Though I Prefer SURVEYUSA Poll, Bluegrass Poll Suggests Kentucky GOP Race For Governor May Already Be O-V-E-R! Advantage? David Williams/Richie Farmer

Bluegrass Poll | David Williams has big lead in GOP race for Kentucky governor
Beshear now would beat all Republicans seeking nomination
Written by Deborah Yetter

With the election less than five weeks away, Senate President David Williams holds a commanding lead over his two opponents in the Republican primary race for governor of Kentucky, according to a Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

But the poll also found that Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear would defeat Williams by 12 percentage points if the general election were held today.

Williams and his running mate, Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer, are favored by 49 percent of Republicans likely to vote in the May 17 primary.

By contrast, 14 percent of likely Republican voters favor Louisville businessman Phil Moffett and running mate Mike Harmon, while 12 percent plan to vote for Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw and running mate Bill Vermillion.

But none of those Republican slates are polling near Beshear, who is seeking a second term, this time with former Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson as his running mate.

Among likely Kentucky voters, both Republicans and Democrats, Beshear leads Williams 51 percent to 39 percent if the general election were held today. He would win by about 20 points in a general election race against Moffett or Holsclaw.

The telephone poll was conducted by SurveyUSA between April 8 and 13 and included voters who have cellphones but who do not use a home phone.

Ted Jackson, a Republican political consultant, said he's not surprised to find Williams leading in the Republican primary because he and Farmer are the best-funded GOP ticket — and the best known in that race.

“There is no campaign as far as this primary is concerned — it would be a stretch to call it a skirmish,” Jackson said.

Scott Jennings, a spokesman for the Williams-Farmer campaign, said the campaign is happy with the poll results.

“Being right at the 50 percent mark is a good place to be, especially in a three-way primary,” Jennings said.

He said he's not concerned that the poll shows Williams trailing Beshear.

“There's plenty of time for us to communicate with the public about the issues,” he said.

Beshear's campaign wouldn't discuss the poll findings.

“There is plenty of time in the fall to focus on things like this,” campaign spokesman Bill Hyers said. “Right now the governor is focused on bringing jobs to every corner of the state.”

Election still far off

Jackson — who is not working for any of the candidates — said he thinks it's too early to gauge the general election.

“If he (Williams) has the funds, which I expect he will, I expect he will run a competitive race,” Jackson said. “It's hard to beat an incumbent, but we've seen it happen before.”

Holsclaw and Moffett insist the primary is still a three-way race.

“I'm not the least bit discouraged by the numbers,” Holsclaw said. “I've been an underdog before.”

Moffett noted that 25 percent of Republican voters said they were undecided, which could work in his favor.

“I can tell you from the feedback we get out in the state, I think we're a lot more competitive than those numbers,” Moffett said.

Some observers don't share that confidence, including Dewey Clayton, a political science professor at the University of Louisville, who said he's surprised the Williams-Farmer ticket didn't poll higher.

“I would have thought they'd be over 50 percent,” Clayton said. “They have a substantial war chest and fundraising advantage and name recognition as well.”

Williams, a Burkesville lawyer, has served in the General Assembly since 1985.

Farmer, a former University of Kentucky basketball star, is serving his second term as agriculture commissioner.

Fundraising varies

The Williams-Farmer campaign has raised more than $1 million, according to the latest campaign-finance reports. Updated reports are expected next week.

Moffett said he expects to report about $100,000 for his campaign, and Holsclaw more than $7,000.

According to the GOP primary poll, Williams led in all parts of the state but showed the highest numbers in Eastern Kentucky, with 65 percent of the vote.

Among his backers there is Paul Vaughn, who lives in Lexington but is from Clay County, Farmer's home county.

Vaughn, 80, a Republican poll respondent who agreed to a follow-up interview, said he plans to vote for the Williams ticket and has been impressed with Farmer since his days as a high school and college basketball standout.

“I like Williams and Farmer,” said Vaughn, who is retired.

But John Whittle, a Louisville Republican poll respondent who agreed to a follow-up interview, said he prefers Moffett or Holsclaw.

Whittle, 42, a lawyer, said he likes Moffett's stance. “He's not an establishment candidate.” Holsclaw, he said, “is a good government servant.”

Whittle said he's concerned about Williams' role in the recent special legislative session held after the House and Senate failed to reach agreement in the regular 2011 session on resolving a shortfall in the state's Medicaid program.

“I thought he wasted a lot of time and money,” Whittle said.

Joyce Greene, a Democrat from Henderson who agreed to a follow-up interview, said she expects to cross party lines and vote for the Republican candidate for governor this fall.

Greene, 63, said most Democratic candidates are too liberal for her when it comes to social issues like abortion.

“I'm strictly against abortion,” she said.

Impact of Galbraith

The poll didn't take into account the potential impact of Gatewood Galbraith, a Lexington lawyer and perennial candidate who has filed to run for governor as an independent but must gather 5,000 signatures by Aug. 9 to get on the ballot.

Galbraith said he will meet the deadline. And he said he expects to reduce support for Beshear and Williams, presuming Williams is the Republican candidate.

“We're going to draw votes from both of them,” said Galbraith, whose running mate is Dea Riley, a Shelbyville marketing executive. “We have no place to go but up, and they have no place to go but down.”

Editor's note:

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews conducted April 8-13 with 1,589 likely voters, including 507 likely Republican voters, by SurveyUSA. Twenty-nine percent of adult respondents were interviewed on a cellphone, using live operators. Seventy-one percent of adult respondents were interviewed on a home phone using the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random using a random-digit dialed sample provided by Survey Sampling of Fairfield, Conn.

The margin of error in the Republican primary poll was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, while the margin of error in the general election poll was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had all respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.

In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® conforms to the standards of the National Council on Public Polls.