and control of House
As Republicans try to take over the state House for the first time since 1921, a new poll shows Kentucky voters split on on the question of which political party should run the law-making chamber in Frankfort.

Forty-five percent of registered voters think Republicans would do a better job in controlling the state House, while 44 percent side with Democrats, the latest Bluegrass Poll shows. Eleven percent were not sure.

The Bluegrass Poll, sponsored by the Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington and The Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV in Louisville, was conducted Aug. 25 to 27 by SurveyUSA with 647 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover, R-Jamestown, said the poll's results reflected "what we are hearing across the commonwealth, which is if we ever want to move Kentucky forward and bring more jobs and more opportunity to our people, a change in leadership in the House of Representatives is sorely needed and long overdue."

House Speaker Greg Stumbo, D-Prestonsburg, said the poll question lacked credibility.

"It's like asking people what they think of Washington," he said. "They'll tell you they don't like it. But ask them if they like their congressman, and most of them say they do.

"Good gracious, I even like Hal Rogers," hesaid of the Somerset Republican who represents the 5th Congressional District in Eastern and Southern Kentucky.

A more important question, said Stumbo, would be who leads specific House races.

"From the polling I've seen on them, I'm more than confident that we can hold on in the House and maybe even increase our majority," he said.

Scott Lasley, a political science professor at Western Kentucky University who is an active Republican, said he was "a little bit surprised" that the poll did not show even more Kentuckians backing Republicans to control the House.

"I would argue that Kentucky is a red state even though voter registration records show more Democrats than Republicans," he said. (Registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans 1.67 million to 1.21 million in Kentucky."

"Voter registration is a poor measure of party identification," Lasley said. "Kentucky has been becoming more Republican in politics, and I think that will continue."

Lasley said he thought Republicans would be the majority party in the House now if former Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher did not get involved in a hiring scandal, which led to losing his 2007 re-election bid to Democrat Steve Beshear.

Democrats now hold a 54-46 advantage in the state House, but Republicans have been gaining ground. Twenty years ago, Democrats held a 71-29 advantage.

All 100 House seats are on the ballot this fall, but only 53 are contested.

A Republican takeover of the House probably would mean issues the GOP has backed for decades would become law considering Republicans have controlled the Senate since 2000.

Issues of prime interest to Republicans that have been blocked in the House range from right-to-work, in which workers may take jobs without joining unions, to tougher abortion bills.

Al Crabb of Lexington, a poll respondent who agreed to a follow-up interview with the Herald-Leader, said Democrats should remain in control of the state House.

"I'm worried about the direction this state is going in, becoming more red," said the retired University of Kentucky English faculty member.

Garen Reece, an information technologist in Laurel County, said no political party that has President Barack Obama as a member should run the state House. He also said he thought Republicans could do a better job in creating higher-paid jobs.

"I don't agree with Barack Obama, Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi, and nearly anyone in their party," Reece said.

The poll shows 49 percent of men and 41 percent of women in the state think Republicans would do a better job leading the House, compared to 42 percent of men and 46 percent of women who back Democrats.

The GOP preference increases with age.

Thirty-six percent of poll respondents ages 18 to 34 go with the Republicans, while 44 percent in that age range back Democrats. For respondents 65 and older, 50 percent endorsed the GOP, while 46 percent chose Democrats.

The difference in preference is more stark among whites and blacks. Forty-seven percent of whites sided with Republicans, while only 13 percent of blacks picked the GOP.

Only 7 percent of Democrats voiced support for a Republican takeover, but 16 percent of Republicans said they would be fine with Democrats in charge.

The poll showed 60 percent of respondents who make $80,000 or more a year favored Republican control, while 51 percent with incomes of $40,000 or less went with the Democrats.

Geographically, Republicans were strongest in the eastern and western ends of the state. Fifty-two percent of respondents from Eastern Kentucky embraced Republicans and 37 percent chose Democrats. In Western Kentucky, 50 percent of the respondents selected Republicans and 42 percent preferred Democrats.

In the Louisville area and north-central Kentucky, which includes Lexington, more people wanted Democrats rather than Republicans to run the House — 48 percent to 39 percent in the Louisville area and 46 percent to 42 percent in north-central Kentucky.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/31/3405807_bluegrass-poll-kentucky-voters.html?sp=/99/322/&rh=1#storylink=cpy

Pre Election Day Polling For Kentucky. Watch Video.

Associated Press (AP) Poll: Majority Harbor Prejudice Against Blacks. And I Ask: So What Else Is New?

AP poll: Majority harbor prejudice against blacks
By SONYA ROSS and JENNIFER AGIESTA

WASHINGTON — Racial attitudes have not improved in the four years since the United States elected its first black president, an Associated Press poll finds, as a slight majority of Americans now express prejudice toward blacks whether they recognize those feelings or not.

Those views could cost President Barack Obama votes as he tries for re-election, the survey found, though the effects are mitigated by some people's more favorable views of blacks.

Racial prejudice has increased slightly since 2008 whether those feelings were measured using questions that explicitly asked respondents about racist attitudes, or through an experimental test that measured implicit views toward race without asking questions about that topic directly.

In all, 51 percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.

"As much as we'd hope the impact of race would decline over time ... it appears the impact of anti-black sentiment on voting is about the same as it was four years ago," said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University professor who worked with AP to develop the survey.

Most Americans expressed anti-Hispanic sentiments, too. In an AP survey done in 2011, 52 percent of non-Hispanic whites expressed anti-Hispanic attitudes. That figure rose to 57 percent in the implicit test. The survey on Hispanics had no past data for comparison.

The AP surveys were conducted with researchers from Stanford University, the University of Michigan and NORC at the University of Chicago.

Experts on race said they were not surprised by the findings.

"We have this false idea that there is uniformity in progress and that things change in one big step. That is not the way history has worked," said Jelani Cobb, professor of history and director of the Institute for African-American Studies at the University of Connecticut. "When we've seen progress, we've also seen backlash."

Obama has tread cautiously on the subject of race, but many African-Americans have talked openly about perceived antagonism toward them since Obama took office. As evidence, they point to events involving police brutality or cite bumper stickers, cartoons and protest posters that mock the president as a lion or a monkey, or lynch him in effigy.

"Part of it is growing polarization within American society," said Fredrick Harris, director of the Institute for Research in African-American Studies at Columbia University. "The last Democrat in the White House said we had to have a national discussion about race. There's been total silence around issues of race with this president. But, as you see, whether there is silence, or an elevation of the discussion of race, you still have polarization. It will take more generations, I suspect, before we eliminate these deep feelings."

Overall, the survey found that by virtue of racial prejudice, Obama could lose 5 percentage points off his share of the popular vote in his Nov. 6 contest against Republican challenger Mitt Romney. But Obama also stands to benefit from a 3 percentage point gain due to pro-black sentiment, researchers said. Overall, that means an estimated net loss of 2 percentage points due to anti-black attitudes.

The poll finds that racial prejudice is not limited to one group of partisans. Although Republicans were more likely than Democrats to express racial prejudice in the questions measuring explicit racism (79 percent among Republicans compared with 32 percent among Democrats), the implicit test found little difference between the two parties. That test showed a majority of both Democrats and Republicans held anti-black feelings (55 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans), as did about half of political independents (49 percent).

