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Friday, January 25, 2008


I happened to see Ann Northup today and she was not shy about saying she was still leaning toward jumping in the 3rd District race. I also talked to Chris Thieneman earlier this week and it struck me how both of them size up the race pretty much the same way.

First, they both see Yarmuth as vulnerable. The Democratic Congress has greatly dissappointed even a lot of die hard supporters. In a Red State swing district, Yarmuth may be seen as a "one-term" wonder by the voters come November, especially if Hillary Clinton has to write off Kentucky early.

Second, fundraising will be difficult for any non-incumbent, but the public interest and earned media of a Northup/Thieneman primary may be significant, and should give them a chance to engage the voters earlier in the year.

And third, they both thought the primary would be run in a positive way and the winner can come out of the May primary with a lot of momentum.

Republicans in Louisville usually don't have county-wide primaries of two strong candidates. But it may be an energizing event inside the party and 2008 promises to be anything but an ordinary year.


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