Could It Be Jefferson County, Kentucky, Could Have A Republican Mayor? Yep; Hal Heiner Is Tied In Poll With Greg Fischer. Steve Pence Was My Choice!

Greg Fischer, Hal Heiner in dead heat in race for Louisville mayor, Bluegrass Poll finds
By Dan Klepal

Three months before the election, the race to become Louisville's next mayor couldn't be closer, according to a Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll.

Democrat Greg Fischer and Republican Hal Heiner evenly split the support of 538 likely Jefferson County voters surveyed July 29 through Aug. 1 by SurveyUSA.

Each candidate received the support of 45 percent of respondents who were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today.

Four percent were undecided, with the rest supporting two independent candidates in the race.

The poll, which has a 4.3 percentage point margin of error, is the first to gauge support in the mayor's race since the May 18 primary.

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Neither Fischer nor Heiner said they were surprised at the results.

“It reflects what we're hearing in the field,” said Heiner, a Metro Council member. “Voters in Jefferson County have historically shown a willingness to vote for the candidate, rather than the party.”

Fischer said his campaign is braced for a “very competitive” race and expressed confidence that he will surge this fall.

“I'm confident as people get to know me better, they'll start coming my way,” Fischer said. “We'll be just fine.”

Independent candidate Jackie Green, who has participated in dozens of mayoral forums this year, received the support of 3 percent of the poll's respondents. University of Louisville professor and coffee-shop owner Nimbus Couzin, who has not campaigned, received 2 percent.

Independent candidate Jerry T. Mills, who filed paperwork Monday with the Jefferson County Clerk's Office to be on the ballot, was not included because he was not officially in the race when the poll was conducted.

Green said it will take time for his name to rise in the polls. He said he plans to continue emphasizing his view that Fischer and Heiner have essentially the same platform on major issues such as bridge tolling, development and transportation.

“As the public understands that there is essentially no difference between Democratic and Republican candidates, these numbers will change,” he said.

Couzin did not respond to an e-mail message seeking comment and couldn't be reached by telephone.

Democratic political strategist Danny Briscoe said the poll results are surprising because 59 percent of registered voters in Jefferson County are Democrats and 32 percent are Republicans. Eight percent of registered voters identify themselves as “other.”

“Everything I know and common sense tells me Fischer should be ahead,” Briscoe said. “It's really good news for Hal Heiner, and not particularly good news for Fischer.”

Robert Russell, a 57-year-old Highlands resident and registered Democrat who was among those polled and agreed to a follow-up interview, said he has consistently voted for Mayor Jerry Abramson, a Democrat who isn't seeking re-election, during his five mayoral campaigns. But Russell said he's leaning Heiner's way.

“I think he's got some good ideas, and he's got a little bit more experience in terms of city planning,” Russell said.

Poll respondent Joe Watzek, a 62-year-old Prospect resident, said he put a Fischer campaign sign in his yard before the primary. A former Jefferson County government employee, Watzek said he pays close attention to local politics and voted for Fischer in the primary because he didn't like the other Democrats in that race.

And he'll probably stick with Fischer in the general election.

“It's going to take a lot to swing me away from him,” Watzek said. “We've got to get people working, and we've got to make (Louisville) an attractive place to bring business in here.”

Despite the dead heat, the poll showed sharp divisions between the two candidates in several demographic groups:

Heiner has a 17-point lead among men, while Fischer holds an 18-point lead among women.

Fischer drew the support of 10 percent of Republicans, while 21 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Heiner.

Gun owners prefer Heiner by 18 percentage points, while those who do not own a gun prefer Fischer by 19 points.

Abortion opponents favor Heiner over Fischer by 35 percentage points; those who favor abortion rights support Fischer by 33 points.

Heiner has an 8-point lead among whites; Fischer has a 57-point lead among blacks.

Heiner has la 66-point lead among voters who hold a favorable opinion of the tea-party movement, which favors smaller government and lower taxes. Fischer has an identical lead among those with an unfavorable view of the movement.

University of Louisville political science professor Dewey Clayton said being tied in the poll with Heiner should be “troublesome” to Fischer.

But, he added, voters could change their minds in the weeks and months ahead.

“We're talking about two candidates who haven't really differentiated themselves a whole lot,” Clayton said. “These days a week is an eternity, and we've still got a few months before the election. Time will tell.”