On Electability Issue, It's Strike Three For Hillary BILLARY Clinton.

Read the Houston Chronicle.

Here are excerpts:

The crux of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s argument regarding her "electability" has been two-fold. One is that she is the only candidate who can beat John McCain, based on their assessment of electoral votes needed to win the election, and the other is that without the support of white, middle-class, male voters Obama can’t win in November.

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First the Electoral vote issue. Here is an interesting map I found on Politico showing the projections on May 28, 2004, exactly at the same point from that election as we now are from the 2008 election.

Editor's note: Map showed John Kerry leading President Bush 327 to 211 (guess who became president? I'll give you a hint: it was NOT John Kerry!)

Sorry Bill and Hillary, your argument doesn’t hold up. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Just don’t inhale.

Now on to the white male myth. An article in Salon quotes from an editorial by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, which points out that losing the white male vote is not nearly as important a factor as is the margin by which that vote is lost. Mellman:

"Mr. Gore lost them by 17 percentage points while winning the national popular vote. Mr. Kerry lost them by 23 points and the country by fewer than two and a half points," Mellman says, going on to observe that, in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, in the disputed demographic Obama trails presumptive Republican nominee John McCain by just 2 points. Another poll, Mellman says, has him down 7, but even that means he's running well ahead of Gore and Kerry."

Now to putting polls in May in proper perspective to their relevance to an election in November. Since Hillary likes to use 1992 as an example, let’s look at the polls 5 months out from that election. From an article in National Journal:

"At this point in 1992, six different national polls (found in the archives of The Hotline) showed Bill Clinton running third behind both George Bush and Ross Perot. Clinton received an average of 26 percent of the vote in late May and early June. He was elected president five months later with 43 percent of the popular vote."

As to the Democratic voters who say they will vote for McCain if Obama is nominated, the article point out that these remarks are most likely made in the heat of battle and uses this analogy:

"Asking Clinton supporters whether they'd pick Obama in the fall is like asking a couple in the middle of a divorce whether they think they'll be friends next week. This question will be much more relevant after the summer is over and everyone's had a chance to, as Bill Clinton would say, "chill out."

Strike three, you’re out. Take a seat on the bench, better luck next time.

Comment: It's strike three, indeed.