Obama faced a similar situation in 2008, the survey then found.

The AP developed the surveys to measure sensitive racial views in several ways and repeated those studies several times between 2008 and 2012.

The explicit racism measures asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with a series of statements about black and Hispanic people. In addition, the surveys asked how well respondents thought certain words, such as "friendly," "hardworking," "violent" and "lazy," described blacks, whites and Hispanics.

The same respondents were also administered a survey designed to measure implicit racism, in which a photo of a black, Hispanic or white male flashed on the screen before a neutral image of a Chinese character. The respondents were then asked to rate their feelings toward the Chinese character. Previous research has shown that people transfer their feelings about the photo onto the character, allowing researchers to measure racist feelings even if a respondent does not acknowledge them.

Results from those questions were analyzed with poll takers' ages, partisan beliefs, views on Obama and Romney and other factors, which allowed researchers to predict the likelihood that people would vote for either Obama or Romney. Those models were then used to estimate the net impact of each factor on the candidates' support.

All the surveys were conducted online. Other research has shown that poll takers are more likely to share unpopular attitudes when they are filling out a survey using a computer rather than speaking with an interviewer. Respondents were randomly selected from a nationally representative panel maintained by GfK Custom Research.

Overall results from each survey have a margin of sampling error of approximately plus or minus 4 percentage points. The most recent poll, measuring anti-black views, was conducted Aug. 30 to Sept. 11.

Andra Gillespie, an Emory University political scientist who studies race-neutrality among black politicians, contrasted the situation to that faced by the first black mayors elected in major U.S. cities, the closest parallel to Obama's first-black situation. Those mayors, she said, typically won about 20 percent of the white vote in their first races, but when seeking reelection they enjoyed greater white support presumably because "the whites who stayed in the cities ... became more comfortable with a black executive."

"President Obama's election clearly didn't change those who appear to be sort of hard-wired folks with racial resentment," she said.

Negative racial attitudes can manifest in policy, noted Alan Jenkins, an assistant solicitor general during the Clinton administration and now executive director of the Opportunity Agenda think tank.

"That has very real circumstances in the way people are treated by police, the way kids are treated by teachers, the way home seekers are treated by landlords and real estate agents," Jenkins said.

Hakeem Jeffries, a New York state assemblyman and candidate for a congressional seat being vacated by a fellow black Democrat, called it troubling that more progress on racial attitudes had not been made. Jeffries has fought a New York City police program of "stop and frisk" that has affected mostly blacks and Latinos but which supporters contend is not racially focused.

"I do remain cautiously optimistic that the future of America bends toward the side of increased racial tolerance," Jeffries said. "We've come a long way, but clearly these results demonstrate there's a long way to go."

---
AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/10/27/2386273/ap-poll-majority-harbor-prejudice.html#storylink=cpy

EDITOR'S NOTE:CHECK OUT THE AP POLL HERE.

NEW POLL FINDS BARACK OBAMA IN STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT. NOW LET'S SEE HOW MANY FOLKS WILL BLAME A LYING LIBERAL NEWS MEDIA!

Aging Supreme Court justices may open seats for next president By Michael Doyle

WASHINGTON — Senior citizens dominate the Supreme Court. Some will leave in the next four years, and this year’s election for president will determine who’ll fill any vacancies on the court, President Barack Obama or President Mitt Romney. Whichever party is in charge, a vacancy in the next presidential term seems a foregone conclusion, perhaps more than one.

Four Supreme Court justices are over the age of 70: Stephen Breyer is 74, Anthony Kennedy and Antonin Scalia are 76 and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a pancreatic cancer survivor, is 79.

Ginsburg, for one, has hinted that she intends to match the court tenure of the late Justice Louis Brandeis, a goal that, if held to, would have her retiring in 2015. That’s within the next presidential term.

“I was appointed at age 60, the same age that Louis Bidenz Brandeis was when he was appointed to the court,” Ginsburg told a George Washington University audience last year. “He stayed until he was (82). So I do have a way to go.”

The last 10 justices to depart the Supreme Court had an average age of nearly 80, though John Paul Stevens skewed this average upward when he stepped down in 2010 at the age of 90.

If any or all leave the court, the ensuing confirmation struggles could shape law and politics for years to come. Yet despite the court’s significance to their own futures, neither Obama nor Romney has dwelled on the subject. Tellingly, neither man even mentioned the court in his nomination acceptance speech.

“It has been quite remarkable to me, the fact that talk about the Supreme Court has been entirely absent from the campaign,” acknowledged Steven Shapiro, the legal director of the American Civil Liberties Union. “I have literally not heard it mentioned even once.”

In part, the candidates are taking their cues from indifferent voters. The Supreme Court ranks at the bottom, at best, when pollsters ask about the most important issues the country faces. Few Americans surveyed can name John Roberts Jr. as the court’s chief justice, a position he’s held since 2005. Nearly half didn’t know the court had upheld the Obama administration’s health care law.

Behind the scenes, though, analysts and insiders are sizing up the possible appointments

As a president, Obama already has a track record. He sent Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan to the high court.

Romney’s background lies in Massachusetts, where he served as governor, and in his campaign for the Republican nomination.

Conservatives complained that Romney bent to the left while making appointments in Democratic-dominated Massachusetts. A Boston Globe survey found that Romney had appointed nine registered Republicans, 14 registered Democrats and 13 unaffiliated individuals, in a state politically dominated by Democrats.

As a presidential candidate, though, Romney has emphasized his conservative bona fides by praising the likes of Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito. In a symbolic nod to the right, Romney named failed Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork to co-chair his judicial advisory committee.

“Our nation needs a Congress and an executive branch that are cognizant of the bounds of their powers and a judiciary that will strictly construe the Constitution and refuse to legislate from the bench,” Romney said.

Age matters, as presidents try to place judges who can rule for several decades. Based on past experience, the next Supreme Court nominee will be 55 or younger. This means the Supreme Court moment probably has passed for previous front-runner candidates such as Judge Diane Wood of the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Wood was a finalist in Obama’s thinking for the last two openings, in 2009 and 2010, but she’s now 62.

“A President Romney would have a deep, strong bench of outstanding and relatively young candidates to choose from,” said conservative attorney Ed Whelan, the president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a former Supreme Court clerk. “The Democratic bench is much thinner and older.”

Diversity could be an issue, though this also can take many forms.

Currently, for instance, all nine justices earned their law degrees from one of three Ivy League schools. Only one has Western roots. All are either Jewish or Roman Catholic, none has been elected to office and none has served in the active-duty military.
Any nomination calculus also must account for Congress, particularly if different parties control the Senate and the White House after November. Senators of both parties have been escalating fights over top judicial nominees; another oft-mentioned potential GOP high-court nominee, Jeffrey Sutton, drew 41 Democratic “no” votes on an appellate court nomination. Retaliation is now the rule, as became apparent last year when Senate Republicans blocked Sacramento, Calif., native Goodwin Liu from an appellate court slot.

“I think the ramifications of this filibuster are going to be long and difficult for those who caused this good man to be filibustered,” Democratic California Sen. Barbara Boxer warned at the time.

