*** Fletcher's campaign message is NOT resonating outside of his base of support! ***
According to the new Herald-Leader/Action News 36 Election Poll previously reported on here, Fletcher's campaign messages are falling on deaf ears outside of his base of support.
Here, excerpted, is John Stamper's report on it:
The list of failed campaign messages is long:
* Fletcher says Democratic challenger Steve Beshear’s values don’t match those of most Kentuckians. According to the telephone survey of 600 likely voters, 44 percent disagree, while 42 percent agree with the governor.
"Man does that say it all," said Del Ali, president of the Olney, Md.-based firm Research 2000 that conducted the poll. "That’s something Fletcher should be up 20 or 25 points on" if he expects to win.
* Fletcher says Beshear acted unethically as a lawyer trying to salvage Kentucky Central Life Insurance Co. Only 38 percent of those surveyed agree, while 47 percent disagree.
Arguments about ethics are "just not credible" coming from Fletcher, who was damaged politically by an investigation of state hiring practices, said Richard Fording, an associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky.
* Fletcher says he deserves another four years in office based on his accomplishments as governor. But 59 percent of those surveyed disapprove of the governor’s job performance, compared to 38 percent who approve.
"The vast majority of Kentuckians are ready for a change," Beshear said in response to Fletcher’s approval rating.
* Fletcher says he pardoned his administration during an investigation of state hiring practices to spare them from a Democratic "witch hunt." According to the poll, 56 percent believe Fletcher’s pardons were unethical, while 36 percent side with Fletcher.
Fletcher’s campaign spokesman, Jason Keller, blamed those numbers on ads from an outside Democratic group that he said only tell half of the hiring investigation story.
The ads, run by a group called Bluegrass Freedom Fund, highlight the fact that a grand jury indicted Fletcher and several key aides and that Fletcher invoked his Fifth Amendment protection against self incrimination when he appeared before a grand jury.
The ads do not note that the charges against Fletcher were dismissed in an agreement the governor signed with Attorney General Greg Stumbo or that the Executive Branch Ethics Commission dropped its investigation of Fletcher, citing a lack of evidence.
"The key part of that story is conveniently left out," Keller said.
The only bright spot for Fletcher in the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, is that a slim plurality of voters agree with Fletcher’s anti-casino stance.
Forty percent of those surveyed agree that casinos will bring more social ills, while 33 percent agree with Beshear that casinos will create needed tax dollars for education and health care.
However, that stance has apparently moved very few voters to Fletcher, given that an overwhelming majority disagree with Fletcher on whether they should get to vote on the issue.
In a Herald-Leader/Action News 36 poll conducted last month, 82 percent of likely voters said they want to vote on the issue.
"Fletcher’s message is resonating, but only with his base," said Michael Baranowski, a political scientist at Northern Kentucky University. "He hasn’t been able to expand his coalition beyond his base and that’s why he’s going to lose."
Exemplifying Baranowski’s analysis is the fact that 73 percent of Republicans surveyed agree that Beshear acted unethically in the Kentucky Central case, while only 9 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Independents agreed.
Further, after watching two weeks of commercials that criticized Beshear’s role in the liquidation of Kentucky Central, the governor managed to sway to his camp only 3 percent of Democrats, 4 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Independents.
Keller concedes that the governor’s message hasn’t gotten through to as many voters as hoped, but he remains optimistic that will change before Nov. 6.
"There’s two weeks left here and the governor is campaigning hard throughout the state," Keller said. "We still have time to communicate the message."
Political observers are more than a little skeptical. "He’s thrown the kitchen sink at Beshear and it didn’t stick," Ali said.
My view? You can blame or praise (depending on where you stand) the 527, Bluegrass Freedom Fund, for their VERY EFFECTIVE ads assault -- more like a German "Blitzkrieg" -- on Fletcher, particularly this DEVASTATING one:
Here, excerpted, is John Stamper's report on it:
The list of failed campaign messages is long:
* Fletcher says Democratic challenger Steve Beshear’s values don’t match those of most Kentuckians. According to the telephone survey of 600 likely voters, 44 percent disagree, while 42 percent agree with the governor.
"Man does that say it all," said Del Ali, president of the Olney, Md.-based firm Research 2000 that conducted the poll. "That’s something Fletcher should be up 20 or 25 points on" if he expects to win.
* Fletcher says Beshear acted unethically as a lawyer trying to salvage Kentucky Central Life Insurance Co. Only 38 percent of those surveyed agree, while 47 percent disagree.
Arguments about ethics are "just not credible" coming from Fletcher, who was damaged politically by an investigation of state hiring practices, said Richard Fording, an associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky.
* Fletcher says he deserves another four years in office based on his accomplishments as governor. But 59 percent of those surveyed disapprove of the governor’s job performance, compared to 38 percent who approve.
"The vast majority of Kentuckians are ready for a change," Beshear said in response to Fletcher’s approval rating.
* Fletcher says he pardoned his administration during an investigation of state hiring practices to spare them from a Democratic "witch hunt." According to the poll, 56 percent believe Fletcher’s pardons were unethical, while 36 percent side with Fletcher.
Fletcher’s campaign spokesman, Jason Keller, blamed those numbers on ads from an outside Democratic group that he said only tell half of the hiring investigation story.
The ads, run by a group called Bluegrass Freedom Fund, highlight the fact that a grand jury indicted Fletcher and several key aides and that Fletcher invoked his Fifth Amendment protection against self incrimination when he appeared before a grand jury.
The ads do not note that the charges against Fletcher were dismissed in an agreement the governor signed with Attorney General Greg Stumbo or that the Executive Branch Ethics Commission dropped its investigation of Fletcher, citing a lack of evidence.
"The key part of that story is conveniently left out," Keller said.
The only bright spot for Fletcher in the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, is that a slim plurality of voters agree with Fletcher’s anti-casino stance.
Forty percent of those surveyed agree that casinos will bring more social ills, while 33 percent agree with Beshear that casinos will create needed tax dollars for education and health care.
However, that stance has apparently moved very few voters to Fletcher, given that an overwhelming majority disagree with Fletcher on whether they should get to vote on the issue.
In a Herald-Leader/Action News 36 poll conducted last month, 82 percent of likely voters said they want to vote on the issue.
"Fletcher’s message is resonating, but only with his base," said Michael Baranowski, a political scientist at Northern Kentucky University. "He hasn’t been able to expand his coalition beyond his base and that’s why he’s going to lose."
Exemplifying Baranowski’s analysis is the fact that 73 percent of Republicans surveyed agree that Beshear acted unethically in the Kentucky Central case, while only 9 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Independents agreed.
Further, after watching two weeks of commercials that criticized Beshear’s role in the liquidation of Kentucky Central, the governor managed to sway to his camp only 3 percent of Democrats, 4 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Independents.
Keller concedes that the governor’s message hasn’t gotten through to as many voters as hoped, but he remains optimistic that will change before Nov. 6.
"There’s two weeks left here and the governor is campaigning hard throughout the state," Keller said. "We still have time to communicate the message."
Political observers are more than a little skeptical. "He’s thrown the kitchen sink at Beshear and it didn’t stick," Ali said.
My view? You can blame or praise (depending on where you stand) the 527, Bluegrass Freedom Fund, for their VERY EFFECTIVE ads assault -- more like a German "Blitzkrieg" -- on Fletcher, particularly this DEVASTATING one:
Labels: Bearing false witness, Keeping them honest
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 10:21 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home