Al Cross And I See The Primary Elections And Forecasts For The General Elections Differently. Check Out My Thoughts Here Tomorrow.
David Williams will need the help of many
Written by Al Cross
FRANKFORT, Ky. — If an incumbent is running, the race is supposed to be mainly about his or her record. But so far in the Kentucky governor's race, it has been mainly about Republican challenger David Williams — his personality, which he acknowledges is a problem; his gambling and his opposition to expanding it; his running mate's not-so-conservative handling of taxpayers' money; his record as state Senate president, which turns off the tea party element in the GOP; and his performance in last Tuesday's primary, which fell short of expectations because of low turnout and tea party influence.
Now that he is the Republican nominee, Williams should find it easier to get voters to pay the necessary attention to Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear, whom he characterizes as the feckless leader of a state that needs major reforms and a politician aligned with the liberal elements of his party.
But first he must gather up the more conservative and populist elements of his own party and find a way to persuade independents and conservative Democrats to oust an incumbent governor who has wrestled well with the Great Recession and avoided scandal, unlike the last two.
The tea party is not “the Tea Party” in this space, because it is not a political party in the usual sense and its followers are largely in the Republican Party. But Tuesday's results leave no question that it has significant influence in that party and suggest that it probably has some outside the GOP.
Louisville businessman Phil Moffett had never run for public office and was outspent by about 10 to 1, but running as the tea party candidate, he got 38 percent of the vote against Williams, who got 48 percent — a healthy plurality, but short of the majority many of us expected. It's safe to say that some of Moffett's vote was not so much pro-tea party as anti-Williams, as was perhaps more of the 14 percent that went to Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw, who ran a limited campaign that appealed mainly to Louisville moderates.
Down the ballot, tea party slating made the difference for Bill Johnson, who apparently defeated Republican establishment candidate Hilda Legg in the primary for secretary of state; likely made a landslide of bankrupt builder John Kemper's win over state Rep. Addia Wuchner for state auditor; and contributed to Rep. Jamie Comer's 2-to-1 thumping of Shelby County Judge-Executive Rob Rothenburger for agriculture commissioner.
While it's risky to draw firm conclusions from a low-turnout election, Tuesday's Republican electorate — 13 percent in the governor's race — was about a third of what we are likely to see in the fall. Republican turnout in the 2007 and 2003 general elections, respectively, was only 36.2 percent and 40.5 percent. (The Democratic turnout was 42 and 40.8.)
It will take sophisticated statistical analysis to quantify the tea party vote and some time to see how many of its followers will work for Williams or even vote for him. They could stay home or vote for independent Gatewood Galbraith, who shares their populist, anti-politician views.
In any event, Williams clearly needs their help, and the key to that may be U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, who is the face of the tea party in the state and much of the nation.
Paul stayed out of the primary, perhaps because he is focused on national issues, and perhaps because he was conflicted; Moffett is a philosophical soul mate, but Williams helped Paul in last year's senatorial primary, when U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the party boss, was backing Trey Grayson. Paul's lack of help for Moffett disillusioned some tea party activists, so even if he gets and stays involved, a significant number may not follow him.
The role of Paul and his followers is the next phase in the expectations game for Williams, who came up a bit short Tuesday. The next phase will be fundraising. “Williams needs an awful lot of money, and he doesn't need it right now, but he needs to know he's going to have it,” said former state Democratic chairman Danny Briscoe, a Louisville consultant with friends in both parties.
Briscoe said Williams' less-than-expected primary performance, which could discourage interest groups from going after Beshear, might not make much difference, because Republicans are talking about getting up to $7 million from national party sources.
While Williams apparently exhausted his treasury on the primary, Beshear has more than $3 million, can easily raise a lot more and plans to start television advertising Monday.
Williams started an Internet ad after the primary but misstepped by attributing conservative columnist John David Dyche's criticism of Beshear to this newspaper and using the “worst-run state” allegation that Moffett often used. That study, by 24/7 Wall St.com but often attributed to Forbes magazine, was based on a wide range of data that are little influenced by current management, the exception being the state's recently lowered credit rating.
Williams has a case to make against Beshear, but his chances mainly lie in his ability to link the incumbent to President Barack Obama, partly through Beshear's ties to Attorney General Jack Conway — whose opponent, Hopkins County Attorney Todd P'Pool, made an impressive election-night speech. It's easy to imagine Republicans selling a ticket with the pitch, “Here's your chance to send Barack Obama a message, and get rid of his influence in this state.” Briscoe thinks that argument could include well-argued attacks on Beshear's running mate, former Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, on social issues.
As for his personality, Williams can do little about that, except to self-deprecate and sell himself as someone who is tough when the times call for it. He's lucky that Beshear also lacks a strong personal following, but in the end, the political product named David Williams is unlikely to sell as well as the Republican brand.
A majority of Kentucky voters are still Democratic in registration, but not in identification. A March 1 poll for Insight Communications' cn|2 political news operation asked, “Regardless of how you are registered, do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?” The results: 43.9 percent Democratic, 42.5 percent Republican and 11.3 percent unsure, with 2.2 percent refusing to say. Watch those numbers; they could forecast the outcome on Nov. 8.
Al Cross, former Courier-Journal political writer, is director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in the School of Journalism and Telecommunications at the University of Kentucky. His email address is al.cross@uky.edu. His views are his own, not those of the University of Kentucky.