Among potential Democratic nominees, Judge Merrick Garland of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, a former prosecutor, wins praise for his intellect and moderation, though his prospects are hurt by his turning 60 a week after the election. Former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, a 53-year-old Harvard Law School graduate, still appeals to those who want real-world political experience on the court, as does Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, a 54-year-old former Arizona governor.

California Attorney General Kamala Harris, 47, has likewise seen her name floated. It isn’t a possibility she publicly entertains. “She is very focused on her job as attorney general,” Harris spokesman Shum Preston said.

Among potential Republican nominees, former Bush administration Solicitor General Paul Clement is, at 46, often characterized as the nation’s best Supreme Court advocate and a nomination front-runner by any measure. Neck and neck as a potential GOP contender may be one of Garland’s highly regarded colleagues on the D.C.-based appellate court, 47-year-old Judge Brett Kavanaugh. At least a dozen other Republican appointees on the nation’s appellate courts, the bench from which Supreme Court nominees often are picked, are likewise under the age of 53.

Lower-level federal courts, too, will present the next president with myriad lifetime appointment possibilities. There are currently 78 vacancies on the federal bench, according to the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. At most, only a small number might be filled in the Senate’s post-election lame-duck session.

Obama has nominated 186 judges; so far, 133 have been confirmed. Romney, while serving one term as governor of Massachusetts, nominated 36 judges to the state bench.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/10/01/170235/aging-supreme-court-justices-may.html#storylink=cpy

BLUEGRASS POLL: MITT ROMNEY LEADS BARACK OBAMA IN KENTUCKY 53% TO 39%, BUT WHO CARES? THE PRESIDENT WILL WIN RE-ELECTION BY A WIDE MARGIN IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, BECAUSE THE GOP GOOFED BY CHOOSING MITT ROMNEY WHO IS NOT A TRUE CONSERVATIVE!

Romney has large lead in Kentucky, Bluegrass Poll shows
Survey suggests Republican's margin has more to do with voter dislike of Obama
Written by
Joseph Gerth

President Barack Obama trails his GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, in the presidential race in Kentucky 53 percent to 39 percent, according to the latest Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

But the findings suggest that Romney’s 14-point lead has more to do with voters’ dislike of Obama than it does with their support for the GOP nominee.

The poll of 606 likely voters was conducted Sept. 11-13 by SurveyUSA. Seventy-six percent of respondents answered a recorded questionnaire on their home phones, while 24 percent, who were pre-screened on cell phones, replied to written surveys sent to them over the Internet.

The margin of error on the main sample of respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The results indicate that Obama’s fortunes in Kentucky haven’t changed much since 2008, when he lost the state to Republican Sen. John McCain by a margin of 57 percent to 41 percent.

Since then, Obama has done little to woo Kentucky voters. Other than to land Air Force One in Northern Kentucky before driving to Cincinnati several times, Obama has been to Kentucky only once — to attend a 2011 ceremony at Fort Campbell to honor the Navy SEALs who killed terrorist Osama bin Laden.

“Romney could only wish the election was going to be decided in Kentucky,” said Ted Jackson, a Republican political consultant in Louisville. “We’re a very conservative state, and on issue after issue after issue, Kentuckians just seem to line up better with Romney.”

Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe of Louisville blamed Obama’s poor poll numbers on racism. “Ohio and Pennsylvania have all kinds of blue-collar people ... they have been hit hard by the economy. Why is (Obama) ahead there and why is he behind in Kentucky? It’s not because they like Romney,” Briscoe said.

Kentucky has never been in play in the election. In May’s Democratic primary, Obama only beat “uncommitted“ by 58 percent to 42 percent.

In fact, only about 10 states are believed to be in play in this year’s presidential race.

The poll found that Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, leads Obama in Kentucky among men and women, in all age groups, among those who say they are tea party members and those who aren’t, those who are conservative and those who oppose abortion rights.



THE COURIER-JOURNAL BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews and Internet surveys conducted Sept. 11 through 13 with 606 likely Kentucky voters by SurveyUSA. Seventy-six percent answered a recorded questionnaire on their home phones, while 24 percent, who were pre-screened on cellphones, replied to written surveys sent over the Internet.

The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.
In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.

He also leads among Republicans, independents, evangelical Christians, gun owners and those who earn more than $40,000 per year.

Romney leads in all regions of the state and had an edge among people no matter their level of education — although his lead among people with college degrees is within the poll’s margin of error.

Obama leads among Democrats and liberals. He also has a narrow advantage among those who consider themselves moderates, but that lead is within the poll’s margin of error. He’s also ahead among people who don’t own guns and those who favor abortion rights.

Obama and Romney are in a statistical tie among those who earn less than $40,000 per year.

The poll found that 24 percent of Democrats said they will cross party lines and vote for Romney while only 6 percent of Republicans said they will back Obama.

When Romney voters were asked if they were voting more “for” Romney or “against” Obama, 57 percent said they were voting more against Obama.

In comparison, 82 percent of Obama backers said they were voting more for Obama than against Romney.
Public opinion

Deborah Novgorodoff, 58, said she is a big supporter of Obama because “I trust his decision-making. He’s not one to shoot from the hip.”

She said she likes Obama’s position on environmental issues and “leaving a legacy of a good Earth.” She also favors his plan on using tax increases to help balance the budget and believes that he is experienced at foreign affairs.

And Novgorodoff, who owns a small market research business, believes Republicans have thwarted Obama’s attempts to get the economy moving again — although she said she and her husband are better off now than they were four years ago.

“I think we would be seeing better results if more of Obama’s policies were really implemented,” she said.

George Gain, a 47-year-old retired Army sergeant living in LaRue County, said that his vote is more about Obama than Romney, even though he says he agrees with Romney on many issues.

Gain said he doesn’t believe Obama has been truthful about unemployment, believes the recent attacks on U.S. diplomatic missions in north Africa and the Middle East are a sign of Obama’s weakness and he hasn’t proved he was born in the U.S.

“His propaganda machine has not truly answered if he’s an American citizen,” Gain said. “In my opinion, he’s not who he portrays himself to be.”

While he said that he doesn’t agree with Romney on religion — Romney is a Mormon — he sides with him on other issues. “I’m against abortion and I’m very conservative.”

Meanwhile, respondents expressed concern about the direction the nation is heading and Obama’s ability to deal with the economy.

Sixty percent of respondents said that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while only 30 percent said the opposite.

And 59 percent of respondents said they disapprove of the job Obama is doing, while 38 percent said they approve.

When asked who can do a better job handling the federal deficit, 49 percent said Romney and 36 percent Obama. When asked who has the better economic plan, 50 percent said Romney and 36 percent Obama.

The best news in the poll for Obama came when people were asked who is more in touch with average working people — Obama got 44 percent to Romney’s 41 percent.

But Obama trails in all four regions of the state as defined by SurveyUSA — and by double digits in all but north-central Kentucky, which includes 31 counties and runs from Oldham County, along the Ohio River to Ashland, then southwest to Lincoln County.
Romney's strength

In the Louisville area — a 14-county area that runs to Breckinridge County in the west, Shelby in the east and Green County in the south — Romney leads 52 percent to 42 percent.

Romney holds his biggest lead in Eastern Kentucky, where Obama has been criticized heavily for his administration’s position on coal mining.

