Robert Novak: Kentucky Governor's race is a "Likely Democratic Takeover".
Syndicated Columnist and Political Commentator, Robert Novak, has a new outlook on Kentucky's Governor's race. Here is his opinion, in its entirety:
Kentucky Governor: Republicans may now be regretting their decision to renominate Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), as his campaign looks to be in dire straits. Fletcher consistently trails in polls by more than 15 percent, and his job approval in a recent poll was at 37 percent.
Fletcher's ethical problems (he was indicted for illegal hiring practices, and he pardoned nine of his indicted staffers) have demolished his public image, and he's not getting much help from his party or his business base, either. Since coming to Lexington in the 2003 election, Fletcher has not gotten along well with Republican lawmakers or with the party's political operatives—hence the spirited primary challenge from former Rep. Anne Northup (R). By defeating Northup handily in the primary, Fletcher showed he still is popular among the GOP electorate, but few of his erstwhile rivals have rallied behind him the general election. One Northup backer told the Kentucky media, "It would seem the election is merely a formality at this point."
This prospective gubernatorial blowout causes some concern among the commonwealth's Republicans looking ahead to the defense of U.S. Senate seats in 2008 and 2010. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is on the Democrats' hit list in 2008, and Sen. Jim Bunning (R), who barely won in 2004, would be vulnerable in 2010 if he decided to run again. Physician Daniel Mongiardo (D), Bunning's 2004 opponent, is Beshear's running mate and will likely be the lieutenant governor in 2010.
Kentucky is another in a long list of states for the GOP to worry about, and this governor race punctuates that point. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Any thoughts?
Kentucky Governor: Republicans may now be regretting their decision to renominate Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), as his campaign looks to be in dire straits. Fletcher consistently trails in polls by more than 15 percent, and his job approval in a recent poll was at 37 percent.
Fletcher's ethical problems (he was indicted for illegal hiring practices, and he pardoned nine of his indicted staffers) have demolished his public image, and he's not getting much help from his party or his business base, either. Since coming to Lexington in the 2003 election, Fletcher has not gotten along well with Republican lawmakers or with the party's political operatives—hence the spirited primary challenge from former Rep. Anne Northup (R). By defeating Northup handily in the primary, Fletcher showed he still is popular among the GOP electorate, but few of his erstwhile rivals have rallied behind him the general election. One Northup backer told the Kentucky media, "It would seem the election is merely a formality at this point."
This prospective gubernatorial blowout causes some concern among the commonwealth's Republicans looking ahead to the defense of U.S. Senate seats in 2008 and 2010. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is on the Democrats' hit list in 2008, and Sen. Jim Bunning (R), who barely won in 2004, would be vulnerable in 2010 if he decided to run again. Physician Daniel Mongiardo (D), Bunning's 2004 opponent, is Beshear's running mate and will likely be the lieutenant governor in 2010.
Kentucky is another in a long list of states for the GOP to worry about, and this governor race punctuates that point. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Any thoughts?
Labels: Democratism, Kentucky politics, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 6:39 PM
3 Comments:
Novak's political acumen is legendary, and even journalistic colleagues who dislike his supply-side and isolationist ideologies admire his work ethic. I wonder if he, having spent fifty years now in Washington as celebrated in his recent memoirs, has forgotten the capitol of KY in his old age.
He is absolutely correct that Fletcher's problems go even deeper than the hiring controversies, to the fact he was for some reason unable to maintain good relations with the existing power structure in the GOP base.
On a broader scale, I think Novak's justifiable concern about the health of the GOP nationwide comes through in this piece. Republicans may be a long time in the wilderness, until Democrat overzealousness and/or an economic crisis allow them back into the game.
Novak, as are others, are in for a rude awakening. Novak relies on the MSM for his news. The Kentucky Central story is going to get bigger, quick. One insider used the term "nuclear" to describe what is coming. Some attorneys have gone to jail for the things that Beshear's firm did to Kentucky Central. Expect the name Grahm to also be prominent.
9:41, more likely scenario is that too many voters won't care at this late stage.
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