For G.O.P., Tea Party Wields A Double-Edged Sword.
For G.O.P., Tea Party Wields a Double-Edged Sword
By KATE ZERNIKE
Christine O’Donnell, running in Delaware to be the Republican nominee for the Senate seat once held by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., is a perennial candidate with a history of financial problems, including unpaid taxes and a home in foreclosure. Representative Michael N. Castle, her opponent in the primary, is a veteran congressman and former governor who has won statewide elections more than 10 times.
But Ms. O’Donnell has the backing of the Tea Party, and suddenly Delaware has become the latest Republican civil war battlefield. National Tea Party groups are pouring money into Ms. O’Donnell’s campaign, while establishment Republicans are attacking her with more ferocity than they have shown toward the Democrat in the race, worried that Ms. O’Donnell is the bigger threat to the party’s winning the seat in November.
The battle in Delaware is just the latest reminder that as much as the Tea Party fervor is expected to help Republicans in November, it may also create problems for them — and opportunities for the Democrats.
So far this election season, the Tea Party has brought a huge amount of unexpected energy into the campaign, and that fervor could drive sufficient Republican turnout to become a major and perhaps decisive factor in many races. But the movement has also forced Republicans to spend precious time and money on primary races they should have won easily and has produced some inexperienced candidates who have stumbled in the early going.
In some House races, Republicans have all but given up hope of winning after local Tea Party groups helped conservative candidates win primaries in districts that historically prefer moderates. And in some districts, Tea Party candidates are mounting third-party challenges that could allow the Democrats to maintain or even win some seats.
“When we talk about what kind of an impact the Tea Party is going to have on the midterms, what I’m watching are these seats where the Tea Party has nominated candidates over more viable Republican candidates — that’s my measuring stick,” said Jennifer Duffy, who watches Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “It could be the difference between getting the majority or not.”
Of the 18 Senate races that The New York Times considers competitive, there are 11 where the Tea Party stands to be a significant factor. While it is harder to predict the Tea Party’s influence in the House races, given the diffuse nature of thousands of local groups across the country, there are at least 48 out of 104 competitive seats where it could have a major impact.
In many places, the impact will be from Tea Party groups — local, national or both — that are working to mobilize voters. In others, however, the Tea Party is complicating what should have been easy Republican primary victories.
In the Eighth Congressional District in Arizona, for instance, a seat held comfortably by Republicans until 2006, Democrats had worried that their incumbent, Representative Gabrielle Giffords, would lose. They rejoiced when the Tea Party candidate, Jesse Kelly, beat Jonathan Paton, who had been backed by Republicans in Washington.
In the 10th Congressional District in Illinois, the Tea Party may have created a rare opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat, helping Robert Dold win against a more moderate Republican in the primary. The seat is now held by Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican who is running for the Senate seat vacated by President Obama. Democrats believe they can portray Mr. Dold as too conservative for the district.
With the economy still working against Democrats, they say they are hoping to benefit from concerns about Tea Party extremism.
Allen West, for example, the Republican nominee in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, has become a Tea Party sensation. He has raised more money than any other House challenger — and his opponent — collecting donations from people across the country who have followed him on YouTube as he thunders against the “tyranny” of the federal government.
But to Democrats, he is an opposition researcher’s dream, captured on video rallying his audiences to “get your musket, fix your bayonet,” questioning whether Mr. Obama is a citizen and urging his supporters to make his opponent “scared to come out of his house.”
Democrats said they were trying to make the same case against Tea Party candidates who are the Republican nominees in Senate races: Rand Paul in Kentucky, Sharron Angle in Nevada, Ken Buck in Colorado and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. (The candidates the Tea Party helped nominate in Utah, Mike Lee, and Alaska, Joe Miller, are considered all but certain to win — even in a year when uncertainty is the rule.)
The Democrats are playing up the candidates’ support for things that are standard Tea Party positions, but unpopular among most Americans: getting rid of the Departments of Energy, Commerce and Education; phasing out Social Security and Medicare; and instituting a 23 percent national sales tax to replace the income tax.
The arguments seem to be gaining the most traction in Kentucky and Nevada, where the nominations of Tea Party candidates have helped keep Democrats in the running — particularly Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader, who is considered among the most vulnerable incumbents. In Kentucky, the Democrat, Jack Conway, gained the support of the state’s police union last month after raising concerns about Mr. Paul’s opposition to federal antidrug efforts, a position unpopular among rural voters whose communities have been ravaged by methamphetamine.
All of those Senate races are close. And Republicans and, increasingly, independent analysts believe that the Tea Party candidates can prevail.
