ADVANTAGES to Fletcher: Five reasons why Fletcher won and others didn't.
Here are my thoughts on why Fletcher won and the others didn't:
1) Power of incumbency (and the perks of the office -- like the power to make appointments, deliver money, represent the commonwealth and appear (FREE publicity) at events and generate news -- that come with it. Fletcher is just a beneficiary of this and is NOT to be blamed for taking due advantage thereof. Others before him have and others after him will. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
2) Effective campaign. Fletcher ran a VERY effective campaign. He sent mail-outs touting his accomplishments (his opponents didn't send any, not even one contesting his stated accomplishments. For those who prefer personal contact and who had no other means of gathering candidate information, this proved BIG); and, his TV commercials, which suggested that Anne Northup was both against guns (which gave the impression that she was soft on crime, though in reality she received an A rating from the National Rifle Association) and school prayer (which gave the impression that she was a "Godless" Liberal, though she voted for school prayer 12 other times and had an A rating from the Christian Coalition) were NEVER EFFECTIVELY rebutted. Instead the ads had Northup going on the defensive, rather than point out these POSITIVES! Both of these issues are VERY STRONG CONSERVATIVE Republican Primary issues that Fletcher masterfully exploited against Northup. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
3) The anti-Greg Stumbo FEVERISH resentment amongst the GOP. Unbeknown to many Republicans, count some of our federal delegation here, there was a HUGE anti-Stumbo sentiment out there that reached a feverish pitch. Many people confessed to me that they did NOT want to give Stumbo the satisfaction of knowing that he helped defeat Fletcher, and they prevailed. So Fletcher can thank Stumbo on this issue. Ironically, Tuesday's election left Greg Stumbo "out in the cold", politically speaking. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
4) Liberal newspaper endorsement. Continuing their track record, the Liberal newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader, are viewed with suspicion by the hard core GOP Conservatives who are primary voters. Once a Conservative is endorsed by those two newspapers, as Anne Northup was, Conservatives vote AGAINST that candidate. So Anne Northup (and Tim Coleman, for Attorney General (who was also endorsed by the Herald-Leader) lost. ADVANTAGE FLETCHER.
5) Name recognition. Fletcher CLEARLY had the advantage here. As Governor and former candidate, he had SOLID STATEWIDE name recognition. Though some of it wasn't so good, thanks to the news media, as Northup tried to exploit to urge for a change in administration, it was there. Some advantage to Northup resulted from this name disadvantage, but Northup's recognition was SOLID in Louisville, but very LIMITED elsewhere. She succeeded in building some name recognition, but it was not enough to overcome Fletcher's. Harper, on the other hand, fared even WORSE and attempts to "buy" name recognition proved WOEFUL, primarily because he started spending FREELY before anyone paid attention to the race. When voters finally payed attention, all they heard was about his race car. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
What do you think?
Update: As I was writing this piece, I went to check my mail and you would NOT guess what I found. Two mail-outs from the Northup campaingn that came to me a FULL day AFTER the polls had closed. I wonder how many others received theirs BELATEDLY too!!
1) Power of incumbency (and the perks of the office -- like the power to make appointments, deliver money, represent the commonwealth and appear (FREE publicity) at events and generate news -- that come with it. Fletcher is just a beneficiary of this and is NOT to be blamed for taking due advantage thereof. Others before him have and others after him will. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
2) Effective campaign. Fletcher ran a VERY effective campaign. He sent mail-outs touting his accomplishments (his opponents didn't send any, not even one contesting his stated accomplishments. For those who prefer personal contact and who had no other means of gathering candidate information, this proved BIG); and, his TV commercials, which suggested that Anne Northup was both against guns (which gave the impression that she was soft on crime, though in reality she received an A rating from the National Rifle Association) and school prayer (which gave the impression that she was a "Godless" Liberal, though she voted for school prayer 12 other times and had an A rating from the Christian Coalition) were NEVER EFFECTIVELY rebutted. Instead the ads had Northup going on the defensive, rather than point out these POSITIVES! Both of these issues are VERY STRONG CONSERVATIVE Republican Primary issues that Fletcher masterfully exploited against Northup. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
3) The anti-Greg Stumbo FEVERISH resentment amongst the GOP. Unbeknown to many Republicans, count some of our federal delegation here, there was a HUGE anti-Stumbo sentiment out there that reached a feverish pitch. Many people confessed to me that they did NOT want to give Stumbo the satisfaction of knowing that he helped defeat Fletcher, and they prevailed. So Fletcher can thank Stumbo on this issue. Ironically, Tuesday's election left Greg Stumbo "out in the cold", politically speaking. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
4) Liberal newspaper endorsement. Continuing their track record, the Liberal newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader, are viewed with suspicion by the hard core GOP Conservatives who are primary voters. Once a Conservative is endorsed by those two newspapers, as Anne Northup was, Conservatives vote AGAINST that candidate. So Anne Northup (and Tim Coleman, for Attorney General (who was also endorsed by the Herald-Leader) lost. ADVANTAGE FLETCHER.
5) Name recognition. Fletcher CLEARLY had the advantage here. As Governor and former candidate, he had SOLID STATEWIDE name recognition. Though some of it wasn't so good, thanks to the news media, as Northup tried to exploit to urge for a change in administration, it was there. Some advantage to Northup resulted from this name disadvantage, but Northup's recognition was SOLID in Louisville, but very LIMITED elsewhere. She succeeded in building some name recognition, but it was not enough to overcome Fletcher's. Harper, on the other hand, fared even WORSE and attempts to "buy" name recognition proved WOEFUL, primarily because he started spending FREELY before anyone paid attention to the race. When voters finally payed attention, all they heard was about his race car. ADVANTAGE Fletcher.
What do you think?
Update: As I was writing this piece, I went to check my mail and you would NOT guess what I found. Two mail-outs from the Northup campaingn that came to me a FULL day AFTER the polls had closed. I wonder how many others received theirs BELATEDLY too!!
Labels: Kentucky politics, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 10:38 AM
1 Comments:
Northup's entrance into the gubernatorial race was ill-advised. I suspect she was given poor advise by someone, telling her Fletcher was somehow vulnerable. Right on the heels of her defeat at the hands of (the inestimably bland and step'n'fetchit Democrat) Yarmuth, she pulled the trigger too soon on another campaign. Running for US House is very different from running for Kentucky governor. A wider constiuency, an executive as opposed to legislative office, significantly different voter expectations--it all added up to almost certain defeat for Northup.
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