SurveyUSA Poll: Steve Beshear Widens Lead Over David Williams (57% To 26%), Suggesting (According To Larry Sabato) Democrats May Ride His Coattails!

Steve Beshear widens lead in governor's poll: Other Democrats may ride coattails

Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear has extended his lead to 31 points over Republican Senate President David Williams, with just five weeks left before the Nov. 8 election, according to the latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, found that Beshear leads Williams 57 percent to 26 percent among likely Kentucky voters. The third candidate in the governor’s race, independent Gatewood Galbraith, had 8 percent, and 9 percent were undecided.

The poll questioned 569 likely voters Sept. 22-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Beshear led Williams by 24 points in the last Bluegrass Poll, conducted in late July, and the fact that his lead continues to grow has some political observers convinced that his coattails will be long enough to carry most, if not all, of the state’s other Democratic candidates for constitutional offices to victory.

One person who believes Beshear could lead a wave of Democrats is Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, who said polling showing Williams so far behind likely will push down GOP turnout.

“If you’re a Republican and you’re not depressed by these numbers, you must be on Prozac,” he said.

The poll likely was not affected by new anti-Beshear television and radio ads, paid for by an independent political group, because the surveying was almost complete when the ads began running.

Williams' campaign chairman, Donald Storm, noted that not only does the poll not take into account the new ads, it came before news stories that said Beshear is claiming credit for creating jobs that don't yet exist.

“It is no secret that we've been outspent in this campaign by a governor covering up his abysmal record with a barrage of negative, misleading ads,” Storm said in a statement.

“David is going to keep fighting for his plan to eliminate the state's income taxes, enable neighborhood schools in Jefferson County, and get our state budget under control. … We won't stop taking our positive message to the people until the last minute before the polls close in November,” Storm said.

The Beshear campaign’s spokesman, Matt Erwin, responded to the poll's findings by saying, “While the governor is always gratified by the support of Kentuckians, he remains focused on creating jobs in every corner of Kentucky.”
Wide support

The poll found that Beshear led in all demographic groups except among those who said they are conservative, Republican and members of the tea party.

Majorities of men and women support Beshear, as do voters in all age groups. Liberals and moderates back him, as well as people who have graduated college and those who haven’t.

Those who earn less than $40,000 a year are most likely to favor Beshear, but a majority of those who earn more than $40,000 and more than $80,000 support him as well.

Those who favor and those who oppose abortion rights also prefer Beshear, as do those who own guns and those who don’t.

And he gets the backing of voters who go to church regularly, along with those who almost never attend.

Louisville political consultant Danny Briscoe, a Democrat, said the poll’s results are not good for down-ticket Republicans.

“It’s awfully hard to overcome if you’re a Republican,” he said.

At least one candidate is concerned about a bad loss at the top of the ticket affecting other races.

Republican state Rep. James Comer, who is running for agriculture commissioner against Democrat Bob Farmer, said he believes his race is getting enough attention that voters will be educated about their choices. But Comer acknowledged the possibility of a bad night for Republicans.

“I worry about straight-ticket voting,” Comer said.

David Ray, campaign manager for Republican attorney general nominee Todd P’Pool, said he doesn’t have time to focus on the governor’s race and doesn’t believe that it will affect P’Pool’s chances of unseating Democratic incumbent Jack Conway.

“I think the voters of Kentucky are discerning,” he said. “I think they judge all the races and all the candidates on their merits, and I trust their judgment.”

Sabato, however, said that may be wishful thinking.

“There’s got to be coattails,” he said. “If (Beshear gets 55 percent), that’s the definition of a landslide. Usually, you do have significant coattails at that point.”

Dede Ralston, a 62-year-old retired Delta Airlines flight attendant who lives in Park Hills, is among those who will vote to give Beshear and all the Democrats landslide victories.

“The Republicans in Kentucky are just too conservative,” said Ralston, who responded to the poll and agreed to a follow-up interview.

Ralston said she considers herself a moderate and won’t vote for candidates she considers too liberal either. “I used to live in Chicago and I wouldn’t vote for the Democrats there.”

Likewise, Terry Rowe, a 47-year-old heating and air-conditioning technician from Louisville, said he would vote for Beshear and probably all the other Democrats this year.

“I like what (Beshear) has done for the state, and I like Jerry Abramson,” said Rowe, referring to Beshear’s running mate and former mayor of Louisville.

Furthermore, he said, he doesn’t know everyone else on the ballot, so his votes will likely go to one party.

“This year I just like the Democrats better,” he said.
In Williams' camp

But Joneda Stuedle, 48, of Walton, said she’ll vote for Williams because “I think we need a change.”

She thinks Beshear should have done more to bring jobs to Kentucky and to reduce the cost of health care “so people don’t have to rob Peter to pay Paul to afford it.”

Stuedle, who takes care of her disabled mother, said she plans to vote a straight GOP ticket because “I generally vote for Republicans.”

The poll found that Williams’ biggest problem is that many voters don’t really like him.

More than twice as many people said they had an unfavorable impression of him as those who said they viewed him favorably, 38-17 percent. Forty-four percent said they had a neutral opinion of him or no opinion at all.

The poll also found that only 30 percent of Republican voters said they had a favorable opinion of Williams.

Williams’ worst favorability numbers came in the Louisville region, where 45 percent of likely voters said they had unfavorable opinions of him. SurveyUSA defines the Louisville region as a 14-county area running from Jefferson to Taylor.

Fifty-one 51 percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of Beshear, with 20 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion. Sixty-eight percent of Democrats said they had favorable views of Beshear.

Editor's note:

ABOUT THE POLL

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 22-27 with 569 likely Kentucky voters by SurveyUSA. Twenty-five percent of the adult respondents were interviewed on a cellphone by call center employees. Seventy-five percent of the adult respondents were interviewed on a landline phone. Of the landline respondents, two-thirds were interviewed using recorded voice and one-third were interviewed by call center employees.

The margin of error of the poll was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. In theory, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error in one direction or the other had the entire universe of respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.

In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.

Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal/WHAS11 is prohibited.

THE COURIER-JOURNAL/WHAS11 BLUEGRASS POLL® conforms to the standards of the National Council on Public Polls.