SURVEYUSA Poll: Brett Guthrie Leads David Boswell By 51% To 42%. I Guess Those "Negative" Ads Are Going To Cost You The Electon, Eh, David?

Read the cross tabs of the poll, and the poll's analysis and filter below:

Republican Guthrie Positioned to Hold Open House Seat in KY2 for GOP: In an election for US House of Representatives in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District today, 10/17/08, to fill the open seat of retiring incumbent Republican Ron Lewis, Republican Brett Guthrie defeats Democrat David Boswell 51% to 42%, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV new poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Guthrie is up 2 points; Boswell is down 1. This 3-point net gain for Guthrie comes at a time when many Republicans across the country were losing ground and Democrats were benefiting from Obama coattails. No such evidence in KY2.

Three times as many Democrats cross-over to vote for the Republican as Republicans who cross-over to vote for the Democrat. Guthrie leads by 10 points among men, by 7 among women. Among voters age 18 to 49, Guthrie leads by 13; among voters 50+, Guthrie leads by 4.

Incumbent Lewis, first elected to the House in 1994, is not seeking an eighth term. Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District, rated "Solid R" by the Cook Political Report, has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13. Lewis won with 55% of the vote in 2006 and with 68% of the vote in 2004. Before Lewis, Democrat William Natcher held the seat for 40 years.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District 10/15/08 and 10/17/08; of the adults, 677 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 599 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election.