Holy Crap: Acoording To SurveyUSA Poll, Rand Paul Is In Statistical Deadheat With Jack Conway.

Jack Conway pulls even with Rand Paul in Bluegrass Poll
Democrat closes a 15-point gap
By Joseph Gerth

Democrat Jack Conway has cut sharply into Republican Rand Paul's once-commanding lead in Kentucky's U.S. Senate race, moving into a statistical tie with a little more than five weeks before Election Day, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll shows that Conway, the state's attorney general, is now appealing to voters who say they are neutral on the tea party — Paul's base of support.

And Conway is building a significant lead among women, who earlier were almost evenly split between the two candidates.

According to the poll, Paul leads Conway 49 percent to 47 percent, with 4 percent undecided. That lead is well within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, questioned 611 likely voters Tuesday through Thursday.

The previous Bluegrass poll, released the first week of September, showed Paul leading Conway 55 percent to 40 percent.

Jay Leve, SurveyUSA's chief executive officer, said it's hard to tell exactly what the shift in the race means.

“Whether that is a result of genuine traction for (Conway), second thoughts about his opponent, or a newly raised consciousness among voters who a month ago were not focused on the contest, I am not sure,” he said.

Allison Haley, Conway's spokeswoman, said in a statement Saturday that the poll shows people are moving toward Conway as they find out about Paul.

“Jack Conway is well-positioned to win this race,” she said. “As attorney general, Jack has a proven record of protecting Kentucky families and holding powerful interests accountable. ... The more voters learn about Rand Paul, the more they see he doesn't share Kentucky values.”

But Jesse Benton, Paul's campaign manager, said he wasn't concerned about the polling.

“There are a ton of polls showing Dr. Paul leading,” he said. “We are very confident with where we're at. … His message of a balanced budget, real reform to the out-of-control deficit spending in Washington will win out on Nov. 2.”

Women backing Conway

The poll shows that Paul, a Bowling Green eye doctor, still has a big advantage among men but that Conway has moved well ahead among women — pushing a 3-percentage-point lead out to a 16-point lead in less than four weeks.

Conway has also slashed into Paul's lead among voters who earn more than $50,000 a year. Paul still leads among those voters, 51 percent to 46 percent, but his lead was 14 percentage points just a month ago and even larger shortly after the primary.

Paul still has big leads among Republicans, conservatives, abortion foes and those who have favorable opinions of the tea party.

Conway has significant leads among Democrats, moderates, liberals, abortion-rights supporters and those who have unfavorable opinions of the tea party.

Neither has a big lead among young, middle-aged or older voters.

Geographically, Paul's biggest advantage is in Eastern Kentucky, where he leads by 13 points. But Conway has pushed ahead in the Louisville area, which includes 14 counties running from Jefferson to Taylor. And Conway has moved into a tie in north-central Kentucky.

Paul and Conway are running to succeed Republican Jim Bunning, who decided not to seek a third term, in part because of the difficulty he was having raising campaign money.

Michael Martin of Vine Grove, a civil service worker at Fort Knox, said he plans to vote for Conway on Nov. 2 — in large part because he's not Paul.

“I'm very opposed to Rand Paul,” said Martin, a poll respondent who agreed to a follow-up interview. “He sounds like a crazy individual.”

Martin, 50, said he thinks Paul takes positions without putting much thought into them and then has to retract them.

“It's this whole tea party thing,” he said, referring to the loosely organized network of groups that favor smaller government and less spending. “He's not qualified to be a senator. … Kentucky was a laughingstock because we had Jim Bunning. I think we're going to end up doing worse than that.”
Paul's values praised

But Tamara Cann, a 40-year-old medical office manager from Greenup County and also a poll respondent, said she plans to vote for Paul “because of his conservative values.”

“I think the government is spending way too much money and they're out of control,” she said.

Cann said she believes that Paul is “willing to fight and he has the gumption to do it. I don't want someone who is going to go in and be there in name only.”

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said she's not surprised that Conway has pulled closer. She noted that he has “been taking whacks at Paul” with a television ad that quotes the Republican saying that nonviolent acts should not be illegal.

“I think it's having an effect, and the race has closed,” she said.

But she said Conway still has the problem of a largely unmotivated Democratic base that he will have to somehow energize to go to the polls.

Still, Duffy said the poll could aid Conway's effort to raise money as the Federal Election Commission's next deadline for reporting fundraising and expenditures is on the horizon.

“There are six more days left in this quarter,” she said.

Editor's comment: this is unbelievable, folks.