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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

***** SURVEYUSA poll: Beshear leads Fletcher by 20 percentage points! *****

The new SurveyUSA poll shows Steve Beshear leading Fletcher by 20 percentage points, or Beshear's 58% to Fletcher's 38%, with a few days to go before the election.

As Caleb Brown said today, in his piece about gambling, "Barring an as-yet-unrevealed skeleton in the closet, it seems clear that attorney Steve Beshear will be serving in the Kentucky governor's mansion by the end of the year."

Though the results of the poll have not being made public yet, Mark Hebert of WHAS11, has the inside scoop and here's what he's reporting:

BAD NEWS THIS AFTERNOON FOR GOVERNOR ERNIE FLETCHER'S RE-ELECTION CHANCES.

A NEW SURVEY U-S-A POLL SHOWS FLETCHER ACTUALLY LOSING GROUND TO STEVE BESHEAR.
WHAS-11'S POLITICAL REPORTER MARK HEBERT IS IN THE NEWSROOM WITH THE DETAILS, MARK --- STILL A COMMANDING LEAD FOR BESHEAR?

ERNIE FLETCHER WAS HOPING HE COULD GAIN MOMENTUM AND CLOSE THE GAP BETWEEN HIMSELF AND STEVE BESHEAR THEN PULL OFF AN ELECTION DAY MIRACLE.

IT APPEARS THAT'S UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN, BASED ON WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE LATEST SURVEY U-S-A/WHAS 11 POLL.

THE POLL TAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWS BESHEAR WITH A 20 POINT LEAD, 58% TO 38% WITH JUST TWO WEEKS TO GO UNTIL ELECTION DAY.

THAT'S A BIGGER LEAD THAN BESHEAR HAD JUST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN SURVEY U-S-A SHOWED THE DEMOCRAT WITH A 16 POINT LEAD.

WHILE FLETCHER SEEMS TO BE SOLIDIFYING HIS SUPPORT AMONG REPUBLICANS, 81 PERCENT OF THE DEMOCRATS POLLED SAY THEY PLAN TO VOTE FOR BESHEAR. AND THERE ARE MANY MORE DEMOCRATS IN KENTUCKY THAN REPUBLICANS.

BESHEAR LEADS IN ALL REGIONS OF THE STATE AND HAS A TWO TO ONE LEAD AMONG VOTERS IN LOUISVILLE AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES.

ACCORDING TO SURVEY U-S-A, THE VAST MAJORITY OF KENTUCKY VOTERS HAVEN'T BUDGED SINCE MAY MEANING SOMETHING DRAMATIC WOULD HAVE TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS FOR FLETCHER TO HAVE A CHANCE.

My take? I PREDICTED AS MUCH ON AN EARLIER POST HERE THAT THE NEW SURVEYUSA POLL BETWEEN FLETCHER AND BESHEAR WILL REFLECT FLETCHER'S DETERIORATING POLL NUMBERS.

Update: Here is the SURVEYUSA poll.

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