SURVEYUSA poll: Fletcher & Beshear lead, but election outcomes depend on "undecideds"!
Sorry, I am just posting now as I was VERY busy all day yesterday, but here we go.
The long awaited SURVEYUSA poll, which asks voters who they'll vote for if they were standing in the voting booth today, is out. Though it shows Fletcher (and as I predicted) Beshear leading in both the Republican and Democratic primaries, I am of the opinion that the key to ANYONE winning depends on whose side the UNDECIDEDS swing towards. This is because, when the margins of error (of 4.4% for the Republicans in a pool of 511 primary likely voters and 3.8% in a pool of 676 primary likely voters for the Democrats) are factored in with the polls "natural deviation" tendency of 2 to 3% (my observation), plus the UNDECIDED voters (who comprise 8% for the Republicans and 9% for the Democrats), you get an election on both political sides that WILL be decided by -- the UNDECIDEDS! So the candidates need to CONCENTRATE on converting the UNDECIDEDS and getting their supporters out (as less than 15% will be voting)!!
Here are the poll's RAW number percentages:
For Republicans: Fletcher (44%); Northup (34%); and Harper (14%).
For Democrats: Beshear (32%); Lunsford (23%); Henry (18%); Richards (12%); Galbraith (5%); and Hemsley (1%).
Another SURVEYUSA poll is expected next Monday, and if there are still UNDECIDEDS we need to find out who they are and ship them off to SIBERIA!!! Just kidding, folks!!!!
A new wrinkle has crept into the poll method, which has some people, including Steve Henry, questioning the poll's validity because it is automated. I don't believe the automation affects the poll's validity but I'm willing to hear your thoughts on this and my analysis of the results.
The long awaited SURVEYUSA poll, which asks voters who they'll vote for if they were standing in the voting booth today, is out. Though it shows Fletcher (and as I predicted) Beshear leading in both the Republican and Democratic primaries, I am of the opinion that the key to ANYONE winning depends on whose side the UNDECIDEDS swing towards. This is because, when the margins of error (of 4.4% for the Republicans in a pool of 511 primary likely voters and 3.8% in a pool of 676 primary likely voters for the Democrats) are factored in with the polls "natural deviation" tendency of 2 to 3% (my observation), plus the UNDECIDED voters (who comprise 8% for the Republicans and 9% for the Democrats), you get an election on both political sides that WILL be decided by -- the UNDECIDEDS! So the candidates need to CONCENTRATE on converting the UNDECIDEDS and getting their supporters out (as less than 15% will be voting)!!
Here are the poll's RAW number percentages:
For Republicans: Fletcher (44%); Northup (34%); and Harper (14%).
For Democrats: Beshear (32%); Lunsford (23%); Henry (18%); Richards (12%); Galbraith (5%); and Hemsley (1%).
Another SURVEYUSA poll is expected next Monday, and if there are still UNDECIDEDS we need to find out who they are and ship them off to SIBERIA!!! Just kidding, folks!!!!
A new wrinkle has crept into the poll method, which has some people, including Steve Henry, questioning the poll's validity because it is automated. I don't believe the automation affects the poll's validity but I'm willing to hear your thoughts on this and my analysis of the results.
Labels: Democratism, Kentucky politics, Polling, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 7:15 AM
5 Comments:
The only one of the pollsters who don't use automated and/or internet polling is the group that Northup is using. She isn't talking.
As for the undecideds, we're looking at single-digit (possibly) voter turnout. Undecideds will likely stay home.
If all the undecideds went for Northup, she'd still lose. So how will the race be determined by undecideds?
Remember the poll's margin of error?
I remember the margin of error? What's your point? The margin could mean that there are 4% undecided and Fletcher has 48%. Based on the poll, undecideds are to few to help Northup, and will not decide the race.
It could mean that ANY of the candidates has the margin of error, meaning like you said Fletcher could indeed be at 48.4% (or 39.6%), or Northup could be at 38.4 (or 29.6%), or Harper could be at 18.4% (or 9.6%), since the margin of error CUTS BOTH ways -- to add or detract from the totals!
So when the margin of error is factored into the 9% UNDECIDEDS, you understand how they HOLD THE KEY to the election!! The UNDECIDEDS could help INCREASE (or decrease) Fletcher's lead or HELP INCREASE (or decrease) the others' percentages.
As for Northup, IF (emphasis on IF) she gets ALL the UNDECIDES (who add 9% to her score), she gets 34 + 9 = 43%. With Fletcher's 44%, it makes the election, a statistical dead heat (within the margin of error!!
That's why I concluded the candidates need the UNDECIDEDS' votes (for Fletcher to solidify his front runner status and for Northup to catch up to him)!!!
Post a Comment
<< Home