Andy Hightower Has Done A Good Job Analyzing The Recent Public Policy Polling On Kentucky Races. Check It Out.
What the Recent Poll Tells Us About the Statewide Races
If you haven't seen it yet, Public Policy Polling, a fairly accurate Democratic polling firm, released the results from a poll conducted from August 25th to August 28th.
Here are the quick results:
Race Dem Rep Other Und.
Governor /
Lt. Governor 55% Beshear 28% Williams 10% Galbraith (I) 8%
Attorney General 47% Conway 36% P'Pool 18%
Secretary of State 38% Grimes 35% Johnson 26%
Auditor 34% Edelen 31% Kemper 35%
Treasurer 43% Hollenbach 28% Crosbie 16% Moellman (L) 14%
Agriculture 36% Farmer 37% Comer 27%
Biases in the poll
First we should note an obvious bias of the poll. One questions asked was "Who did you vote for President in 2008?" which resulted in 48% for McCain and 44% for Obama. McCain actually defeated Obama in Kentucky 57% to 41%, a 13-point swing from these numbers, so we suggest that all of the Dems should be knocked a few points and you should probably add a few points to the conservatives.
Another obvious bias in the polling is the omission of a question about Steve Beshear's favorability. By phrasing the question regarding Steve Beshear ("Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance?") it is in no way comparable to the much tougher question asked of the other candidates ("Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of" Candidate X?). They are not the same question and should not be compared, although the poll uses them to imply that Beshear is "headed to a reelection romp". It may be true, but it is not supported by comparing the results of these two uneven questions.
The Governor's Race
There is no other take-away from these results than that Williams has a tough climb ahead. Polling at less than 30%, he has two months to consolidate his base and make a compelling case to Kentucky voters that any contentment with Beshear as governor is misplaced. While Kentucky's economy and the resulting voter discontentment are clearly on his side, it seems he struggles to break out of his more traditional circles and recruit new blood to his cause. He also faces the challenge of Beshear's slickness - despite clear improprieties in his office, forcing state workers to give to his campaign, spending thousands of taxpayer dollars on legislatively rejected contracts and plenty of other substantial problems with his tenure - few in Kentucky's dwindling media find it important to hold him accountable. It is a challenge answered only by expenditures from the Williams and Galbraith campaigns. While Williams has some funding, he recently stated that "This mudslinging that they are already involved in and all these negative ads, I'm going to avoid that type of thing."
If Williams isn't telling Kentuckians about Beshear's shortcomings and scandals, no one will.
The Attorney General Race
The Attorney General's race will be a contest. Incumbent Jack Conway has nearly universal name ID, and only receives 47% support in this left-leaning poll. There are no new facts about Jack Conway that will suddenly convince Kentuckians that they actually like him. Meanwhile, Todd P'Pool still has to introduce himself. While a majority of Kentuckians are considering voting against Conway, they do not yet know the Hopkins County attorney running against him. P'Pool is already up with his second ad of the campaign, and will likely be on air until the election. He has the resources to run an effective campaign, and it will likely close the current gap.
Secretary of State and Auditor
These two races are together because they break out similarly. Both Republican challengers, Johnson and Kemper, are in a statistical tie with their opponents. All four candidates for these open seats are still unknown to a large portion of voters. Unfortunately, Johnson and Kemper share the same disadvantages going forward. First, Beshear's lead will help the Democrats in these races as voters are more likely to follow the ticket down ballot in races that they don't know the candidates. Additionally, the Democrats, Grimes and Edelen, are well-funded which will allow them to more easily build their name-ID and familiarity prior to the election. While this poll is great news about the current landscape for Johnson and Kemper, they must use this news to leverage support for the coming media campaign. It will be a challenge for Johnson and Kemper to keep up.
Treasurer
For Hollenbach, an incumbent with dynastic name ID, this poll shows that he is easily beatable. The question is only whether Crosbie and Moellman will split the vote in such a way that allows Hollenbach to be reelected with a mediocre plurality. Crosbie has the funding to mount a competitive campaign and will likely tighten this race.
