New SURVEYUSA polls are out on Fletcher vs. Beshear, McConnell, Bunning and Fletcher alone.
The latest and New SURVEYUSA poll results are out. This first one pits Ernie Fletcher against Steve Beshear. It was taken after the primary (of course) with data collected between 5/23 and 5/24.
The poll has Fletcher at 34% and Beshear at 62%, with ONLY 4% undecided. View the poll results.
As you can see from the polls, Beshear greatly out paces Fletcher with EVERY group, except for Hispanics. 12% of Democrats and 10% of Liberals plan to vote for Fletcher while 36% of Republicans and 35% of Conservatives will vote for Beshear.
Fletcher doesn't fare well in any of Kentucky's geographic regions, where 2/3rds (or 67%) of the voters do NOT plan to vote for him.
And even more telling is the fact that 20% of those who voted for him in the primary do NOT plan on voting for him in the general election, compared to only 2% of Beshear voters who will not vote for Beshear.
And 40% of those who skipped the primary will vote for Fletcher, while 52% will vote for Beshear.
With gambling as an issue, 64% who want gambling will support Beshear, while 54% of those who do NOT want gambling will STILL vote for him!
Also, so much for party unity, as half of all those who voted for Fletcher's opponents (Anne Northup and Billy Harper) do NOT plan to vote for Fletcher in the general election, unlike roughly 8% of Beshear's opponents' voters who plan NOT to vote for him.
Here are the poll results (date was collected between 5/11 and 5/13 and released on 5/24), for the approval ratings for the Senators, and for Fletcher (whose approval rating poll was released on 5/17):
Senator Mitch McConnell; 54% Approval, 39% Disapprove and 7% are unsure. More SIGNIFICANT for McConnell is that 71% of Republicans and 72% of Conservatives approve of the job he's doing! That should quell any rumors about him drawing a primary opponent.
Senator Jim Bunning; 47% Approval, 43% Disapproval, and 10% are unsure. Despite what you hear out there in the political world, Senator Jim Bunning enjoys a HEALTHY 58% nod from Republicans and 61% from Conservatives. No rumors about any primary challenger(s) any more.
You can view the Senators' poll, if you care for further analysis.
Gov. Ernie Fletcher; 38% Approval, 58% Disapproval and 4% are unsure. Fletcher enjoys a HEALTHY 53% nod from Republicans and 56% from Conservatives, but Democrats (as expected) deny him the nod at 72%. The down side is that Moderates also deny him the nod at 68%. You can view the poll results for further analysis.
With the election about 160 days away, can Fletcher recover?
The poll has Fletcher at 34% and Beshear at 62%, with ONLY 4% undecided. View the poll results.
As you can see from the polls, Beshear greatly out paces Fletcher with EVERY group, except for Hispanics. 12% of Democrats and 10% of Liberals plan to vote for Fletcher while 36% of Republicans and 35% of Conservatives will vote for Beshear.
Fletcher doesn't fare well in any of Kentucky's geographic regions, where 2/3rds (or 67%) of the voters do NOT plan to vote for him.
And even more telling is the fact that 20% of those who voted for him in the primary do NOT plan on voting for him in the general election, compared to only 2% of Beshear voters who will not vote for Beshear.
And 40% of those who skipped the primary will vote for Fletcher, while 52% will vote for Beshear.
With gambling as an issue, 64% who want gambling will support Beshear, while 54% of those who do NOT want gambling will STILL vote for him!
Also, so much for party unity, as half of all those who voted for Fletcher's opponents (Anne Northup and Billy Harper) do NOT plan to vote for Fletcher in the general election, unlike roughly 8% of Beshear's opponents' voters who plan NOT to vote for him.
Here are the poll results (date was collected between 5/11 and 5/13 and released on 5/24), for the approval ratings for the Senators, and for Fletcher (whose approval rating poll was released on 5/17):
Senator Mitch McConnell; 54% Approval, 39% Disapprove and 7% are unsure. More SIGNIFICANT for McConnell is that 71% of Republicans and 72% of Conservatives approve of the job he's doing! That should quell any rumors about him drawing a primary opponent.
Senator Jim Bunning; 47% Approval, 43% Disapproval, and 10% are unsure. Despite what you hear out there in the political world, Senator Jim Bunning enjoys a HEALTHY 58% nod from Republicans and 61% from Conservatives. No rumors about any primary challenger(s) any more.
You can view the Senators' poll, if you care for further analysis.
Gov. Ernie Fletcher; 38% Approval, 58% Disapproval and 4% are unsure. Fletcher enjoys a HEALTHY 53% nod from Republicans and 56% from Conservatives, but Democrats (as expected) deny him the nod at 72%. The down side is that Moderates also deny him the nod at 68%. You can view the poll results for further analysis.
With the election about 160 days away, can Fletcher recover?
Labels: Democratism, Kentucky politics, Polling, Public Service, Republicanism
posted by KYJurisDoctor at 11:05 AM
5 Comments:
The race will tighten considerably and Fletcher has a good chance of pulling it out.
Beshear is riding high this week from his dramatic victory in the low-turnout primary. The negative ads on both sides will be fierce, but Fletcher has already withstood a withering blaze of attack ads; Beshear received a pass in the primary.
Attack ads will reduce turnout, so many who were surveyed in the poll will not vote.
Expanded gambling will become an issue out in the hinterlands as people start to focus on politics in the fall. Right now, with the election five months out, there is no poll that can accurately predict the future dynamic. (Although they may indicate to Fletcher he'd better get his strategy ready, early on...)
You are delusional, nicholasville. This race was over before it even started. 62-34!? Beshear would have to be caught with a dead girl or a live boy before he'd lose to that clown Fletcher. Get over it, and try again in 2011.
Anon at 2:44, you're the one that's dilusional. That poll only sampled 609 "likely" voters out of 2+ million and we're still 5 1/2 months away. Remember the first polls in the Dem primary when Beshear only had 12%? Once the people of KY get a good look at Beshear's past record and how he's going to save the state with his fantasy plan that involves fantasy money, the tide will turn. Guaranteed. People in KY do not want to build a bridge backwards 20 years, they want to move forward and Beshear is NOT the answer. There is only one of the old regime left in Frankfort that put this state last in almost every category and that's Greg Stumbo and he'll be gone in December. You bring those type back by electing Beshear. He's already appointed the corrupt Miller to head the KDP by breaking the law in what amounts to vote buying. He's already crooked and hasn't even gotten in the Governor's mansion. Also, how is Miller going to do his job he was elected to do over the next 6 months when he's got a full time job at the KDP? Wow, some people never cease to amaze me.
Well, this pole was more heavily laden with Republicans than Democrats, which is remarkable. I saw the Northup people saying the same thing at every pole...survey USA was right then...and it's by-goodness right now.
It's over for Fletcher before it starts...game over.
So much for electabiliy.
Beshear is going to have coat-tails out of this one. That is very bad for the You in the Republican Party.
I can't wait to vote for Beshear.
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