Political Columnist Robert Novak's take on Kentucky's Governor's race.

A quick post of Political Columnist Robert Novak's take on Kentucky's Governor race:

Kentucky: For the second straight election, the party in the governor's mansion lost thanks to the incumbent's record of scandal. Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), who had risen to the governor's mansion in the wake of the scandal-filled administration of Gov. Paul Patton (D), lost badly yesterday to former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D).

Fletcher survived a bruising GOP primary, surprisingly beating multiple serious challengers without needing a runoff, but from the first day of the general election campaign, he trailed Beshear badly in the polls. Fletcher never caught up, and he lost 59 percent to 41 percent. Beshear effectively ran a safe campaign, not totally avoiding the issues, but also acting like a front-runner and counting on Fletcher's own record of indictments and guilty pleas to bring him down.

Statewide turnout was 37 percent, reflecting the sense that Beshear had the race won, but also reflecting the disdain towards Fletcher of the majority of GOP voters who opposed him in the primary earlier this year. The race was mostly about Fletcher, but there are some broader implications. The state has shifted towards Democrats in recent years, as has much of the neighboring region along the Ohio River. In 2004, Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) almost lost his re-election here and a Democrat won Fletcher's House seat. In 2006, Rep. Anne Northup (R-Ky.) was knocked off by a Democrat.

This Midwestern realignment is key for the Democrats, but unlike the suburban realignment (see Virginia, below), it is not permanent, and Republicans can undo it.