SURVEYUSA poll lives up to its reputation for ACCURACY!
The SURVEYUSA poll has, once again, lived up to its EARNED reputation for polling accuracy, in my HUMBLE opinion. How? Well compare the latest poll's predictions with what ACTUALLY took place in the voting booth:
For Republicans:
predicted actual undecideds Margin of error
Fletcher 44% 50% 5% 4.6%
Northup 34% 37% 5% 4.6%
Harper 17% 13% 5% 4.6
So what happened in the Republican Primary election? I believe that Fletcher, "the Comeback Kid" according to KY Senate President David Williams, picked up ALL the undecideds (who gave him the benefit of the doubt regarding any questionable conduct). As I had predicted, the key to victory depended on those "undecided" votes. Northup managed, though, to pluck 4% of Billy Harper's votes, I suspect because his supporters were persuaded to conclude that he couldn't win!
Democrats:
Beshear 32% 40% 6% 4%
Lunsford 21% 23% 6% 4%
Henry 17% 17% 6% 4%
Richards 13% 12% 6% 4%
Galbraith 7% 6% 6% 4%
Hemsley 1% 1% 6% 4%
It is CLEAR also, as was the case for the Republican Primary, that Beshear was able to pick up ALL of the undecided votes, once it became obvious to the voters that he was going to win. In addition, some of Lunsford's supporters (2% of them) and Richard's supporters (about 1% of them) decided either that they wanted to join a winning ticket or to help avoid a Democratic runoff and switched their support to Beshear to give him the 40% he needed.
Moreover, the poll's predictions were WITHIN the margin's of error for ALL the candidates, with the exceptions of Fletcher's and Beshear's late surges, fueled by the undecided voters.
ALL in ALL, the SURVEYUSA poll is VERY ACCURATE as I have been touting on this blog (yes, you can call what I'm doing here a blog -- I won't be offended, I promise).
GREAT job, guys at SURVEYUSA!
Your opinions are welcomed.
Note: I will be posting my thoughts on why the winners won, and the others lost. Stay tuned.
For Republicans:
predicted actual undecideds Margin of error
Fletcher 44% 50% 5% 4.6%
Northup 34% 37% 5% 4.6%
Harper 17% 13% 5% 4.6
So what happened in the Republican Primary election? I believe that Fletcher, "the Comeback Kid" according to KY Senate President David Williams, picked up ALL the undecideds (who gave him the benefit of the doubt regarding any questionable conduct). As I had predicted, the key to victory depended on those "undecided" votes. Northup managed, though, to pluck 4% of Billy Harper's votes, I suspect because his supporters were persuaded to conclude that he couldn't win!
Democrats:
Beshear 32% 40% 6% 4%
Lunsford 21% 23% 6% 4%
Henry 17% 17% 6% 4%
Richards 13% 12% 6% 4%
Galbraith 7% 6% 6% 4%
Hemsley 1% 1% 6% 4%
It is CLEAR also, as was the case for the Republican Primary, that Beshear was able to pick up ALL of the undecided votes, once it became obvious to the voters that he was going to win. In addition, some of Lunsford's supporters (2% of them) and Richard's supporters (about 1% of them) decided either that they wanted to join a winning ticket or to help avoid a Democratic runoff and switched their support to Beshear to give him the 40% he needed.
Moreover, the poll's predictions were WITHIN the margin's of error for ALL the candidates, with the exceptions of Fletcher's and Beshear's late surges, fueled by the undecided voters.
ALL in ALL, the SURVEYUSA poll is VERY ACCURATE as I have been touting on this blog (yes, you can call what I'm doing here a blog -- I won't be offended, I promise).
GREAT job, guys at SURVEYUSA!
Your opinions are welcomed.
Note: I will be posting my thoughts on why the winners won, and the others lost. Stay tuned.
Labels: Blogging, Democratism, Kentucky politics, Polling, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 9:27 AM
3 Comments:
Osi: I am not offended when someone calls CE a blog. I just point out that they are wrong.
I blog on CE, but CE is a new business model. We have incorporated blog technology into our site. We get to set the rules because we can.
By the way, why do you think that all businesses protect their product identity's. You wouldn't blame Coca-Cola for responding if you called Coke a "sports drink",
Why is is a source of contention if I defend our product?
Anyway, thanks for all you do.
Brian Goettl
There is NO "source of contention" from here, but I made the point based on some of discussion I have read on the topic! Thanks for all you do, too.
Oh brother...give me a break. It's a freakin blog. And not a particularly good one.
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