Rand Paul Is Getting Ready To SPANK Jack Conway, Leads By 15 Percentage Points According To MOST Reliable SurveyUSA Poll.

Rand Paul extends lead over Jack Conway in Bluegrass Poll
Dem's backers discount results
By Joseph Gerth



Buoyed by rising support from male voters, Republican Rand Paul has built a commanding 15-point lead over Democrat Jack Conway with just two months to go before Kentucky's U.S. Senate election, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA last week, was done at a time that economic news has been grim and after a conservative-issues group began running television ads linking Conway, Kentucky's attorney general, to both President Barack Obama and the health-care overhaul.

Jesse Denton, Paul's campaign manager, welcomed the results.

“It's great to see strong numbers like this, and it's great to see Dr. Paul's message of reduced spending and term limits being embraced.”

Denton, however, said the campaign knows the race isn't over. “We'll keep running like we're five points behind,” he said.

The Conway campaign doesn't believe the poll's findings, spokeswoman Allison Haley said. “Rand Paul'‘s recent statement in opposition to (anti-drug programs) in our Kentucky communities has not led to him gaining in the polls,” she said.

“This poll is not reflective of other internal and public polls and is simply inaccurate, ” Haley said.

Conway poller Pete Brodnitz, of the Benenson Strategy Group, said its analysis showed that the SurveyUSA poll overestimates the turnout of voters without a party registration and underestimates registered Democratic turnout.

In other recent public polls, Conway had appeared to be catching up to Paul, a Bowling Green ophthalmologist who has led in the Bluegrass Poll since winning the GOP primary in May.

In fact, one recent poll by Insight Cable's cn2 Politics blog showed that Conway had grabbed the lead after a series of comments by Paul opposing federal intervention to stop the flow of illegal drugs.

But according to the latest Bluegrass Poll of 561 likely Kentucky voters, Paul leads the race 55 percent to 40 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The poll, conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

A month ago, Paul led Conway 51-43 in the Bluegrass Poll, but since then, Paul has increased his lead even though he hasn't begun his television campaign ads.

The biggest movement in the poll comes among men, who have been steadily leaving Conway since the Bluegrass Poll first surveyed the race in May.

At that time, Conway got support from 44 percent of men. But in the most recent poll, his support among men has plummeted to 31 percent.

That mirrors the results SurveyUSA has found in other states during this election cycle — men nationally are moving away from the Democratic Party.

Paul, in fact, has either held steady or increased his percentage of the vote in virtually every demographic group, particularly among younger voters.

The poll found that Paul leads among all age groups, except those 65 and older, and leads among white voters and those who consider themselves conservative.

He also is ahead among those who have a favorable or neutral opinion of the tea party and those who oppose abortion rights.

Paul has the support of voters who own guns and those who don't, as well as those who graduated from college and those who didn't. Also, people who earn both more and less than $50,000 support Paul.

Conway leads among black voters and those who view themselves as moderates and liberals. He's also got the backing of those who favor abortion rights and those who have a negative view of the tea party.

Paul leads in all parts of the state, including what SurveyUSA defines as the Louisville area, a 14-county region that stretches to Taylor County.

The poll also shows Paul increasing his lead in Eastern Kentucky, where other polls have shown Conway gaining in the wake of Paul's comments on drugs. Paul has said he believes that cracking down on illegal drugs should be more of a state and local issue than a federal issue, but law enforcement officials in Eastern Kentucky have argued that they don't have the resources to do the job alone.

Republican Ted Jackson, who has run congressional and gubernatorial campaigns in Kentucky, said voters don't believe Conway when he says he is a moderate.

“These numbers are as much about Jack Conway as they are about Rand Paul,” he said. “Jack is simply the wrong candidate for Kentucky voters, and while the election is two months away, Paul's lead is becoming insurmountable.”

Democratic campaign consultant Danny Briscoe, who has run statewide and local races, said the numbers are “awful” for Conway.

“I just think it's a Republican year in Kentucky,” he said.

But Briscoe said that with the right combination of issues and missteps by Paul, Conway could still cut into Paul's lead.

“This (poll) doesn't mean that Conway doesn't have a chance to win,” said Briscoe. “(Paul) has demonstrated his ability to say some really strange things.”

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for the non-partisan Cook Political Report in Washington, said time is running out for Conway, whose campaign had been less visible than Paul's until recently and who started running television commercials this week with a fairly small ad buy.

“He's got 60 days,” she said. “I assume some of this is preserving resources, but it's getting time to start. … He doesn't have a lot of options.”

The poll's sample of likely voters was 47 percent Democrat and 42 percent Republican — even though voter registration in Kentucky is 56 percent Democratic and 37 percent Republican.

Ken Alper, news director for SurveyUSA, said the polling reflects the national trend of what's being called an “enthusiasm gap” in which Republicans, who look to pick up seats this year, are more motivated to vote.

The Washington Post, using Reuters/Ipsos polling data, recently identified Kentucky as one of five states where the “enthusiasm gap” is playing a key role in this year's elections.

Jason Blackburn, a 33-year-old state worker from Pike County, said that even though he is a Democrat, he plans to vote for Paul. In fact, he said, “I don't think he could do anything to make me not vote for him right now.”

Blackburn said he doesn't like anything that Obama has done since taking office two years ago. He said he's tired of the government giving benefits to “lazy fools” who don't want to work and sees the health-care overhaul legislation as just another handout.

“I don't agree with everything Paul says,” Blackburn said. “But from my perspective, it's just time for change, and not Obama's kind.”

But Rosemary Ortman, 60, a former teacher and a liberal Democrat, said she will vote for Conway because “he is a practical man who understands how government works. …

“And the other candidate is not a responsible person … the tea party people are very selfish; they say they want government to perform for them, but they don't want government to help someone who needs help feeding their children or who might have to go into foreclosure.”

Editor's comment: Check out the poll.

FYI: It is OK to start referring to Rand Paul as Senator Rand Paul. ;-)