Delaware is a different story. Republicans, though they backed Ms. O’Donnell when she ran against Mr. Biden for the Senate, say she is unelectable, and in recent days they have attacked her for “repeatedly lying to voters” and “manipulating her own political history.” They said they had considered Mr. Castle a shoo-in until Mr. Miller defeated Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary in Alaska.
The Tea Party Express, a national group that helped secure Mr. Miller the nomination and helped Senator Scott Brown win in Massachusetts, then said it would spend $250,000 on television and radio advertisements for Ms. O’Donnell in advance of the primary Sept. 14.
Other trouble spots for Republicans are Tea Party-backed candidates mounting third-party challenges in several close House races. These include the Fifth and Second Congressional Districts in Virginia, where Republicans had controlled the seats until the last couple of years and had hopes of taking them back.
In Florida’s 12th Congressional District, where the seat is being vacated by a Republican, independent handicappers say that Randy Wilkinson, who registered to run on an official Tea Party line, could take a sizable chunk of voters from the Republican, handing the election to the Democrat, Lori Edwards.
And In New York’s 23rd Congressional District, Tea Party groups are backing Doug Hoffman, who created trouble for Republicans in a special election last year by mounting a challenge to the moderate Republican nominee, ultimately pushing her to quit the race. She threw her support to the Democrat, Bill Owens, and he won the district despite Republicans having controlled it for 150 years.
This year, Mr. Hoffman has said that if he does not win the Sept. 14 primary against Matt Doheny, who has the support of establishment Republicans, he will run as a third-party candidate again. And many Tea Party activists are supporting his bid even though they understand that this would probably result in the seat’s remaining in Democratic hands.
“Sometimes being principled doesn’t always get you what you want,” said Jennifer Bernstone, an activist who supported Mr. Hoffman last year and does again. “That’s part of being principled.”
But analysts say third-party candidates will affect 10 House races, at best, in a year when 100 are competitive. And Republican strategists say it is wishful thinking on the Democrats’ part to hope that they can combat Tea Party enthusiasm with concerns about Tea Party extremism.
“Enthusiasm in an off year is absolutely critical,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “I’m not disagreeing that there are places where the nontraditional Republican nominee may face a greater challenge than would a traditional Republican nominee, but I do not agree that ergo the Democrat is going to win.”
By KATE ZERNIKE
Christine O’Donnell, running in Delaware to be the Republican nominee for the Senate seat once held by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., is a perennial candidate with a history of financial problems, including unpaid taxes and a home in foreclosure. Representative Michael N. Castle, her opponent in the primary, is a veteran congressman and former governor who has won statewide elections more than 10 times.
But Ms. O’Donnell has the backing of the Tea Party, and suddenly Delaware has become the latest Republican civil war battlefield. National Tea Party groups are pouring money into Ms. O’Donnell’s campaign, while establishment Republicans are attacking her with more ferocity than they have shown toward the Democrat in the race, worried that Ms. O’Donnell is the bigger threat to the party’s winning the seat in November.
The battle in Delaware is just the latest reminder that as much as the Tea Party fervor is expected to help Republicans in November, it may also create problems for them — and opportunities for the Democrats.
So far this election season, the Tea Party has brought a huge amount of unexpected energy into the campaign, and that fervor could drive sufficient Republican turnout to become a major and perhaps decisive factor in many races. But the movement has also forced Republicans to spend precious time and money on primary races they should have won easily and has produced some inexperienced candidates who have stumbled in the early going.
In some House races, Republicans have all but given up hope of winning after local Tea Party groups helped conservative candidates win primaries in districts that historically prefer moderates. And in some districts, Tea Party candidates are mounting third-party challenges that could allow the Democrats to maintain or even win some seats.
“When we talk about what kind of an impact the Tea Party is going to have on the midterms, what I’m watching are these seats where the Tea Party has nominated candidates over more viable Republican candidates — that’s my measuring stick,” said Jennifer Duffy, who watches Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “It could be the difference between getting the majority or not.”
Of the 18 Senate races that The New York Times considers competitive, there are 11 where the Tea Party stands to be a significant factor. While it is harder to predict the Tea Party’s influence in the House races, given the diffuse nature of thousands of local groups across the country, there are at least 48 out of 104 competitive seats where it could have a major impact.
In many places, the impact will be from Tea Party groups — local, national or both — that are working to mobilize voters. In others, however, the Tea Party is complicating what should have been easy Republican primary victories.