Dewey Clayton, a political science professor at the University of Louisville, said the coal issue is definitely hurting Obama in that part of the state.

“Clearly they perceive the regulations and whatnot costing them jobs, and jobs are a paramount concern to these people,” Clayton said. “It’s a strong message that’s being sent.”

The Number One Overall Winner In Kentucky's Elections Yesterday Was My Favorite Polling Company, SURVEYUSA. As Usual, The Polling Company Was Dead Accurate With It's Polling.

Check out the poll here.

As you can ascertain from the poll results, SURVEYUSA predicted Steve Beshear will end up with 54% of the votes, while David Williams will end up with 29% and Gatewood Galbraith will end up with 9% (8% were undecided).

Guess what?

The FINAL totals were: Steve Beshear garnered 55%, with David Williams garnering 35% (obviously 7% of the undecideds went for him) and Gatewood stuck at the 9% predicted by SURVEYUSA's polling.

How much more accurate can you get?

Lessons from the election?

Well, it appears that "Ain't NOBODY wants David Williams for Kentucky governor". (And if you are David Williams, or someone like him, you MUST NEVER let your enemies or detractors define you -- AND DEFINE YOU FOR YEARS. IT IS hard, AND NEARLY impossible TO TRY TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE DONE TO YOU IF YOU LET THAT HAPPEN). BTW: I heard from MANY Republicans who told me there is NO way they would vote for David Williams

And MORE IMPORTANTLY, if you are the Republican Party, electing ultra conservative, ultra right wing, TEA "Party" candidates (Democrats are SCARED of such candidates), ensures your defeat at the polls, because Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by demographics, are NOT going to vote for those candidates, UNLESS if the Democratic candidate is scandal scarred.

I believe having Sarah Palin endorse him at the end of the campaign SUNK the candidacy of Todd P'Pool, and allowed Jack Conway to win in the end, because Democrats HATE Sarah Palin. Moreover, running constantly against Obama, who was not even on the ballot, and tagging him the BOOGIE MAN of the race, BADLY backfired not just against Todd P'Pool, but against others as well.

Lastly (for me), the other lesson learned is that, in Kentucky and especially in statewide races, he who has the most money to spend on elections is almost certainly GUARANTEED a win. If you doubt me, check out the amounts of money spent by the candidates!

And it certainly doesn't help in Kentucky that Todd P'Pool has a name that will make voters ask: he's not from around here, is he?; a question that dooms the candidacy of anyone who isn't named Brown or any other color -- remember my friend, Addia Wuchner, who was well qualified for Auditor and lost because Kentucky voters figured she was from Mars?!

That's my two cents, folks.

David Williams Gains On Steve Beshear In Latest SurveyUSA poll, Though Steve Beshear Maintains Sizeable Double Digit Lead Over Him.

Steve Beshear maintains strong lead over David Williams, Bluegrass Poll finds

Senate President David Williams has gained little ground in his race against Gov. Steve Beshear, trailing the incumbent by 25 percentage points a week before the election, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA last Friday through Tuesday, found Beshear with 54 percent of the vote and Williams with 29 percent. Independent Gatewood Galbraith, the third candidate in the race, remains at 9 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

Williams, the Republican nominee, has narrowed the gap only slightly since the last Bluegrass Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA in late September, which found Beshear with a 31-point lead. But he still trails by a huge margin that analysts say will be difficult, if not impossible, to overcome with just a few days remaining before next Tuesday’s election.

The Bluegrass poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, meaning that, in theory, Beshear could lead by as many as 33 points or by as few as 16.

“The race is completely over,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “It’s been a joke of a general election. … Here is a classic example of the Republicans picking the wrong person at the wrong time.”

He said Beshear could have long coattails and blamed Williams for being a bad canditate who ran a bad race.

“I’m sure (Republicans) look back with regret on the primary,” he said.

Williams’ campaign said he will continue to work for votes through election day and is hoping for a turnout that will give him the victory.

“We are fighting for every vote in a situation where turnout is extremely fluid,” said Williams’ campaign chairman, Donald Storm. “David and (running mate Richie Farmer) are traveling the state talking to voters about their real plan for real jobs, something Steve Beshear doesn’t have.

“People know in their hearts that Kentucky can do better than Steve Beshear, and we are working hard to turn out the vote.”

Interviews for the poll ended before Williams criticized Beshear Tuesday for participating in a Hindu prayer ceremony last week at a new manufacturing plant site in Elizabethtown. Beshear recruited the company after a trip to India last fall, and the ceremony is traditionally used to mark groundbreakings.

Williams said practioners of the Hindu religion worship “false gods” and that he hopes “their eyes are opened and they receive Jesus Christ as their personal savior, but it’s their business what they do.”

The Beshear campaign said the poll results show that Kentucky voters are turning their backs on Williams because of his record as leader of the state Senate.

“It is clear Kentuckians are rejecting the politics of obstruction and partisanship in favor of Gov. Beshear's efforts to create jobs in every corner of the state and move Kentucky forward,” campaign spokesman Matt Erwin said in a statement.

The Bluegrass Poll found that Beshear, the Democrat, leads in virtually every demographic group — except for Republicans and self-described conservatives and tea-partiers.

In three statewide Bluegrass polls conducted since late July, Williams has never been above 29 percent and Beshear has never been below 52 percent. Galbraith’s percentage of the vote has gone virtually unchanged.

In September, Beshear led Williams 57-26 percent — but that was before a group called Restoring America, funded largely by nearly $3 million contributed by Williams’ father-in-law, began airing television commercials criticizing the governor.

The latest poll shows that Beshear gets more support than Williams from both men and women; people at all income levels; those who have either a high school or college education; and both gun owners and those who don’t own them.

Abortion foes back Beshear by the slightest of margins, while abortion-rights supporters are overwhelmingly behind him, as are moderates and liberals.

Beshear also holds majorities among the most religious portions of the state, with 52 percent of those who go to church every week saying they will vote to re-elect him — a striking statistic, since the more voters go to church, the more likely they are to vote for Republicans.

Sabato said Williams’ problems should have been foreseen when he struggled in the May primary against two Republicans who had virtually no statewide name recognition and very little money.

In that race, Williams got less than 50 percent of the vote and beat Phil Moffett, a Louisville businessman who was his strongest opponent, by just 10 percentage points.

“Primary results really are a tipoff to what’s going to happen in the general election,” Sabato said.

The poll found that despite tough economic times, Beshear still is popular with voters. The survey found that 45 percent said they have a favorable opinion of him, while only 27 percent have a negative view of him.

Williams, on the other hand, was viewed favorably by only 21 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent. The rest were either neutral or had no opinion. That’s a problem his campaign has tried to deal with unsuccessfully for months.

At a campaign stop in Shepherdsville Tuesday, Williams’ wife, Robyn, told voters to overlook their personal feelings about her husband.

“You don’t have to like David Williams, and I’m not asking anybody to marry him. I’ve taken that upon myself,” she said. “I would not give him to anyone else if they wanted him. … You don’t have to like him, I just want you to take a leap of faith.”

Kenny Harris, a 54-year-old truck driver from Todd County and a Democrat, said he looked at the issues and plans to vote for Williams.

