Web Osi Speaks!

Monday, September 17, 2012


Romney has large lead in Kentucky, Bluegrass Poll shows
Survey suggests Republican's margin has more to do with voter dislike of Obama
Written by
Joseph Gerth

President Barack Obama trails his GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, in the presidential race in Kentucky 53 percent to 39 percent, according to the latest Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

But the findings suggest that Romney’s 14-point lead has more to do with voters’ dislike of Obama than it does with their support for the GOP nominee.

The poll of 606 likely voters was conducted Sept. 11-13 by SurveyUSA. Seventy-six percent of respondents answered a recorded questionnaire on their home phones, while 24 percent, who were pre-screened on cell phones, replied to written surveys sent to them over the Internet.

The margin of error on the main sample of respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The results indicate that Obama’s fortunes in Kentucky haven’t changed much since 2008, when he lost the state to Republican Sen. John McCain by a margin of 57 percent to 41 percent.

Since then, Obama has done little to woo Kentucky voters. Other than to land Air Force One in Northern Kentucky before driving to Cincinnati several times, Obama has been to Kentucky only once — to attend a 2011 ceremony at Fort Campbell to honor the Navy SEALs who killed terrorist Osama bin Laden.

“Romney could only wish the election was going to be decided in Kentucky,” said Ted Jackson, a Republican political consultant in Louisville. “We’re a very conservative state, and on issue after issue after issue, Kentuckians just seem to line up better with Romney.”

Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe of Louisville blamed Obama’s poor poll numbers on racism. “Ohio and Pennsylvania have all kinds of blue-collar people ... they have been hit hard by the economy. Why is (Obama) ahead there and why is he behind in Kentucky? It’s not because they like Romney,” Briscoe said.

Kentucky has never been in play in the election. In May’s Democratic primary, Obama only beat “uncommitted“ by 58 percent to 42 percent.

In fact, only about 10 states are believed to be in play in this year’s presidential race.

The poll found that Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, leads Obama in Kentucky among men and women, in all age groups, among those who say they are tea party members and those who aren’t, those who are conservative and those who oppose abortion rights.

THE COURIER-JOURNAL BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on telephone interviews and Internet surveys conducted Sept. 11 through 13 with 606 likely Kentucky voters by SurveyUSA. Seventy-six percent answered a recorded questionnaire on their home phones, while 24 percent, who were pre-screened on cellphones, replied to written surveys sent over the Internet.

The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. Percentages based on subsamples are subject to a higher potential margin of error.
In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.

He also leads among Republicans, independents, evangelical Christians, gun owners and those who earn more than $40,000 per year.

Romney leads in all regions of the state and had an edge among people no matter their level of education — although his lead among people with college degrees is within the poll’s margin of error.

Obama leads among Democrats and liberals. He also has a narrow advantage among those who consider themselves moderates, but that lead is within the poll’s margin of error. He’s also ahead among people who don’t own guns and those who favor abortion rights.

Obama and Romney are in a statistical tie among those who earn less than $40,000 per year.

The poll found that 24 percent of Democrats said they will cross party lines and vote for Romney while only 6 percent of Republicans said they will back Obama.

When Romney voters were asked if they were voting more “for” Romney or “against” Obama, 57 percent said they were voting more against Obama.

In comparison, 82 percent of Obama backers said they were voting more for Obama than against Romney.
Public opinion

Deborah Novgorodoff, 58, said she is a big supporter of Obama because “I trust his decision-making. He’s not one to shoot from the hip.”

She said she likes Obama’s position on environmental issues and “leaving a legacy of a good Earth.” She also favors his plan on using tax increases to help balance the budget and believes that he is experienced at foreign affairs.

And Novgorodoff, who owns a small market research business, believes Republicans have thwarted Obama’s attempts to get the economy moving again — although she said she and her husband are better off now than they were four years ago.

“I think we would be seeing better results if more of Obama’s policies were really implemented,” she said.

George Gain, a 47-year-old retired Army sergeant living in LaRue County, said that his vote is more about Obama than Romney, even though he says he agrees with Romney on many issues.

Gain said he doesn’t believe Obama has been truthful about unemployment, believes the recent attacks on U.S. diplomatic missions in north Africa and the Middle East are a sign of Obama’s weakness and he hasn’t proved he was born in the U.S.

“His propaganda machine has not truly answered if he’s an American citizen,” Gain said. “In my opinion, he’s not who he portrays himself to be.”

While he said that he doesn’t agree with Romney on religion — Romney is a Mormon — he sides with him on other issues. “I’m against abortion and I’m very conservative.”

Meanwhile, respondents expressed concern about the direction the nation is heading and Obama’s ability to deal with the economy.

Sixty percent of respondents said that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, while only 30 percent said the opposite.

And 59 percent of respondents said they disapprove of the job Obama is doing, while 38 percent said they approve.

When asked who can do a better job handling the federal deficit, 49 percent said Romney and 36 percent Obama. When asked who has the better economic plan, 50 percent said Romney and 36 percent Obama.

The best news in the poll for Obama came when people were asked who is more in touch with average working people — Obama got 44 percent to Romney’s 41 percent.

But Obama trails in all four regions of the state as defined by SurveyUSA — and by double digits in all but north-central Kentucky, which includes 31 counties and runs from Oldham County, along the Ohio River to Ashland, then southwest to Lincoln County.
Romney's strength

In the Louisville area — a 14-county area that runs to Breckinridge County in the west, Shelby in the east and Green County in the south — Romney leads 52 percent to 42 percent.

Romney holds his biggest lead in Eastern Kentucky, where Obama has been criticized heavily for his administration’s position on coal mining.

Dewey Clayton, a political science professor at the University of Louisville, said the coal issue is definitely hurting Obama in that part of the state.

“Clearly they perceive the regulations and whatnot costing them jobs, and jobs are a paramount concern to these people,” Clayton said. “It’s a strong message that’s being sent.”



Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home