Agriculture Commissioner
James Comer is the only Republican candidate with a lead in this poll. He is well funded and has the strong backing of the agriculture community. He has to fight against the same sort of inertia mentioned above that challenges other Republican candidates, but Comer is likely to prevail.
Sen. Jack Westwood Will Retire
We are reprinting this from our blog.
CN2 has reported that Republican Senator Jack Westwood announced that he does not intend to seek reelection in 2012, creating an open seat in the Kentucky Senate that is likely to remain Republican.
The 23rd Senate district overlaps several Republican members of the House of Representatives, who have pledged not to run against one another.
The 23rd Senate District currently includes three state representatives, who could be potential candidates to replace Westwood.
Republican Reps. Alecia Webb-Edgington of Fort Wright and Adam Koenig of Erlanger live in the district as does Democratic Rep. Arnold Simpson of Covington.
Both Webb-Edgington and Koenig indicated interest in the race but hinted that they wouldn't run against each other in a Republican primary.
"I'm not going to close the door to anything at this juncture," Webb-Edgington said. "But we're not looking to have any bloody primaries among Republicans."
Koenig said the Senate seat "is something I'm going to look at."
"But I'm pretty darn happy in the House. I'd like to be part of the first group of Republican majority in the House since 1920," he said.
Sen. Westwood has bounced around in the top portion of our Senate Scorecards, ranking as high as 4th and as low as 11th and generally scoring around 60 (a minimum score of 70 is required to be considered 'acceptable').
Of the two replacements mentioned, Rep. Adam Koenig has the much better record for taxpayers. While he has faced primary opposition from the right in the past, his ranking has risen from 11th in 2008 and 2009 to 3rd in 2010 with an 'acceptable' score of 73.
Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington is considered a rising star in the Republican party, but has disappointed on our scorecard, never reaching the threshold score of '70' and only receiving a '53' in 2010.
While they may agree not to primary one another, we would not be surprised to see other candidates arise to challenge for the seat from an area of the state with strong conservative activists.
Best Regards,
Andy Hightower
If you haven't seen it yet, Public Policy Polling, a fairly accurate Democratic polling firm, released the results from a poll conducted from August 25th to August 28th.
Here are the quick results:
Race Dem Rep Other Und.
Governor /
Lt. Governor 55% Beshear 28% Williams 10% Galbraith (I) 8%
Attorney General 47% Conway 36% P'Pool 18%
Secretary of State 38% Grimes 35% Johnson 26%
Auditor 34% Edelen 31% Kemper 35%
Treasurer 43% Hollenbach 28% Crosbie 16% Moellman (L) 14%
Agriculture 36% Farmer 37% Comer 27%
Biases in the poll
First we should note an obvious bias of the poll. One questions asked was "Who did you vote for President in 2008?" which resulted in 48% for McCain and 44% for Obama. McCain actually defeated Obama in Kentucky 57% to 41%, a 13-point swing from these numbers, so we suggest that all of the Dems should be knocked a few points and you should probably add a few points to the conservatives.
Another obvious bias in the polling is the omission of a question about Steve Beshear's favorability. By phrasing the question regarding Steve Beshear ("Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance?") it is in no way comparable to the much tougher question asked of the other candidates ("Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of" Candidate X?). They are not the same question and should not be compared, although the poll uses them to imply that Beshear is "headed to a reelection romp". It may be true, but it is not supported by comparing the results of these two uneven questions.
The Governor's Race
There is no other take-away from these results than that Williams has a tough climb ahead. Polling at less than 30%, he has two months to consolidate his base and make a compelling case to Kentucky voters that any contentment with Beshear as governor is misplaced. While Kentucky's economy and the resulting voter discontentment are clearly on his side, it seems he struggles to break out of his more traditional circles and recruit new blood to his cause. He also faces the challenge of Beshear's slickness - despite clear improprieties in his office, forcing state workers to give to his campaign, spending thousands of taxpayer dollars on legislatively rejected contracts and plenty of other substantial problems with his tenure - few in Kentucky's dwindling media find it important to hold him accountable. It is a challenge answered only by expenditures from the Williams and Galbraith campaigns. While Williams has some funding, he recently stated that "This mudslinging that they are already involved in and all these negative ads, I'm going to avoid that type of thing."