He said he’s worried about the economy and believes too many people are taking advantage of government services and choosing not to work because entitlements such as food stamps and welfare are too generous.

“He (Williams) wants to see a new law that requires those receiving government assistance to take drug tests before they receive their benefits,” Harris said. “I just have more faith that David Williams would do something like that.”

But Ursula Bailey, a 54-year-old deputy district court clerk in Jefferson County, said she plans to vote for Beshear.

Bailey said she likes Beshear because he seems “nice. Sometimes politicians have some type of sneakiness about them. He doesn’t.”

At the same time, she said she doesn’t like Williams personally.

“He just looks like a playboy-type guy who’s arrogant,” she said. “He just rubs me the wrong way.”

Editor's note: ABOUT THE POLL

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 28 through Nov. 1 with 576 likely Kentucky voters by SurveyUSA. Twenty-one percent of the likely voters were interviewed on a cellphone by call center employees. Seventy-nine percent were interviewed on a landline phone using the recorded voice of a professional announcer.

The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.

In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.
Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal/WHAS11 is prohibited.

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® conforms to the standards of the National Council on Public Polls.

CN/2's Latest Polling Of "Likely Voters" For Kentucky Statewide Races Shows A Democratic Sweep, But I'll Wait To Read What SURVEYUSA Polling Shows.

Beshear and other Democrats still lead as numbers barely move from Aug., cn|2 Poll shows
by Ryan Alessi

The statewide races remain roughly where they were a month and a half ago, according to the latest cn|2 Poll, with Democratic candidates holding advantages in each race.

Gov. Steve Beshear and running mate Jerry Abramson maintain a 28-point lead over the Republican ticket of David Williams and Richie Farmer, 54 percent to 26 percent, according to the cn|2 Poll taken Oct. 17-19. The independent ticket of Gatewood Galbraith and Dea Riley received 8 percent of respondents’ support, while 12 percent were undecided.

That is nearly identical to the results of the last cn|2 poll taken the last week of August. Each of the tickets picked up less than a point since then, even though this latest poll only surveyed voters who said they were “very likely” to vote on Nov. 8.

The polling from the other races also revealed few differences from a month and a half ago. The minimal change in the races underscores the lack of voter enthusiasm that has led many political analysts, including Secretary of State Elaine Walker, to predict low turnout on Nov. 8.

Only three candidates improved by more than 4 points between the Aug. 28-30 cn|2 Poll and this week’s: Democratic candidate for auditor Adam Edelen jumped 7 points, and Democratic candidate for secretary of state Alison Lundergan Grimes and incumbent Democratic Treasurer Todd Hollenbach both picked up 4 points from their levels of support in August. However, none of the three were polling above 50 percent.

Even though the election is less than three weeks away, the only candidates who have been consistently advertising over the last week have been Beshear, Edelen and Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway.

Braun Research Inc. conducted the cn|2 Poll between Oct. 17 and Oct 19. Live interviewers from Braun surveyed 802 Kentuckians who voted in the 2007 general election or the 2010 general election or both and who said they were “very likely” to vote Nov. 8. Click here to download the crosstabs: Oct 20 poll crosstabs.pdf

The poll has a margin of error of about 3.5 points.

To continue to read more of the story, including particulars on each race, go here.

Check out the poll's cross tabs here.

Editor's note: Some commenter on the site had this to say about the cross tabs:

"The cross tabs look a little democrat heavy… 60% democrat and 35% republican. That isn’t typical in Kentucky races anymore. The 2007 general election had 40% democrat, 36% republican and 22% other. Doesn’t really seem accurate."

So, my question to you all out there is: what do you think?

SurveyUSA Poll: Steve Beshear Widens Lead Over David Williams (57% To 26%), Suggesting (According To Larry Sabato) Democrats May Ride His Coattails!

Steve Beshear widens lead in governor's poll: Other Democrats may ride coattails

Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear has extended his lead to 31 points over Republican Senate President David Williams, with just five weeks left before the Nov. 8 election, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, found that Beshear leads Williams 57 percent to 26 percent among likely Kentucky voters. The third candidate in the governor’s race, independent Gatewood Galbraith, had 8 percent, and 9 percent were undecided.

The poll questioned 569 likely voters Sept. 22-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Beshear led Williams by 24 points in the last Bluegrass Poll, conducted in late July, and the fact that his lead continues to grow has some political observers convinced that his coattails will be long enough to carry most, if not all, of the state’s other Democratic candidates for constitutional offices to victory.

One person who believes Beshear could lead a wave of Democrats is Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, who said polling showing Williams so far behind likely will push down GOP turnout.

“If you’re a Republican and you’re not depressed by these numbers, you must be on Prozac,” he said.

The poll likely was not affected by new anti-Beshear television and radio ads, paid for by an independent political group, because the surveying was almost complete when the ads began running.

Williams' campaign chairman, Donald Storm, noted that not only does the poll not take into account the new ads, it came before news stories that said Beshear is claiming credit for creating jobs that don't yet exist.

“It is no secret that we've been outspent in this campaign by a governor covering up his abysmal record with a barrage of negative, misleading ads,” Storm said in a statement.

“David is going to keep fighting for his plan to eliminate the state's income taxes, enable neighborhood schools in Jefferson County, and get our state budget under control. … We won't stop taking our positive message to the people until the last minute before the polls close in November,” Storm said.

The Beshear campaign’s spokesman, Matt Erwin, responded to the poll's findings by saying, “While the governor is always gratified by the support of Kentuckians, he remains focused on creating jobs in every corner of Kentucky.”
Wide support

The poll found that Beshear led in all demographic groups except among those who said they are conservative, Republican and members of the tea party.

Majorities of men and women support Beshear, as do voters in all age groups. Liberals and moderates back him, as well as people who have graduated college and those who haven’t.

Those who earn less than $40,000 a year are most likely to favor Beshear, but a majority of those who earn more than $40,000 and more than $80,000 support him as well.

Those who favor and those who oppose abortion rights also prefer Beshear, as do those who own guns and those who don’t.

And he gets the backing of voters who go to church regularly, along with those who almost never attend.

Louisville political consultant Danny Briscoe, a Democrat, said the poll’s results are not good for down-ticket Republicans.

“It’s awfully hard to overcome if you’re a Republican,” he said.

At least one candidate is concerned about a bad loss at the top of the ticket affecting other races.

Republican state Rep. James Comer, who is running for agriculture commissioner against Democrat Bob Farmer, said he believes his race is getting enough attention that voters will be educated about their choices. But Comer acknowledged the possibility of a bad night for Republicans.

“I worry about straight-ticket voting,” Comer said.

David Ray, campaign manager for Republican attorney general nominee Todd P’Pool, said he doesn’t have time to focus on the governor’s race and doesn’t believe that it will affect P’Pool’s chances of unseating Democratic incumbent Jack Conway.

“I think the voters of Kentucky are discerning,” he said. “I think they judge all the races and all the candidates on their merits, and I trust their judgment.”

Sabato, however, said that may be wishful thinking.

“There’s got to be coattails,” he said. “If (Beshear gets 55 percent), that’s the definition of a landslide. Usually, you do have significant coattails at that point.”

Dede Ralston, a 62-year-old retired Delta Airlines flight attendant who lives in Park Hills, is among those who will vote to give Beshear and all the Democrats landslide victories.

