Rasmussen Poll Confirms SurveyUSA Poll, Finds Rand Paul Leads Jack Conway 53% To 41%, Changes Outlook From Lean To SOLID Republican.

Election 2010: Kentucky Senate
Kentucky Senate: Paul (R) Enjoys Double Digit Lead

Following the uproar over Democrat Jack Conway’s ad criticizing his opponent’s college antics and questioning his religious faith, Republican Rand Paul has taken a 12-point lead in Kentucky’s bitter U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state, taken Wednesday night, shows Paul with 53% support to Conway’s 41%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

After narrowing somewhat last week, the race moves back to where it’s been for most of the year. As a result, it’s moving back from Leans Republican to Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. In 12 surveys prior to last week, Paul had led by seven to 15 points each time, earning 46% to 59% of the vote. Conway, Kentucky’s current attorney general, picked up 34% to 42% support in those same surveys.

The candidates held their final debate on Monday night, and Democrats are now trying to capitalize on a violent incident outside the debate involving a Paul supporter and an liberal activist. Former President Clinton is scheduled to come to the state on Monday to campaign for Conway.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on October 27, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.