SURVEYUSA poll: Fletcher opens up lead over Northup as Lunsford & Beshear zip to run-off.
According to the latest SURVEYUSA poll of 421 likely Republican primary voters, which ranks the candidates against each other, Fletcher has opened up a 12% lead over Northup. The poll, which has a margin of error of 4.9%, shows that 46% of primary voters prefer Fletcher, while 34% prefer Northup and 14% will take Harper (5% are STILL undecided!)
Adding the 5% error rate, plus what I consider to be the survey's NATURAL deviation based on past trend of 2 to 4% either way, you find that, in the most optimistic projection, Northup is STILL down by around 3 to 4%.
Therefore, the way it stands NOW and if the election was held today and UNLESS something changes between now and election day -- REMEMBER: there are 21 days before the election and the voters were asked "if the election was held today and you were standing in the booth" -- it looks like Republicans will NOT have a run-off election as I had previously predicted here. And unless that change happens in Mrs. Northup's favor, like Harper dropping out and endorsing Northup (unlikely) or her campaign getting much needed quick traction, Fletcher will coast to victory as the Republican nominee on the 22nd.
And for the Democrats, Lunsford (29%) and Beshear (23%) appear to be zipping to a Democratic run-off (Dan Mongiardo is really helping that ticket based on information I have gathered), with Henry (18%) "breathing down their necks", in a SURVEYUSA poll (with margin of error of 4% and 7% UNDECIDEDS) of 612 likely Democratic voters.
Update: Blue Grass Red State has a take on the poll. You may read it here. I will also post others as they become available. Until then, what think you?
Update #2: Kentucky Progress says "the gig is up".
Update #3, 5/3 at 8:31 a. m.: Mark Hebert has a great take on the survey results.
Adding the 5% error rate, plus what I consider to be the survey's NATURAL deviation based on past trend of 2 to 4% either way, you find that, in the most optimistic projection, Northup is STILL down by around 3 to 4%.
Therefore, the way it stands NOW and if the election was held today and UNLESS something changes between now and election day -- REMEMBER: there are 21 days before the election and the voters were asked "if the election was held today and you were standing in the booth" -- it looks like Republicans will NOT have a run-off election as I had previously predicted here. And unless that change happens in Mrs. Northup's favor, like Harper dropping out and endorsing Northup (unlikely) or her campaign getting much needed quick traction, Fletcher will coast to victory as the Republican nominee on the 22nd.
And for the Democrats, Lunsford (29%) and Beshear (23%) appear to be zipping to a Democratic run-off (Dan Mongiardo is really helping that ticket based on information I have gathered), with Henry (18%) "breathing down their necks", in a SURVEYUSA poll (with margin of error of 4% and 7% UNDECIDEDS) of 612 likely Democratic voters.
Update: Blue Grass Red State has a take on the poll. You may read it here. I will also post others as they become available. Until then, what think you?
Update #2: Kentucky Progress says "the gig is up".
Update #3, 5/3 at 8:31 a. m.: Mark Hebert has a great take on the survey results.
Labels: Democratism, Kentucky politics, Polling, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 7:15 PM
2 Comments:
Interestingly, this puts the SurveyUSA poll and the Terrance Group poll within each-other's margin of error. IF Beshear and Lunsford go into a run-off, expect four more years of Fletcher. I say this because these two will be unable to "keep the gloves on" for the last kick to the finish of the runoff. They'll destroy one another's credibility.
I trust the SURVEYUSA poll BETTER, though its accuracy STILL has, in my humble opinion, anywhere from 2 to 3% NATURAL error rate in addition to the stated margin of error.
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