“The Republicans in Kentucky are just too conservative,” said Ralston, who responded to the poll and agreed to a follow-up interview.

Ralston said she considers herself a moderate and won’t vote for candidates she considers too liberal either. “I used to live in Chicago and I wouldn’t vote for the Democrats there.”

Likewise, Terry Rowe, a 47-year-old heating and air-conditioning technician from Louisville, said he would vote for Beshear and probably all the other Democrats this year.

“I like what (Beshear) has done for the state, and I like Jerry Abramson,” said Rowe, referring to Beshear’s running mate and former mayor of Louisville.

Furthermore, he said, he doesn’t know everyone else on the ballot, so his votes will likely go to one party.

“This year I just like the Democrats better,” he said.
In Williams' camp

But Joneda Stuedle, 48, of Walton, said she’ll vote for Williams because “I think we need a change.”

She thinks Beshear should have done more to bring jobs to Kentucky and to reduce the cost of health care “so people don’t have to rob Peter to pay Paul to afford it.”

Stuedle, who takes care of her disabled mother, said she plans to vote a straight GOP ticket because “I generally vote for Republicans.”

The poll found that Williams’ biggest problem is that many voters don’t really like him.

More than twice as many people said they had an unfavorable impression of him as those who said they viewed him favorably, 38-17 percent. Forty-four percent said they had a neutral opinion of him or no opinion at all.

The poll also found that only 30 percent of Republican voters said they had a favorable opinion of Williams.

Williams’ worst favorability numbers came in the Louisville region, where 45 percent of likely voters said they had unfavorable opinions of him. SurveyUSA defines the Louisville region as a 14-county area running from Jefferson to Taylor.

Fifty-one 51 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of Beshear, with 20 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion. Sixty-eight percent of Democrats said they had favorable views of Beshear.

Editor's note:

ABOUT THE POLL

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 22-27 with 569 likely Kentucky voters by SurveyUSA. Twenty-five percent of the adult respondents were interviewed on a cellphone by call center employees. Seventy-five percent of the adult respondents were interviewed on a landline phone. Of the landline respondents, two-thirds were interviewed using recorded voice and one-third were interviewed by call center employees.

The margin of error of the poll was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. In theory, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error in one direction or the other had the entire universe of respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.

In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.

Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal/WHAS11 is prohibited.

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® conforms to the standards of the National Council on Public Polls.

Poll: POTUS Barack Obama Not Swaying Key Independent Voters Like Me, Almost Tied With SILLY Sarah Palin. SAD, ABSOLUTELY Sad!

Poll finds Obama losing ground to Republicans
Obama not swaying key independent voters
By STEVEN THOMMA

WASHINGTON -- Look out President Barack Obama. Even Sarah Palin's gaining on you.

A new McClatchy-Marist poll finds that Obama looks increasingly vulnerable in next year's election, with a majority of voters believing he'll lose to any Republican, a solid plurality saying they'll definitely vote against him and most potential Republican challengers gaining on him.

Even in potential matchups where he leads, Obama in most cases has lost ground to the Republican.

The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn't yet announced whether she'll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround.

Overall, the gains among Republicans "speak to Obama's decline among independents generally, and how the middle is not his right now," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the national survey.

"This will require him to find ways to either win back the middle or energize his base in ways that hasn't happened so farm" Miringoff said

By a margin of 49 percent to 36 percent, voters said they definitely plan to vote against Obama, according to the poll. Independents by 53 percent to 28 percent said they definitely plan to vote against him.

With that sentiment permeating the electorate a little more than a year before the general election, most Americans think Obama won't win a second term.

By 52 percent to 38 percent, voters think he'll lose to the Republican nominee, whoever that is. Even among Democrats, 31 percent think the Republican nominee will win.

The poll comes as the Republican candidates head to Orlando, Fla., for another debate on Thursday night, their second in the battleground state in 10 days.

Gov. Rick Perry of Texas continues to lead the field of announced candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, supported by 30 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. He was followed by former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts with 22 percent and Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota with 12 percent.

Others trailed in single digits: Rep. Ron Paul of Texas had 7 percent; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had 6 percent; business executive Herman Cain had 5 percent, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania had 2 percent, and former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah had 1 percent.

Two potential candidates - Palin and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani - would trail Perry but jump into the top tier along with Romney and Bachmann, the survey found.

The field lines up differently, though, when matched against Obama.

While most of the Republicans have gained on Obama, he still leads all of the announced candidates.

"His saving grace right now has to do with fact that the GOP field has not yet demonstrated the appeal to capitalize on his weaknesses," said Miringoff.

Giuliani would do the best against the president, leading Obama by 49 percent to 42 percent. He trailed by 5 points in an August poll, and by 7 in June.

Obama is neck and neck with Romney, leading by 46-44. Obama had led by 5 points in August, 4 points in June, and 1 point in April. Romney now leads among independents, 44 percent to 40 percent.

Obama leads Perry by 50 percent to 41 percent. They split independents 43-43. Obama had led Perry by 19 points in August, as Perry was joining the campaign.

Obama leads Bachmann 53 percent to 40 percent. He had led her by 17 points in August, by 12 points in June.

Obama leads Palin by 49 percent to 44 percent. He led in August by 21 points, in June by 26 points, and in April by 22 points.

Despite the suggestion that Giuliani would be the party's strongest general election candidate, and that Palin would be much stronger than earlier believed, Republicans do not want them to get into the race.

By 72 percent to 24 percent, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do not want Palin to run for president in 2012. Even among tea party supporters - a group that likes Palin - 68 percent do not want her to run.

And by 58 percent to 32 percent, Republican voters do not want Giuliani, who ran and lost in 2008, to run in 2012.

METHODOLOGY

This survey of 1,042 adults was conducted on Sept. 13-14. Adults 18 and older residing in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. There are 825 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There are 317 Republicans and Republican leaning independents. The results for this subset are statistically significant within plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/20/v-fullstory/2417008/poll-finds-obama-losing-ground.html#ixzz1YatBVUD9

More Public Policy Polling (PPP) Finds "[Rand] Paul, [Mitch] McConnell, Tea Party Disliked In Kentucky.

Paul, McConnell, Tea Party disliked in KY

Header-poll-results

Raleigh, N.C. – New Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was never very popular to begin with, and voters are now split slightly against him. Despite beating Jack Conway by 11 points last fall, most of that had to do with Conway’s far greater unpopularity by the end of that campaign. Paul was seen favorably by 48% when PPP last polled the state late last October, and unfavorably by 43%. Now, only 42% approve and 44% disapprove of his job performance, exactly where his senior colleague Mitch McConnell was just before last fall’s election.

But McConnell has taken a severe hit in the interim, with only 37% approving and half disapproving, making him the fifth least popular of 87 senators on which PPP has polled. Paul is tied for 14th worst. Paul also has slightly better numbers than the Tea Party he embraces, which is seen positively by 40% and negatively by 46%, 28-39 among independents.