In the Eighth Congressional District in Arizona, for instance, a seat held comfortably by Republicans until 2006, Democrats had worried that their incumbent, Representative Gabrielle Giffords, would lose. They rejoiced when the Tea Party candidate, Jesse Kelly, beat Jonathan Paton, who had been backed by Republicans in Washington.
In the 10th Congressional District in Illinois, the Tea Party may have created a rare opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat, helping Robert Dold win against a more moderate Republican in the primary. The seat is now held by Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican who is running for the Senate seat vacated by President Obama. Democrats believe they can portray Mr. Dold as too conservative for the district.
With the economy still working against Democrats, they say they are hoping to benefit from concerns about Tea Party extremism.
Allen West, for example, the Republican nominee in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, has become a Tea Party sensation. He has raised more money than any other House challenger — and his opponent — collecting donations from people across the country who have followed him on YouTube as he thunders against the “tyranny” of the federal government.
But to Democrats, he is an opposition researcher’s dream, captured on video rallying his audiences to “get your musket, fix your bayonet,” questioning whether Mr. Obama is a citizen and urging his supporters to make his opponent “scared to come out of his house.”
Democrats said they were trying to make the same case against Tea Party candidates who are the Republican nominees in Senate races: Rand Paul in Kentucky, Sharron Angle in Nevada, Ken Buck in Colorado and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. (The candidates the Tea Party helped nominate in Utah, Mike Lee, and Alaska, Joe Miller, are considered all but certain to win — even in a year when uncertainty is the rule.)
The Democrats are playing up the candidates’ support for things that are standard Tea Party positions, but unpopular among most Americans: getting rid of the Departments of Energy, Commerce and Education; phasing out Social Security and Medicare; and instituting a 23 percent national sales tax to replace the income tax.
The arguments seem to be gaining the most traction in Kentucky and Nevada, where the nominations of Tea Party candidates have helped keep Democrats in the running — particularly Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader, who is considered among the most vulnerable incumbents. In Kentucky, the Democrat, Jack Conway, gained the support of the state’s police union last month after raising concerns about Mr. Paul’s opposition to federal antidrug efforts, a position unpopular among rural voters whose communities have been ravaged by methamphetamine.
All of those Senate races are close. And Republicans and, increasingly, independent analysts believe that the Tea Party candidates can prevail.
Delaware is a different story. Republicans, though they backed Ms. O’Donnell when she ran against Mr. Biden for the Senate, say she is unelectable, and in recent days they have attacked her for “repeatedly lying to voters” and “manipulating her own political history.” They said they had considered Mr. Castle a shoo-in until Mr. Miller defeated Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary in Alaska.
The Tea Party Express, a national group that helped secure Mr. Miller the nomination and helped Senator Scott Brown win in Massachusetts, then said it would spend $250,000 on television and radio advertisements for Ms. O’Donnell in advance of the primary Sept. 14.
Other trouble spots for Republicans are Tea Party-backed candidates mounting third-party challenges in several close House races. These include the Fifth and Second Congressional Districts in Virginia, where Republicans had controlled the seats until the last couple of years and had hopes of taking them back.
In Florida’s 12th Congressional District, where the seat is being vacated by a Republican, independent handicappers say that Randy Wilkinson, who registered to run on an official Tea Party line, could take a sizable chunk of voters from the Republican, handing the election to the Democrat, Lori Edwards.
And In New York’s 23rd Congressional District, Tea Party groups are backing Doug Hoffman, who created trouble for Republicans in a special election last year by mounting a challenge to the moderate Republican nominee, ultimately pushing her to quit the race. She threw her support to the Democrat, Bill Owens, and he won the district despite Republicans having controlled it for 150 years.
This year, Mr. Hoffman has said that if he does not win the Sept. 14 primary against Matt Doheny, who has the support of establishment Republicans, he will run as a third-party candidate again. And many Tea Party activists are supporting his bid even though they understand that this would probably result in the seat’s remaining in Democratic hands.
“Sometimes being principled doesn’t always get you what you want,” said Jennifer Bernstone, an activist who supported Mr. Hoffman last year and does again. “That’s part of being principled.”
But analysts say third-party candidates will affect 10 House races, at best, in a year when 100 are competitive. And Republican strategists say it is wishful thinking on the Democrats’ part to hope that they can combat Tea Party enthusiasm with concerns about Tea Party extremism.
“Enthusiasm in an off year is absolutely critical,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “I’m not disagreeing that there are places where the nontraditional Republican nominee may face a greater challenge than would a traditional Republican nominee, but I do not agree that ergo the Democrat is going to win.”
Labels: General information
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 2:22 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home