SURVEYUSA Poll: Incumbent Geoff Davis Cruising To Victory (54% To 41%) In 4Th District Congressional Race.

Here is the poll results.

Below is the poll's filtering:

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 4th Congressional District 06/28/08 through 06/30/08; of the adults, 795 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 550 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election.

and below is the Pollster's analysis:

Four Months Out, GOP Incumbent Davis Has Early Lead in KY4 US House Re-Election Contest: In an election for US House of Representatives in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District today, 07/01/08, incumbent Republican Geoff Davis defeats Democrat Michael Kelley 54% to 41%, according to this SurveyUSA election poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, and WLEX-TV Lexington. 21% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican Davis; 9% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Kelley. Independents split. Among voters age 18 to 34, Kelley leads narrowly; among voters age 35+, Davis leads by double digits. Among men, Davis leads by 22 points; among women, Davis leads by 6. Davis was first elected to Congress in 2004; Kelley is a physician from Oldham County. Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, rated "Solid R" by the Cook Political Report, has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+12. Davis won with 52% of the vote in 2006 and with 54% of the vote in 2004. Before Davis, Democrat Ken Lucas held the seat for 6 years; Lucas was Davis' 2006 opponent.

Editorial comment: Geoff Davis' lead cannot simply be explained away as name recognition, as both candidates have had TV ads previously, so this lead is for REAL.