If the time for same-sex marriage has not yet come, Americans pretty much everywhere are in favor of civil unions granting the same legal rights as marriage, if not the name. Even in socially conservative Kentucky, where 62% oppose gay marriage and only 26% support it, 51% favor at least civil unions, with only 46% wanting no legal recognition of gay couples’ relationships at all. That includes 63% of independents, 56% of Democrats, and even 37% of Republicans. That is up 27 points from Republicans’ support for marriage alone, 29 points for independents, and 21 points for Democrats.

There has been some controversy, mostly from the left, over Gov. Steve Beshear approving state funds to build the Ark Encounter, a theme park featuring a life-sized replica of Noah’s Ark. But 59% of the state’s voters oppose their tax dollars going toward the park, and only 26% support it. Independents are most opposed, 17-72, joining Democrats (23-62) and even Republicans (34-51).

PPP surveyed 600 likely Kentucky voters from August 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell's job performance?
Approve ................. .37%
Disapprove............. .50%
Not sure ................. .13%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand
Paul's job performance?
Approve ................. .42%
Disapprove............. .44%
Not sure ................. .14%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Tea Party?
Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q4 If there was an election for the legislature
today, generally speaking, do you think you
would vote for the Democratic or Republican
candidate from your district?
Democrat ........................................................ 44%
Republican...................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q5 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal............................................................... 26%
Illegal .............................................................. 62%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q6 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ..............................................................21%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry .......................................30%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple's relationship .......................................46%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q7 Do you support or oppose taxpayer funds
going to build the Ark Encounter, a theme park
featuring a life-sized replica of Noah’s Ark?
Support taxpayer funds going toward it........... 26%
Oppose it ........................................................ 59%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q8 Is your favorite NFL team the Chicago Bears,
Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Green
Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh
Steelers, St. Louis Rams, or Tennessee
Titans?
Bears .............................................................. 6%
Bengals........................................................... 15%
Cowboys......................................................... 8%
Packers........................................................... 7%
Colts ............................................................... 16%
Steelers........................................................... 8%
Rams .............................................................. 1%
Titans.............................................................. 9%
Someone else/Not a football fan..................... 30%

Q9 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, New
York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis
Cardinals, or someone else?
Braves ............................................................ 8%
Red Sox.......................................................... 6%
Cubs ............................................................... 6%
Reds ............................................................... 36%
Indians ............................................................ 2%
Yankees .......................................................... 7%
Pirates ............................................................ 1%
Cardinals......................................................... 10%
Someone else/Not a baseball fan ................... 25%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 48%
Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 8%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 8%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 28%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 54%
Man................................................................. 46%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 55%
Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent/Other.......................................... 9%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. IfAfrican American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 90%
African American............................................. 6%
Other............................................................... 4%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 13%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 38%
Older than 65.................................................. 27%

Andy Hightower Has Done A Good Job Analyzing The Recent Public Policy Polling On Kentucky Races. Check It Out.

What the Recent Poll Tells Us About the Statewide Races

If you haven't seen it yet, Public Policy Polling, a fairly accurate Democratic polling firm, released the results from a poll conducted from August 25th to August 28th.

Here are the quick results:
Race Dem Rep Other Und.
Governor /
Lt. Governor 55% Beshear 28% Williams 10% Galbraith (I) 8%
Attorney General 47% Conway 36% P'Pool 18%
Secretary of State 38% Grimes 35% Johnson 26%
Auditor 34% Edelen 31% Kemper 35%
Treasurer 43% Hollenbach 28% Crosbie 16% Moellman (L) 14%
Agriculture 36% Farmer 37% Comer 27%
Biases in the poll

First we should note an obvious bias of the poll. One questions asked was "Who did you vote for President in 2008?" which resulted in 48% for McCain and 44% for Obama. McCain actually defeated Obama in Kentucky 57% to 41%, a 13-point swing from these numbers, so we suggest that all of the Dems should be knocked a few points and you should probably add a few points to the conservatives.

Another obvious bias in the polling is the omission of a question about Steve Beshear's favorability. By phrasing the question regarding Steve Beshear ("Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance?") it is in no way comparable to the much tougher question asked of the other candidates ("Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of" Candidate X?). They are not the same question and should not be compared, although the poll uses them to imply that Beshear is "headed to a reelection romp". It may be true, but it is not supported by comparing the results of these two uneven questions.
The Governor's Race

There is no other take-away from these results than that Williams has a tough climb ahead. Polling at less than 30%, he has two months to consolidate his base and make a compelling case to Kentucky voters that any contentment with Beshear as governor is misplaced. While Kentucky's economy and the resulting voter discontentment are clearly on his side, it seems he struggles to break out of his more traditional circles and recruit new blood to his cause. He also faces the challenge of Beshear's slickness - despite clear improprieties in his office, forcing state workers to give to his campaign, spending thousands of taxpayer dollars on legislatively rejected contracts and plenty of other substantial problems with his tenure - few in Kentucky's dwindling media find it important to hold him accountable. It is a challenge answered only by expenditures from the Williams and Galbraith campaigns. While Williams has some funding, he recently stated that "This mudslinging that they are already involved in and all these negative ads, I'm going to avoid that type of thing."

If Williams isn't telling Kentuckians about Beshear's shortcomings and scandals, no one will.

The Attorney General Race

The Attorney General's race will be a contest. Incumbent Jack Conway has nearly universal name ID, and only receives 47% support in this left-leaning poll. There are no new facts about Jack Conway that will suddenly convince Kentuckians that they actually like him. Meanwhile, Todd P'Pool still has to introduce himself. While a majority of Kentuckians are considering voting against Conway, they do not yet know the Hopkins County attorney running against him. P'Pool is already up with his second ad of the campaign, and will likely be on air until the election. He has the resources to run an effective campaign, and it will likely close the current gap.

Secretary of State and Auditor

These two races are together because they break out similarly. Both Republican challengers, Johnson and Kemper, are in a statistical tie with their opponents. All four candidates for these open seats are still unknown to a large portion of voters. Unfortunately, Johnson and Kemper share the same disadvantages going forward. First, Beshear's lead will help the Democrats in these races as voters are more likely to follow the ticket down ballot in races that they don't know the candidates. Additionally, the Democrats, Grimes and Edelen, are well-funded which will allow them to more easily build their name-ID and familiarity prior to the election. While this poll is great news about the current landscape for Johnson and Kemper, they must use this news to leverage support for the coming media campaign. It will be a challenge for Johnson and Kemper to keep up.

Treasurer

For Hollenbach, an incumbent with dynastic name ID, this poll shows that he is easily beatable. The question is only whether Crosbie and Moellman will split the vote in such a way that allows Hollenbach to be reelected with a mediocre plurality. Crosbie has the funding to mount a competitive campaign and will likely tighten this race.

Agriculture Commissioner

James Comer is the only Republican candidate with a lead in this poll. He is well funded and has the strong backing of the agriculture community. He has to fight against the same sort of inertia mentioned above that challenges other Republican candidates, but Comer is likely to prevail.

Sen. Jack Westwood Will Retire

We are reprinting this from our blog.

CN2 has reported that Republican Senator Jack Westwood announced that he does not intend to seek reelection in 2012, creating an open seat in the Kentucky Senate that is likely to remain Republican.

The 23rd Senate district overlaps several Republican members of the House of Representatives, who have pledged not to run against one another.
The 23rd Senate District currently includes three state representatives, who could be potential candidates to replace Westwood.