If Williams isn't telling Kentuckians about Beshear's shortcomings and scandals, no one will.
The Attorney General Race
The Attorney General's race will be a contest. Incumbent Jack Conway has nearly universal name ID, and only receives 47% support in this left-leaning poll. There are no new facts about Jack Conway that will suddenly convince Kentuckians that they actually like him. Meanwhile, Todd P'Pool still has to introduce himself. While a majority of Kentuckians are considering voting against Conway, they do not yet know the Hopkins County attorney running against him. P'Pool is already up with his second ad of the campaign, and will likely be on air until the election. He has the resources to run an effective campaign, and it will likely close the current gap.
Secretary of State and Auditor
These two races are together because they break out similarly. Both Republican challengers, Johnson and Kemper, are in a statistical tie with their opponents. All four candidates for these open seats are still unknown to a large portion of voters. Unfortunately, Johnson and Kemper share the same disadvantages going forward. First, Beshear's lead will help the Democrats in these races as voters are more likely to follow the ticket down ballot in races that they don't know the candidates. Additionally, the Democrats, Grimes and Edelen, are well-funded which will allow them to more easily build their name-ID and familiarity prior to the election. While this poll is great news about the current landscape for Johnson and Kemper, they must use this news to leverage support for the coming media campaign. It will be a challenge for Johnson and Kemper to keep up.
Treasurer
For Hollenbach, an incumbent with dynastic name ID, this poll shows that he is easily beatable. The question is only whether Crosbie and Moellman will split the vote in such a way that allows Hollenbach to be reelected with a mediocre plurality. Crosbie has the funding to mount a competitive campaign and will likely tighten this race.
Agriculture Commissioner
James Comer is the only Republican candidate with a lead in this poll. He is well funded and has the strong backing of the agriculture community. He has to fight against the same sort of inertia mentioned above that challenges other Republican candidates, but Comer is likely to prevail.
Sen. Jack Westwood Will Retire
We are reprinting this from our blog.
CN2 has reported that Republican Senator Jack Westwood announced that he does not intend to seek reelection in 2012, creating an open seat in the Kentucky Senate that is likely to remain Republican.
The 23rd Senate district overlaps several Republican members of the House of Representatives, who have pledged not to run against one another.
The 23rd Senate District currently includes three state representatives, who could be potential candidates to replace Westwood.
Republican Reps. Alecia Webb-Edgington of Fort Wright and Adam Koenig of Erlanger live in the district as does Democratic Rep. Arnold Simpson of Covington.
Both Webb-Edgington and Koenig indicated interest in the race but hinted that they wouldn't run against each other in a Republican primary.
"I'm not going to close the door to anything at this juncture," Webb-Edgington said. "But we're not looking to have any bloody primaries among Republicans."
Koenig said the Senate seat "is something I'm going to look at."
"But I'm pretty darn happy in the House. I'd like to be part of the first group of Republican majority in the House since 1920," he said.
Sen. Westwood has bounced around in the top portion of our Senate Scorecards, ranking as high as 4th and as low as 11th and generally scoring around 60 (a minimum score of 70 is required to be considered 'acceptable').
Of the two replacements mentioned, Rep. Adam Koenig has the much better record for taxpayers. While he has faced primary opposition from the right in the past, his ranking has risen from 11th in 2008 and 2009 to 3rd in 2010 with an 'acceptable' score of 73.
Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington is considered a rising star in the Republican party, but has disappointed on our scorecard, never reaching the threshold score of '70' and only receiving a '53' in 2010.
While they may agree not to primary one another, we would not be surprised to see other candidates arise to challenge for the seat from an area of the state with strong conservative activists.
Best Regards,
Andy Hightower
Labels: Polling
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 10:10 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home