Northup commissioned poll has her and Fletcher tied, Harper a distant third.
The Anne Northup/Jeff Hoover ticket has commissioned a poll to gauge the ticket's matchup against Gov. Fletcher in the primary election and against two potential Democratic ticket winners in the fall general election. Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the statewide poll of 500 likely primary voters on Jan. 28-29, 2007 (with an error rate of +_4.38% of 95 out of 100 cases), has both Anne Northup and Gov. Fletcher tied at 39%, Billy Harper at 10%, and 12% of voters undecided. In a similar poll conducted on Jan. 29-30 for the general election, according to Bolger, the following margins appeared (with Northup within the margin of error):
(The first column is the GOP, Dem is next, then Margin).
Northup-Hoover vs. Richards-Brown 39% 45% -6%
Fletcher-Rudolph vs. Richards-Brown 32% 53% -21%
Northup-Hoover vs. Lunsford-Stumbo 40% 45% -5%
Fletcher-Rudolph vs. Lunsford-Stumbo 36% 50% -14%
I consider the absence of other Democratic tickets in the poll results to mean that the Richards/Brown is shown by the poll results to be the Democrat's STRONGEST ticket now -- as I predicted here in my blog post: Richards follows Henry and Galbraith into race. Jody Richards is the only candidate I described as "strong" in the Democratic field -- (and to my surprise the Lunsford/Stumbo ticket the second). Or could the released information be hiding some strengths of the other tickets, though it is highly unlikely? I shall post the results of any other candidate's (for Governor only) polls as soon as those become available. Stay tuned.
(The first column is the GOP, Dem is next, then Margin).
Northup-Hoover vs. Richards-Brown 39% 45% -6%
Fletcher-Rudolph vs. Richards-Brown 32% 53% -21%
Northup-Hoover vs. Lunsford-Stumbo 40% 45% -5%
Fletcher-Rudolph vs. Lunsford-Stumbo 36% 50% -14%
I consider the absence of other Democratic tickets in the poll results to mean that the Richards/Brown is shown by the poll results to be the Democrat's STRONGEST ticket now -- as I predicted here in my blog post: Richards follows Henry and Galbraith into race. Jody Richards is the only candidate I described as "strong" in the Democratic field -- (and to my surprise the Lunsford/Stumbo ticket the second). Or could the released information be hiding some strengths of the other tickets, though it is highly unlikely? I shall post the results of any other candidate's (for Governor only) polls as soon as those become available. Stay tuned.
Labels: Democratism, Kentucky politics, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 12:29 PM
2 Comments:
I heard that Mike Buchanon is now trying to get in touch with Anne Northup so he can endorse her too?
After spending nearly $3 million, and with the other two candidates yet to start their TV campaign, Harper is still only at 10% of the vote.
One of his main problems (he has others)is his Lt. Governor candidate, Wilson. Wilson is a good man, but there are many good men in Kentucky who should not be governor. Harper races cars, things happen. A car or airplane crash, heart problems, etc. I pray these things do happen, but things can happen. Anyone running for Lt. Governor, could become governor. Who is Wilson and what kind of job could he do as governor? How will he do in the Lt. Governor debates?
How many votes does Wilson bring to the Harper-Wilson ticket? None. Harper and Wilson are friends, live near each other and therefore have nearly the same friends. A Lt. Governor candidate should bring additional votes to the ticket. The other two GOP candidates for Lt. Governor do that. The other two tickets have two candidates from different areas of the state. The Harper and Wilson are from the same area, an area that has few Republicans. Gov. Fletcher's running mate is also from that area and cuts into that vote somewhat.
At this point the race between the Gov. Fletcher and Anne Northup is too close to call.
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