Republican Reps. Alecia Webb-Edgington of Fort Wright and Adam Koenig of Erlanger live in the district as does Democratic Rep. Arnold Simpson of Covington.
Both Webb-Edgington and Koenig indicated interest in the race but hinted that they wouldn't run against each other in a Republican primary.
"I'm not going to close the door to anything at this juncture," Webb-Edgington said. "But we're not looking to have any bloody primaries among Republicans."
Koenig said the Senate seat "is something I'm going to look at."
"But I'm pretty darn happy in the House. I'd like to be part of the first group of Republican majority in the House since 1920," he said.

Sen. Westwood has bounced around in the top portion of our Senate Scorecards, ranking as high as 4th and as low as 11th and generally scoring around 60 (a minimum score of 70 is required to be considered 'acceptable').
Of the two replacements mentioned, Rep. Adam Koenig has the much better record for taxpayers. While he has faced primary opposition from the right in the past, his ranking has risen from 11th in 2008 and 2009 to 3rd in 2010 with an 'acceptable' score of 73.

Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington is considered a rising star in the Republican party, but has disappointed on our scorecard, never reaching the threshold score of '70' and only receiving a '53' in 2010.
While they may agree not to primary one another, we would not be surprised to see other candidates arise to challenge for the seat from an area of the state with strong conservative activists.

Best Regards,

Andy Hightower

For Whatever it's Worth, Michele Backmann Edges Ron Paul (Second Place) To Win Iowa Straw Poll, With Third Place Going To Tim Pawlenty. I STILL Say Rick Perry Is The Man To Watch.

Follow this link to read more.

New Bluegrass Poll Finds Steve Beshear At 52%, David Williams At 28%, Undecideds At 11%, And Gatewood Galbraith At 9%!

Gov. Steve Beshear holds a commanding 24-point lead over his challenger, Senate President David Williams, in Kentucky's governor's race, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll found that Beshear leads Williams 52 percent to 28 percent and that the incumbent governor is ahead in all but three demographic areas. Independent Gatewood Galbraith is a distant third with 9 percent of the vote.

Conducted by SurveyUSA, the poll is based on computerized and live telephone interviews carried out from July 22– to 27. It includes the responses of 512 likely voters in the Nov. 8 governor's race and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Among Williams' problems, the poll found that more than a third of the voters don't like him, while Beshear remains in good standing with nearly half of the voters despite a sluggish economy.

Thirty-six percent of voters said they hold an unfavorable opinion of Williams, a Republican who has been a polarizing leader of the state Senate since 2001, while only 21 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him. Twenty percent said they had a neutral opinion, and another 18 percent said they didn't know what they thought about him.

Meanwhile, Beshear, a Democrat, is viewed favorably by 48 percent of voters and unfavorably by 21 percent. Twenty-two percent said they were neutral, while another 9 percent said they didn't know what they thought of him.

Beshear's campaign refused to comment on the poll's findings, other than when Democratic Party spokesman Matt Erwin said, “While the governor is always gratified by the support of Kentuckians, he remains focused on creating jobs in every corner of Kentucky.”

The Williams campaign expressed optimism that as voters learn more about Beshear and his record, they will turn to Williams.

“Beshear has a terrible record on jobs. He and (his running mate Jerry Abramson) are not pro-life,” said Williams campaign manager Luke Marchant. “They both openly endorse Obama's dramatically unpopular health care plan and war on Kentucky coal.”

Marchant said, “David will stand up for conservative values on all of those issues, and he has a real plan to create jobs. Steve Beshear is content to tread water and tow Obama's line.”

According to the poll, both men and women support Beshear, although women were more likely than men to do so. People of all age groups said they were more likely to back the incumbent, as were both black and white voters.

Both people reached on land lines and those reached on their cellphones also were more likely to vote for Beshear.

It didn't matter how often respondents went to church, whether they backed abortion rights or if they owned guns — they all said they would vote for Beshear, the poll found. He holds the lead in all regions of the state, among all income groups and among those who have or don't have college degrees.

The only areas in which Williams leads is among Republicans, conservatives and tea party members. And the lead among conservatives was less than a majority — 45 percent to 33 percent.

Among independents, Galbraith is second, behind Beshear, with 32 percent of the vote. Beshear got 34 percent among independents, and Williams got 11 percent. Galbraith also polled better than Williams with liberals.

Elizabeth Isaacs, a Republican from Madison County who was polled and agreed to a follow-up interview, said she plans to vote for Beshear in November, not because of policy but because she just doesn't like Williams. She said she has friends who know Williams who tell her “he's just not a nice man.”

“It's sad to say, but it doesn't matter where you stand on the issues if nobody likes you,” said the 31-year-old stay-at-home mom. “Even if I agreed with everything (Williams and his running mate, Richie Farmer) said, because of the likeability issue, I couldn't bring myself to cast a vote in their favor.”

Isaacs said she has met Beshear and his wife, Jane, and found them to be “personable and really patient.”

And would she vote for Galbraith? “Bless his heart,” she said. “I just couldn't bring myself to do that.”

John Watrous, 35, an environmental consultant and a Democrat from Louisville, said he plans to vote for Beshear. “Primarily because he's out of the Democratic Party,” he said. “But I think he's done a good job with his budget, and because of that, Kentucky is in better economic condition than other states.”

Watrous said he believes Beshear has taken a more measured approach to cutting the budget “rather than drastic or heavy-handed,” which is how he thinks Williams would handle it.

John Miles, 53, a Republican from Corbin, said he plans to vote for Williams because he doesn't like what Beshear has done since he was elected.

“Unemployment, he raised taxes out the wazoo on cigarettes; road work is still crap in this state,” he said. “Give me one instance where he has improved this state. We still lack in education, we still lack in health care.”

Miles, who said he considers himself a member of the tea party, isn't thrilled with Williams either, but he said the Senate president is the lesser of the evils.

Political analysts say Williams' poor showing in the poll indicates that he needs to introduce himself to voters and give them a reason not to vote for Beshear — both of which will cost lots of money, potentially more than Williams will have at his disposal.

“It means it will probably be a very negative fall,” said Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe, who is helping Republican KC Crosbie in the state treasurer's race. “Williams will be forced to run a very strong attack-oriented campaign.”

Republican Ted Jackson, who ran Larry Forgy's gubernatorial campaign in 1995, said there is little positive that Williams can take away from the poll results. He said Williams must associate Beshear with President Barack Obama, who remains unpopular with Kentucky voters.

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Williams may not have the money now to change voter opinion and that poll results like these could make it more difficult to raise money in the future.

In June, Beshear said his campaign had $2.7 million on hand, while Williams had only $89,363.

According to the analysts, a minor bright spot for Williams is that a significant percentage of voters don't know who he is and therefore haven't formed an opinion of him.

“He's got a hard name ID of 57 (percent) so he's unknown to a lot of people,” Duffy said. “It's a problem and a bit of an opportunity. … It does give him some room to grow, but the bad news is … voters don't seem to like him.”

All three experts believe that the poll says more about Williams than Beshear.

“I think Beshear actually achieved this by taking almost no risks whatsoever,” Duffy said. “That's gotten him those numbers, but nobody will say he was an aggressive governor that changed things.”