SurveyUSA Poll Still Has Mitch McConnell Beating Bruce Lunsford 50% To 46%.

You can check out graph.

Here's the filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Kentucky adults 06/13/08, 06/14/08, and 06/16/08. No interviews were conducted on Father's Day, 06/15/08. Of the adults, 797 identified themselves as registered voters. Of them, 626 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election on 11/04/08.

According to the Poll's analysis:

KY Senate Race: McConnell and Lunsford Start Off Neck and Neck: Incumbent Republican US Senator Mitch McConnell leads Democrat Bruce Lunsford by 4 points in a poll with a 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington, and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. McConnell takes 50% of the vote today; Lunsford takes 46%. Among men, McConnell leads by 8 points; among women, McConnell leads by 2. Among voters age 18-34, Lunsford leads by 11 points; among those 35-49, McConnell leads by 15. Among voters 50+, McConnell leads by 5. McConnell holds 87% of Republican voters; Lunsford holds 67% of Democrats. Lunsford leads in the Louisville area by 13 points; McConnell leads in the rest of the state. McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, is running for his fifth term. Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, ran in the Democratic primaries for Kentucky Governor in 2003 and 2007.

Editor's comments: I still see NO way Mitch McConnell will NOT win the election by 53% to 47%, though it is obvious the Senator needs to appeal more to moderates to SEAL the victory.

Update: A day after the SurveyUSA poll results came out, Mitch McConnell has released the results of his own internal polling. Here it is:

McConnell Maintains Strong Lead Over Lunsford in Latest Polling

McConnell leads 50% to 39%; 58% approve of job performance

Today Senator Mitch McConnell’s reelection campaign released results of a statewide survey showing McConnell with a 50% to 39% lead over Democrat Bruce Lunsford. The survey of 600 registered voters was conducted by Voter/Consumer Research June 15-17, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%. In addition to McConnell’s 11% lead, the survey showed that 58% of Kentuckians approve of the job McConnell is doing as Senator.

McConnell enjoys strong support in all of Kentucky’s regions. The survey found McConnell leading Lunsford by nine points in the Lexington media market (50% to 41%); nine points in the Louisville media market (51% to 42%); seven points in the Charleston and Cincinnati markets (46% to 39%); and a whopping 20 points in media markets covering Western Kentucky (54% to 34%).

“Senator McConnell’s job approval is high across all regions and demographics, including among Democrats. Currently, more Democrats approve of the job he is doing than disapprove,” pollsters Jan van Lohuizen and Brenda Wigger said in a memo released outlining the survey’s findings.

“There has been a variety of public polling released…showing the Senate race to be very competitive, if not dead even. These polls have shown Senator McConnell underperforming in Louisville, but doing very well in the Eastern Kentucky counties that make up the Charleston and Knoxville [media markets]. Similarly, public polling has shown Senator McConnell doing better in Eastern Kentucky than he is in Western Kentucky counties. Those findings run counter to election returns from the past two decades and are a primary flaw with some of the recently released data to the public,” the pollsters added.

The 50% to 39% margin for McConnell is identical to a Voter/Consumer Research Survey taken for the McConnell Senate Committee in May.

“It appears that Bruce Lunsford has experienced the old ‘dead cat bounce’ since winning the May primary,” said McConnell Campaign Representative Justin Brasell. “A majority of Kentuckians think Mitch McConnell is doing a good job, and they plan to support Sen. McConnell for reelection this November. We plan on working hard to earn their support.”

The Voter/Consumer Research Survey also tested the Presidential race in Kentucky and found John McCain leading Barack Obama 50% to 31%. Non-partisan political analyst Larry Sabato told the Courier-Journal newspaper in Louisville on June 16 that he believes Lunsford has no chance of winning the Kentucky Senate race, and that he discounted recent public surveys showing a closer race.

"Here's the giant problem. Barack Obama has correctly written off Kentucky. It's a (John) McCain state ... there will be no coattails for Lunsford,” Sabato was quoted as saying. (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008806160404)

“It’s a shame Lunsford took his and Obama’s energy plan to Mayfield today, after we finished our polling last night,” Brasell said. “I suspect their plan to raise taxes, raise prices, and beg the Middle East for more oil would have helped our support even more in Western Kentucky.”