SURVEYUSA Poll: Senators David Boswell And Brett Guthrie In "Statistical Dead Heat" (47% To 44%) In Race To Replace Retiring Congressman, Ron Lewis.

Read about the poll results here.

Below is the Pollster's filtering:

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District 06/27/08 through 06/29/08; of the adults, 753 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 545 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election.

and the analysis:

Democrat Boswell Breaks from Gate Even in Once 'Safe' KY2 GOP House District: In an election for US House of Representatives in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District today, 06/30/08, to fill the seat of retiring incumbent Republican Ron Lewis, Democrat David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie begin July effectively even, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV new poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Boswell 47%, Guthrie 44%, within the survey's 4.3 percentage point margin of sampling error. Both candidates are state Senators. Among women, Boswell leads by 6 points; among men, the two candidates tie. Conservatives back Guthrie 3:1; moderates back Boswell 2:1. Incumbent Lewis, first elected to the House in 1994, is not seeking an eighth term. Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District, rated "Solid R" by the Cook Political Report, has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13. Lewis won with 55% of the vote in 2006 and with 68% of the vote in 2004. Before Lewis, Democrat William Natcher held the seat for 40 years.

Editor's comment:

The poll shows David Boswell leading among the all important "moderate" group.

In reality, though, I suspect David Boswell is enjoying a name recognition at this point in the game where both candidates (more especially, Brett Guthrie) have NOT yet run any TV ads yet.

We will need to see a more accurate picture from a poll taken once both parties start running TV ads, where (and when) I expect Brett Guthrie to make up ground QUICKLY.