Written by Al Cross
FRANKFORT, Ky. — If an incumbent is running, the race is supposed to be mainly about his or her record. But so far in the Kentucky governor's race, it has been mainly about Republican challenger David Williams — his personality, which he acknowledges is a problem; his gambling and his opposition to expanding it; his running mate's not-so-conservative handling of taxpayers' money; his record as state Senate president, which turns off the tea party element in the GOP; and his performance in last Tuesday's primary, which fell short of expectations because of low turnout and tea party influence.
Now that he is the Republican nominee, Williams should find it easier to get voters to pay the necessary attention to Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear, whom he characterizes as the feckless leader of a state that needs major reforms and a politician aligned with the liberal elements of his party.
But first he must gather up the more conservative and populist elements of his own party and find a way to persuade independents and conservative Democrats to oust an incumbent governor who has wrestled well with the Great Recession and avoided scandal, unlike the last two.
The tea party is not “the Tea Party” in this space, because it is not a political party in the usual sense and its followers are largely in the Republican Party. But Tuesday's results leave no question that it has significant influence in that party and suggest that it probably has some outside the GOP.
Louisville businessman Phil Moffett had never run for public office and was outspent by about 10 to 1, but running as the tea party candidate, he got 38 percent of the vote against Williams, who got 48 percent — a healthy plurality, but short of the majority many of us expected. It's safe to say that some of Moffett's vote was not so much pro-tea party as anti-Williams, as was perhaps more of the 14 percent that went to Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw, who ran a limited campaign that appealed mainly to Louisville moderates.
Down the ballot, tea party slating made the difference for Bill Johnson, who apparently defeated Republican establishment candidate Hilda Legg in the primary for secretary of state; likely made a landslide of bankrupt builder John Kemper's win over state Rep. Addia Wuchner for state auditor; and contributed to Rep. Jamie Comer's 2-to-1 thumping of Shelby County Judge-Executive Rob Rothenburger for agriculture commissioner.
While it's risky to draw firm conclusions from a low-turnout election, Tuesday's Republican electorate — 13 percent in the governor's race — was about a third of what we are likely to see in the fall. Republican turnout in the 2007 and 2003 general elections, respectively, was only 36.2 percent and 40.5 percent. (The Democratic turnout was 42 and 40.8.)
It will take sophisticated statistical analysis to quantify the tea party vote and some time to see how many of its followers will work for Williams or even vote for him. They could stay home or vote for independent Gatewood Galbraith, who shares their populist, anti-politician views.
In any event, Williams clearly needs their help, and the key to that may be U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, who is the face of the tea party in the state and much of the nation.
Paul stayed out of the primary, perhaps because he is focused on national issues, and perhaps because he was conflicted; Moffett is a philosophical soul mate, but Williams helped Paul in last year's senatorial primary, when U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the party boss, was backing Trey Grayson. Paul's lack of help for Moffett disillusioned some tea party activists, so even if he gets and stays involved, a significant number may not follow him.
The role of Paul and his followers is the next phase in the expectations game for Williams, who came up a bit short Tuesday. The next phase will be fundraising. “Williams needs an awful lot of money, and he doesn't need it right now, but he needs to know he's going to have it,” said former state Democratic chairman Danny Briscoe, a Louisville consultant with friends in both parties.
Briscoe said Williams' less-than-expected primary performance, which could discourage interest groups from going after Beshear, might not make much difference, because Republicans are talking about getting up to $7 million from national party sources.
While Williams apparently exhausted his treasury on the primary, Beshear has more than $3 million, can easily raise a lot more and plans to start television advertising Monday.
Williams started an Internet ad after the primary but misstepped by attributing conservative columnist John David Dyche's criticism of Beshear to this newspaper and using the “worst-run state” allegation that Moffett often used. That study, by 24/7 Wall St.com but often attributed to Forbes magazine, was based on a wide range of data that are little influenced by current management, the exception being the state's recently lowered credit rating.
Williams has a case to make against Beshear, but his chances mainly lie in his ability to link the incumbent to President Barack Obama, partly through Beshear's ties to Attorney General Jack Conway — whose opponent, Hopkins County Attorney Todd P'Pool, made an impressive election-night speech. It's easy to imagine Republicans selling a ticket with the pitch, “Here's your chance to send Barack Obama a message, and get rid of his influence in this state.” Briscoe thinks that argument could include well-argued attacks on Beshear's running mate, former Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, on social issues.
As for his personality, Williams can do little about that, except to self-deprecate and sell himself as someone who is tough when the times call for it. He's lucky that Beshear also lacks a strong personal following, but in the end, the political product named David Williams is unlikely to sell as well as the Republican brand.
A majority of Kentucky voters are still Democratic in registration, but not in identification. A March 1 poll for Insight Communications' cn|2 political news operation asked, “Regardless of how you are registered, do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?” The results: 43.9 percent Democratic, 42.5 percent Republican and 11.3 percent unsure, with 2.2 percent refusing to say. Watch those numbers; they could forecast the outcome on Nov. 8.
Al Cross, former Courier-Journal political writer, is director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues in the School of Journalism and Telecommunications at the University of Kentucky. His email address is al.cross@uky.edu. His views are his own, not those of the University of Kentucky.
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